George Friedman asks six very good questions about the prospect of war with China:
- Who will start the war?
- Why would they wait to start the war?
- What does the aggressor hope to accomplish, and is it worth the risk?
- Will the war be on land, in the air, at sea, or some combination of the three?
- Are their respective economies healthy enough to support a war?
- Why would either side leak its intentions?
Given recent news stories war with China may already have begun and it has started in space or, at least, “near space”.
I have several thoughts on this. First, I think that war with China is extremely unlikely. Or, at least, China is extremely unlikely to start a war with us.
Second, I think that war with China would be economically ruinous for the United States but not for China.
And, as I have said before including recently, we are pursuing our own self-destruction so assiduously and enthusiastically we are our own worst enemy.
The US will start the war with China. War is our solution to everything. Since 1991, the US has started 251 wars/interventions, always against countries that are at peace with us and our allies:
https://mronline.org/2022/09/16/u-s-launched-251-military-interventions-since-1991-and-469-since-1798/
It will be an air/sea war, because we cannot make landings on the China coast. The era of amphibious warfare is over, except for ministates like Granada.
We will lose the the war handily, our economy will be crippled, and our empire will collapse. The Europeans will make their separate peace with Russia.
Please note that the CPC has stated its main goals to raise the remaining 600 million Chinese peasants to international middle class standards and to refocus its economy on internal business rather than import/export businesses. That requires a generation of peace. So China will avoid war if possible.
The US needs war now, because the power of Russia and China is continually growing. Note that the real economies of Russia and China (manufactures, ores, food…) is more than twice the size of the US’, and that lead is expanding.
The current war on weather balloons indicates that panic and desperation have set in in Washington’s elite, and they might do anything.
Those are good questions albeit ones that are difficult to answer and are contingent and situational.