Here’s a discussion at the Modern War Institute on the prospect of Russia employing a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, something I’ve been speculating about since the very start of hostilities. Here’s the bottom line:
Russia and China are both considering the practical application of these weapons in the context of regional conflicts. As a result, we need to accept the possibility of tactical nuclear weapons use. It is arguably folly to discuss military conflict with China and Russia that remains at the conventional level. We need to address the conventional-nuclear transition and establish processes to coordinate between geographic combatant commands and US Strategic Command, as well as with our allies.
We should have been considering this possibility a long time ago.
Using nuclear weapons on the battlespace is a really bad idea. The fallout does not discriminate, and your troops must suit-up as well.
This is the kind of question where it becomes important to try to understand Putin’s and Russia’s actual motivations.
I don’t have much insight into that, so for me, it’s an unknown. But for other reasons, I tend to be skeptical:
– What would be the political or military purpose of using tactical nukes?
As a weapon to accomplish military objectives, I don’t see them being very useful in the current conflict. They are principally designed to attack large formations of enemy forces and break up strongpoints. Ukrainian forces are dispersed. Using them in an urban environment would likely generate a huge number of civilians killed and may allow Russian forces to make some gains in the aftermath, but nothing decisive.
As a political/psychological weapon, the risks for Russia would be massive and the upside would be – what exactly? It would more likely strengthen Ukrainian resolve than force them to accept Russian terms. There is certainly a chance that Putin’s regime would become desperate enough to miscalculate on the risks and try this, but that’s difficult for me to judge at this point.
This is a situation where I hope the Biden administration is maintaining communication with the Russian government and making clear that any use of nuclear weapons would be crossing a Rubicon.
Also think of the corn, what’s China going to think about its fields being destroyed?
I would think that the target would be the morale of the people.
One plausible scenario is if the Russian general staffs believes NATO is imminently about to intervene (or has crossed some redline to be an actual belligerent).
The logical Russian strategy (which they have written about) is escalate to deescalate…. for example, a strike on every military base in Europe.
The key part is “believes”; not what is actually happening on the ground.
I hope there is clear communication between the two sides on where those bottom lines are.