As a warm-up for the upcoming presidential debates between George W. Bush and John Kerry, I went back and read James Fallows’s brilliant analysis of Mssrs. Bush’s and Kerry’s debating styles from a few months ago in The Atlantic Monthly, “When George Meets John”. If you haven’t read the article you should go there now and read it. I couldn’t recommend it more highly. Fallows really did his homework and I believe that his analysis is spot-on.
I expect both candidates to be in their element in these debates. Bush is simply the best there is at staying “on message”. He will quickly turn every question from whatever source on whatever subject back to his core message. That has been his debate style since his debates with Ann Richards in Texas. And Kerry has been practicing thinking quickly on his feet in debates since he was in prep school.
Anyone who expects a blowout or rout in one direction or another simply hasn’t been paying attention. So what can we expect in the presidential debates?
Kerry’s supporters have made a strategic error with respect to Mr. Bush. The “Bush is stupid” meme is a perfectly good rallying cry for the base with only one, tiny, little flaw: it’s false. As Fallows point out in the article cited above people who knew Bush in business school or in Texas saw him as having a keen intellect. No, he’s not an intellectual. Few of our presidents have been.
Mr. Kerry can’t win the election solely by rallying his base.
Hammering continuously on the “Bush is stupid” meme tends to lower the expectations for his performance. When he exceeds the expectations, he wins. Contrariwise Bush has, historically, praised his opponents. That’s exactly what he did in the debates with Ann Richards, John McCain, and Al Gore. This tends to raise the overall impression of his performance when he at least holds his own. It’s a clever strategy.
And that’s what the debates are about. Not policies or realities. Impressions.
Armed with little more than a lifetime of watching presidential debates starting with Kennedy—Nixon in 1960 and hubris I’m going to lurch into the chancy world of prediction.
I predict that Bush will be Bush and Kerry will be Kerry. I expect few surprises, maybe none. Bush will be “on message”. He will not confront attack but will deflect it. He will reinforce the impression he has already created with most of the American public of confidence and resolve. Since that’s what Bush needs to do I expect him to succeed.
Mr. Kerry has a much higher hurdle to clear. This will be his last chance to create a first impression with the largest audience he’s faced in his political career and the highest stakes. I don’t have any doubts that he will look presidential. Heck, he’s been looking presidential for thirty years and been working at looking presidential for probably fifty years. He needs to create an impression of resolve and I expect him to succeed there, too.
But he also has to make a connection with the people. This will be his greatest challenge. He won’t have a daughter on stage with him telling about hamster rescues. He’ll need to make this connection himself. Can he do it? That’s the $64 billion question.
UPDATE: Matthew Yglesias and The Moderate Voice pretty much agree with me. Says Yglesias:
George W. Bush’s rhetorical skills are unmatched. Like regular people he eschews details in favor of broad principles and compelling moral language, positively exuding the combination of decency and boldness that people are looking for in a leader. The debates are going to be a rough ride for Kerry, whose strength lies in the formal address. If he manages to get through the ordeal without utterly humiliating himself, I’ll be happy.
TMV:
Indeed, Bush has won all major debates he has been in during his professional career (with the exception of possibly a couple of lackluster performances in the early Republican primaries until he found his footing).
Kerry is going to have is work cut out for him.
UPDATE: Linked to Beltway Traffic Jam.
