Originally published in The Atlantic Tom McTague wonders how high a price “the West” will pay for Ukraine:
Russia is not Iran. Using sanctions as an economic weapon against Putin comes with real costs for the West, raising the troubling question of whether governments have the will to impose them in any meaningful way to begin with, or the capacity to endure the pain that might follow in the long term. Germany’s decision to suspend the Nord Stream 2 pipeline with Russia, for example, will directly lead to higher energy costs for its citizens, and the turmoil more generally will mean that Europeans in particular will pay increased heating bills at a time when the cost of gas is already sharply high.
In a sanctions war, there is a systemic weakness for the West. One European official involved in drawing up previous sanctions against Russia summed up the difficulty faced in the West. First, this official said, places such as Britain, where I am, are “remarkably constrained†in what they can do. London could seek to seize assets held by Russian oligarchs in Britain, but the Russian state is able to use the strength of London’s judicial system to tie the process in knots. The result is that, by being an open economy with strong rule of law, “you end up being the perfect place for bent money.â€
More important, though, is the question of political will. Throughout the West, people debate not just the leverage any sanctions on Russia might offer, but how to ensure that they do not leave the West exposed. The result, inevitably, is a mix of measures that do not go far enough. The Biden administration, for example, has already reassured Americans that sanctions against Russia will not lead to a jump in energy prices. As the European official told me, Western governments are rarely open with voters about the costs of using a crisis to reduce corrupting entanglements with kleptocracies that have otherwise festered.
The problem is that although the West is richer than Russia, it remains vulnerable. Much of Europe is dependent on Russian oil and gas. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has warned, for example, that Berlin’s decision to suspend the Nord Stream 2 pipeline connecting Russia to Germany will double gas prices in Europe. In Britain, prices are already rapidly increasing thanks to supply-chain restrictions and global energy-market ructions, so further rises would be politically toxic. Beyond oil and gas, analysts have suggested that Russia could limit the export of raw materials such as grain, fertilizer, titanium, palladium, aluminum, and nickel. It could also ban overflight rights for Western airlines traveling to Asia. Each move taken by Russia will likely be met with a response by the West, which could create a tit-for-tat spiral.
I in turn wonder if there is a “West”? I agree with the claim that Russia is a regional superpower, boosted to a global superpower by virtue of its nuclear arsenal. The Europeans are completely capable of handling the present problem themselves with U. S. support limited, effectively, to economic sanctions and negative reciprocity with respect to nuclear weapons. The question is will they?
If they won’t, there is no West, there is only the United States and we should start thinking very seriously about what our actual strategic interests are.
This article misses a key point.
Russia key exports (oil, natural gas, wheat, potash, aluminum, other metals) — are all fungible commodities that are in short supply even if Russia kept exporting the goods.
Its not enough that NATO or liked minded allies endure the pain of not trading with Russia for those commodities; for sanctions to be effective the “West” has to ask non-aligned countries like India, Vietnam, or countries with difficult relations like Iran, China to not trade with Russia or endure shortages in those goods.
I can’t see any non-aligned country doing that unless Western countries provide a reasonable priced alternative. The example would be Saudi Arabia / US promising to replace any Iranian oil hit by sanctions with increased production during the Obama/Trump administration.
But that leaves a circular argument. If the West had substantial spare production capacity of those commodities; then there wouldn’t be any pain for Western countries to endure in the first place.
“The Europeans are completely capable of handling the present problem themselves”
I think those are empty words, meaningless actually. What does “handle” possibly mean, other than abject surrender? Russia can impose its will on Ukraine with relative impunity. Europe and the US have no real economic leverage over Russia, which is largely autarkic economically. Militarily, NATO and the US mostly could not stop a Russian invasion until it was well inside Germany. The Elbe? How ironic.
As long as Russia makes money off Europe, it will be somewhat restrained. Certainly war is an expense in lives and treasure it does not want.
But time is running out. Russia (and Putin) have stated that they believe the Minsk accords are still in force, that the Donbas republics had already declared independence when they negotiated the accords with Kiev, France and Germany. Russia is not actually a signatory to the accords, so its decision to recognize the republics does not change anything about their status during the original negotiations.
It might also be noted that the UN Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2202 (2015), which gives the accords legal status and that all parties (which does not include Russia) are required to fully implement the “Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements adopted on 12 February 2015 in Minsk, Belarus.” UNSC resolutions are binding on all UN members, which includes the US, all members of NATO and the EU, and Russia.
In the meantime, Russia has demanded that the Odessa murders be brought to trial, that the shelling of the Donbas stop, that Ukraine renounce any intention of joining NATO and declare neutrality, and that it again renounce nuclear weapons.
I think we are now in the region of Russian ultimata to the West and Ukraine.
As long as Putin stays out of NATO countries they wont do much. They could actually do some stuff that might at least hurt Russian prestige which seems pretty important to them. Kick them out of the Olympics permanently. No international competitions. No visiting western countries. Would place them closer with China but I think that blows up eventually also.
Steve
“I in turn wonder if there is a “Westâ€? I agree with the claim that Russia is a regional superpower, boosted to a global superpower by virtue of its nuclear arsenal. The Europeans are completely capable of handling the present problem themselves with U. S. support limited, effectively, to economic sanctions and negative reciprocity with respect to nuclear weapons. The question is will they?
If they won’t, there is no West, there is only the United States and we should start thinking very seriously about what our actual strategic interests are.”
This is a perfect synopsis. The question is: is Europe completely capable, really? Both Europe and the US have been so busy redistributing income and pursuing idiotic policies like global warming or wokeism that when we have a real crisis………we are capable of only just sitting holding our dicks in our hands.
steve – you poor stupid idiot.
Next up: I bet Putin goes full boat in today or tomorrow. And then, China’s moves.
Well Putin has just declared war. From my understanding he stated he does not intend to occupy Ukraine — that the goal is to “demilitarize” it — but of course after the speeches from last weekend no one knows what is his definition of “Ukraine”.
Putin’s also warned about outside interference, I hope that is well understood. NATO needs to tread very carefully on how much force and what forces to amass on Eastern borders. Some analysts said that was one way to relieve pressure on Ukraine was to put enough force on Eastern borders to the point that Putin has to divert forces away from the Ukraine. Its based on the observation that Putin has put almost all of Russia’s military capacity into Ukraine areas. In my opinion; Russia would be left with no choice but to counter escalate with the use of strategic arms.
The EU’s population, GDP, per capita GDP, and median per capita income are all enormously greater than Russia’s. They’ve been delegating their own defense to the U. S. for 75 years and convinced themselves it’s a law of nature.
That’s what I meant when I wrote they’re capable—just not quickly. They have the economic ability and personnel to greatly increase their military capabilities to and beyond Russia’s. Just not in the near term.