- Is Russia expansionary?
The remaining questions assume that the answer to the first question is “Yes”.
- In 2024 Denmark spent 2.37% ($9 billion) of its GDP on defense. Its military resources devoted to Greenland consist of a handful of patrol vessels. What percentage of its GDP would Denmark need to spend to defend Greenland against a Russian invasion?
- In 2024 Canada spent 1.37% ($30 billion) of its GDP on defense. Its military resources devoted to Nunavut, its northernmost territory, consists of an alert station, a training facility, an airport, and a naval facility. What percentage of its GDP would Canada need to spend to defend Nunavut against a Russian invasion?
- Germany spends 2.12% ($98 billion) of its GDP on defense. Given the present state of its military, how much would Germany need to spend to defend itself against a Russian invasion?
- Is it just or equitable for our NATO allies to freeride on the United States?
- Assuming that our NATO allies continue to freeride on the U. S. and depend on U. S. military deterrence, how much would the U. S. need to spend on defense to provide an adequate deterrence?
I don’t believe in colonialism whether we’re talking about Denmark’s colonies or U. S. colonies. I think that all colonies including Greenland and Puerto Rico should be given their freedom.
I think there are several possible reasons for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. One is that it is expansionary. Another is it considers an anti-Russia Ukraine that is a member of NATO an unacceptable risk to Russia itself and ethnic Russians in Ukraine. Yet another is economic which I think is farfetched.
Not to be cute, but what’s the definition of expansionary? For the reason you cite, plus Sevastopol, l think Russia would not view that as expansionary, but defensive. YMMV
To say what the US defense budget would look like would require data and expertise not within my grasp. Just “less.”
That said, arguing just on principle, NATO countries should be shouldering so much more of the load. We are functionally broke. When your debt service is what ours is, and you must print to the point of inflation, you are broke.
We’re spending considerably less in real terms than we did at peak and about a third of the percentage of GDP. Since the assumption is that the Russians are expansionary, we are definitionally not deterring them at present spending levels so I would say we need to spend more.
The 2022 Istanbul agreement, initialed by both Russia and Ukraine, left all of Donbas under Ukrainian sovereignty It implemented Minsk I & II. This agreement proves that Russia did not have any expansionist aims then. However, the US veto of that agreement changed everything. Now Russia does have territorial aims, and it will get them.
When I enumerated Russia’s goals yesterday, I forgot the big one. Russia wants NATO to be reduced to its 1992 membership: no Poland, no Lithuania, no Hungary, no Austria, no Checkia or Slovakia, no Romania, no Moldova, no Bulgaria, no Latvia, no Estonia, no Finland, no Sweden.
Our utterly delusional “Elites” are ignoring Russia’ publicly stated goals and demands. Because of that, a major war involving all of Europe and North America and the Pacific is on the table. We are 1 second from midnight on the Atomic Clock.
The main, maybe only threat to world peace is the US. A massive demilitarization of the US is absolutely necessary. Cut the defense budget by 80%. No Marines, no carriers, no heavy bombers, no overseas bases, no alliances.
Dave Schuler: What percentage of its GDP would Denmark need to spend to defend Greenland against a Russian invasion?
Denmark is part of NATO (a founding member). NATO Europe spends 2% of its sizable GDP on defense.
I think the miles of military vehicles they had on the road to Kiev at the start of the invasion (after the attack on the airport failed) shows that they are expansionary, plus Putin saying in interviews he wants to re-establish the Russian empire.
Not economic? I guess it’s just coincidence that they decided to invade after GDp growth had stalled. Right after Ukraine was leaving Russian power grid to join EU. Mumblings about Ukraine joining NATO, which never got serious, have been going on for years. Russia ignored them.
Finally, we sit thousands of miles away. If they arent expansionary and seen that way by their neighbors why did Sweden and Norway finally join NATO after trying to stay neutral for so long. I think they know what there Russians are thinking better than we do.
Steve
So, your view is that Denmark does not have a heightened obligation to defend its own colonial empire? And that freeriding on the U. S. is completely reasonable and acceptable?
My own view is that Russia is not expansionary but IS irredentist. Not much comfort for Ukraine or the Baltics in that but IMO the likelihood of Russia’s invading Poland is vanishingly low unless the Poles march on Kaliningrad or something equally provocative.
I also think that Putin’s invasion of Ukraine could have been avoided by 1) ending the talk of Ukraine’s joining NATO 2) not (at the least) conniving at the overthrow of the legitimately elected pro-Russian Ukrainian government 3) the new Kyiv government’s not looking the other way as militias went after ethnic Russians in the Donbas.
All of that notwithstanding I think our support of Ukraine’s effort against the Russian invasion is correct. Just for different reasons than given in the linked piece. I also think that oversight of our aid to Ukraine is a practical necessity, difficult and dangerous as it is. Not doing so is irresponsible on our part. We should be requiring close oversight to provide our aid.
Ethnic Russians had their own militias. Russia fomented what was essentially civil war in the area. Russia wanted to control Ukraine but Ukraine noticed that countries making ties with the EU instead of Russia were more economically prosperous. Anyway, Russia has shown its military proficiency is lacking and they have lost so much equipment and people they wont be invading Poland. If the initial invasion of Ukraine had worked it would have been different. However, once they recuperate I think we can expect something similar in the Baltics. They will claim they have Nazis there. They are tearing down statues of Stalin. The ethnic Russians can’t speak Russian as an official language.
As a reminder again, many if not most of those ethnic Russians in the Baltics and Ukraine are there because the Russians killed and deported a lot of the native population and then imported Russians to take over the prime land. For us that’s an abstraction but for people living there it’s stuff done to their grandparents. Plus, being ruled by Russians has left them poor.
Also, I think the distinction between irredentist and expansionary is not all that meaningful. Either way they are trying to take over someone else’s sovereign nation.
Steve
That’s an a priori statement. There’s no way to refute it. You will believe it regardless. Notice that none of our major European allies are behaving as though they believe it. Particularly Germany.
Dave Schuler: So, your view is that Denmark does not have a heightened obligation to defend its own colonial empire?
Denmark has a duty to defend Jutland. They also have a duty to defend New York City. After the attacks of 9/11, Danes fought and died in Afghanistan—the only time Article Five of the NATO treaty has been invoked. Denmark is spending more on the military than what NATO and the United States had determined was necessary. That may increase somewhat in the light of Russia’s belligerence.
The front line is in Ukraine, not in Jutland or in Greenland.
Dave Schuler: That’s an a priori statement. There’s no way to refute it.
Consequently, so is your position that Russia is not expansionist. There is little doubt that Poland would be much more worried about Russia if Russia hadn’t been stopped in Ukraine, keeping in mind that Poland was once part of the Soviet sphere.
ETA: Denmark and Greenland have already agreed that Greenland can become independent when they are ready.