As the campaign season moves into the fall and pollsters turn from Americans to registered voters to likely voters, the opinion polls become increasingly meaningful. At 538 Nate Silver comments on the recent polls:
Hillary Clinton’s lead in the polls has been declining for several weeks, and now we’re at the point where it’s not much of a lead at all. National polls show Clinton only 1 or 2 percentage points ahead of Donald Trump, on average. And the state polling situation isn’t really any better for her. On Thursday alone, polls were released showing Clinton behind in Ohio, Iowa and Colorado — and with narrow, 3-point leads in Michigan and Virginia, two states once thought to be relatively safe for her.
It’s also become clearer that Clinton’s “bad weekend†— which included describing half of Trump supporters as a “basket of deplorables†on Friday, and a health scare (followed by news that she had been diagnosed with pneumonia) on Sunday — has affected the polls. Prior to the weekend, Clinton’s decline had appeared to be leveling off, with the race settling into a Clinton lead of 3 or 4 percentage points. But over the past seven days, Clinton’s win probability has declined from 70 percent to 60 percent in our polls-only forecast and by a similar amount, from 68 percent to 59 percent, in our polls-plus forecast.
Read the whole thing.
The transition I mentioned above (from polling Americans to polling registered voters to polling likely voters) brings with it an illusion of movement. The greater likelihood is that the transition just makes the polls more similar to the eventual outcome.
I continue to believe that, barring some catastrophe, Hillary Clinton will be elected president. What the polls should signal to us is that the landslide, even an electoral landslide, that some had hoped for and others feared is unlikely to materialize. That in turn makes the “downballot effects”, the effect of the presidential election on Senate, House, governor’s, and local races is unlikely to be pronounced.
Agreed. Discounting the true believers, people will vote against the candidate they don’t like. Not having a good alternative, people will find ways to vote the way they normally would vote. Will be another tight election. Wouldn’t count Trump out since Hillary is such a poor campaigner.
Query- You think our next election is like this? So much of this is just bizarre. I can’t believe people were taking seriously the claims thatClinton has end stage Parkinson’s. I see a fair amount of Parkinson’s in the normal course of things, and we have a functional neurosurgeon so we do a lot of DBS surgery so we see a lot of end stage Parkinson’s. The fact that stuff like that was even remotely taken seriously is depressing and worrisome.
Steve
I think that unless there are dramatic, obvious, visible changes in American government what we’re seeing is just the beginning rather than the end. I don’t see those changes happening under either of the major party candidates.
It’s not just “people”. That assertion was made by a physician. Leaving aside the ethical issues, I thought the claim was extreme.
I do think that the multiple instances of “fainting” or “stumbling” are troubling and I wish the Clinton campaign would produce a credible explanation for them. Their go-to explanation, dehydration, raises more questions than it dismisses.
National polls really don’t matter, it will come down, as it always does, to a handful of states.
I’m surprised Clinton is doing so poorly, but then again her campaign seems intent on shooting itself in the foot.
Dave- You can get some “physician” to say anything, just like you can get some “economist” to say anything. We no longer filter out the crazy stuff. The opinion of some crackpot matters just as much as someone who knows what they are talking about. Seriously, how much time would it have taken to call a real neurologist, internist or neurosurgeon?
Steve
It’s like that old joke:
Question: What do you call the guy who graduated last in his class at medical school?
Answer: Doctor
I thought Hillary getting elected would be the catastrophe, but maybe you just mean catastrophic for her. Something like losing an argument to a cartoon frog, for example?
I meant catastrophic to her aspirations.