Dennis Blair has an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal on undersea mining but this is the passage that caught my eye:
Nickel is the metal currently most responsible for providing range in electric-vehicle batteries. Global nickel demand for batteries is forecast to grow 20 to 25 times by 2040, and market analysts expect significant shortages in two to three years. Russia is one of the largest suppliers of class 1 battery-grade nickel, and Chinese interests control production elsewhere in Asia, mostly underneath rainforests in the Philippines, New Caledonia and Indonesia.
To electrify half the cars and trucks Americans purchase by 2030, the Biden administration’s target, the U.S. will need to secure more than 650,000 tons of battery-grade nickel each year. Annual domestic nickel production amounts to about 18,000 tons. Recycling and conservation can go only so far. Securing new supplies of battery-grade nickel should be a priority for achieving America’s energy security goals.
Total global nickel production is about 2.5 million metric tons and that has been fairly stable for a decade. Indonesia is by far the largest producer. 650,000 tons over eight years is about 80,000 additional tons per year. That’s more than the increase over the last 20 years. And Russia’s production (250,000 metric tons/year) is now out of reach and probably will be for the foreseeable future.
The balance of the piece deals with the abundance of nickel available beneath the ocean floor. Frankly, I don’t believe that we can expand production the necessary amount over the specified period regardless of where it’s mined.
And then there’s the question of whether battery production can be ramped up to the necessary level but that’s a different subject.
I can see Joe Biden blubbering about transformation, steve and his ilk waxing eloquently about electric cars and solar energy…….
I’d like to build a world a home
And furnish it with love
Grow apple trees and honey bees
And snow white turtle doves
I’d like to teach the world to sing
In perfect harmony
I’d like to hold it in my arms
And keep it company
I’d like to see the world for once
All standing hand in hand
And hear them echo through the hills
For peace throughout the land
I’m suddenly thirsty…….
There’s been some growth in the total U. S. market share of hybrids and EVs (as a single category) very recently. To meet the target production would need to increase by an order of magnitude. There is no evidence that is possible. If the claim is that production will “ramp up” over time, the amount of “ramping” in the later years will need to be that much higher.
One of the major problems is battery production. The reject rate is quite high.
Since hybrids and EVs remain a niche product, that’s not much of a problem but that’s not what’s being discussed.
Technically; the batteries for new EV’s today are enough for all new US cars to be hybrids.
A Prius/Highlander/Rav4 hybrid has a < 2 kWh battery. A Tesla 3 uses a 50-82 kWh battery. Tesla sold 300K cars in the US in 2021. The batteries for those 300K Tesla's could power 12 million hybrids.
US sales were 15 million cars in 2021.
Its the reason why the engineers at Toyota seem befuddled why EV's were emphasized over hybrids if the goal were to reduce CO2 emissions.
Total U. S. passenger vehicle sales were about 17 million for each of 2018 and 2019.
Yes, selecting EVs over hybrids is puzzling. Hybrids might be doable. I don’t believe that EVs are. They’re niche vehicles—second cars for citydwellers.
One more point: complete fleet turnover is about 20 years.
I prefer Kumbaya but to each his own. Anyway, battery technology has changed so much so quickly I dont expect it to suddenly become stagnant like you guys do. I expect changes and then either the rest of the markets adapt to produce the needed materials or they dont. I think history shows that in general markets figure it out but if they dont this time then maybe it takes longer which doesnt really strike me as the end of the world. If you set some target for 2035 and it ends up 2050 we will be OK.
Steve