It’s never too early to start speculating about 2028. That’s what Matthew Continetti is doing in his Wall Street Journal op-ed. In it he opens by considering the present state of the race:
Former Vice President Kamala Harris leads with 31%, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 22%. From there, the drop-off is steep. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is in third place with 9%. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is close on Mr. Buttigieg’s heels. The only other Democrat to earn more than 5% in national polls is Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.
You may notice that at this point everything is proceeding exactly as I have predicted. I’ll repeat myself: barring the entry of a dynamic, new figure not presently running Kamala Harris is the favorite to be the Democrats’ standard-bearer in 2028. Her 2024 loss will be explained away by the party in the same way she has: she didn’t have enough time; it was all Joe Biden’s fault.
He continues with some prognostication:
Socialism’s rise raises troubling questions about the party’s future. The shift has electoral consequences. A radicalized base, animated by anti-Trump resistance, may be an asset in special and midterm elections. But open borders, social disorder and transgender ideology have hurt Democrats in presidential years. They will do so again if unchecked.
Success in 2028 thus depends on finding an appealing candidate who embodies change not only from Mr. Trump, but also from the Democrats’ reputation. That requires exactly the sort of self-examination Democrats are determined to avoid. The Democratic National Committee won’t release its autopsy of the 2024 election—a telling refusal to debate the party’s future.
For the moment, an ascendant left celebrates presidential aspirants who oppose Mr. Trump’s values and policies root and branch. What happens, though, when the moment passes and the public must decide between two non-Trump alternatives?
He continues by examining various candidates’ shortcomings.
The question that needs to be asked is who can win in a Democratic primary? The Democratic primary voter is more likely to be progressive, more likely to be black, and more likely to be a party insider than the average Democratic voter. That rules out most of the candidates stepping forward. Since 2008, Democratic nominations have been determined in large part by which candidate consolidates black primary voters early. White candidates who succeeded did so only after receiving visible validation from trusted black political figures. That has not happened yet.
Every single one of the present candidates has serious what are called in sales “knock-offs”, i.e. disqualifications.
I continue to believe that, unless she withdraws from the race, Kamala Harris remains the odds-on favorite. She is the most experienced and the most acceptable to a larger number of likely Democratic primary voters. At present, there is no visible path for another candidate to assemble a broader and more cohesive primary coalition.
