I don’t have much to say this morning. I was up all night in excruciating pain. Just something that happens every once in a while.
It sounds like Puerto Rico is in rough shape and Florida is expecting the worst. Send your prayers their way. Or your thoughts. And send money—much better than sending stuff. I usually give through Catholic Charities. If you earmark a contribution for specific disaster relief, they commit to devoting 100% of your contribution to relief for that disaster. I’ve known people who’ve volunteered or worked for Catholic Charities and IMO they’re credible.
Yes send money, since prayer has never been shown to do anything, except reinforce religious superstition.
Give to local charities, not the Red Cross.
I’m glad I’m not living there anymore, but am concerned or the friends we left behind. I’m glad to see that the people in my former community are taking this storm very seriously.
Second Catholic Charities.
It’s going to be a shit storm no matter where actual landfall is.
Can’t even imagine trying to evacuate from the southeast coast of Florida. There’s only way to go and there’s basically one route.
Tried unsuccessfully to get my inlaws to leave Jacksonville. They evacuated for a storm several years ago and spent 22 hours on I 75 so they’ve said never again. They rode out Matthew last year so hope this one isn’t worse for them.
Same thing CS. We are physically in upper Wisconsin right now. So can only watch and can only encourage evacuation of in-laws. No dice. Frustrating.
“Riding out” a storm is an okay strategy until it isn’t. Factors to consider include your own health and physical condition, where you are, and to what risks you are exposed.
“…is an okay strategy until it isn’t.”
Yeah. One of my favorite lines since it seems to “inform” much sloppy thinking. And I’m a cold realist. Before we purchased we inspected flood and surge maps for the very reason of an event like this. In theory it would take a 12 foot surge hitting Naples straight from the west to reach us. The primary risks in Irma should be possessions related: wind (trees onto the roof, flying objects), power out and looting. The looting has actually started but I bet the media downplays.
Brother and sister in law are across the street from Gulf. That could really suck. But they are healthy, stocked, and can take a back route last minute to our house if necessary.
Their parents are 88-85, and like good Catholics decided they are in Gods hands. Literally physically refusing to move. A calming state of mind I guess. But foolish and potentially gruesome. All we can do is lobby and hope from afar. Very stressful couple days for my wife and SIL.
The advance warning and modern prediction capabilities undoubtedly save many lives but it’s like watching a slow motion train wreck.
I think the aftermath could be very bad from this since so much of the state will be affected (power outages, supply chains, etc.) So the older folks, even if they make it through the storm unharmed, might be in a bad way for quite some time.
Just to add a few more, Mennonite Relief, Salvation Army and as time permits, read Propublica’s articles on the Red Cross.
Things are bricks and sticks and clay. I just hope people come out with their lives.
https://video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?fr=yhs-mozilla-002&hsimp=yhs-002&hspart=mozilla&p=red+red+wine+Bob+marley+youtube#id=2&vid=46ad48a2e50e52aa12b1cd28a0aed7c7&action=click
My grandfather never liked the Red Cross. When he was stationed in the India/Burma/Chinese theatre during WWII, the Salvation Army was all over the place giving soldiers free coffee. On the return home, the ship disembarked in San Francisco where the Red Cross had a table waiting on the dock charging the soldiers for coffee.
A huge problem with the storm going up the Florida peninsula is that it will delay aid to the southern part of the state. Florida has prepositioned assets that will hopefully ride out the storm and alleviate that concern somewhat, but there won’t be any resources than can reach the south part of the state for a couple of days after it is hit.
CS and Andy make good points. The power outage is expected (by contractor types) to potentially be a good month. Heat indexes are running 100. That will result in problems for elderly, and mold.
And Andy is correct. The supply chain south has been suspended. How long until replenishments can get there? Tell me how much flooding there is, and if gas station pumps are working by generator. I’m thinking nothing for a week except the pre-positioned stuff.
There’s an old engineer’s joke that an optimist is somebody who sees the glass as half full, a pessimist somebody who sees the glass as half empty, and an engineer somebody who thinks the glass is the wrong size.
Assume the worst and Florida receives a substantial hit. I’m guessing the media take will be on the human interest story, how Washington was caught flat-footed, and in general how terrible Trump is.
My reaction is that there are too many people in South Florida and, indeed, in places where there’s a substantial natural disaster risk more generally. Lately I’ve been seeing some scoffing at that view but, unless it’s politically possible to let people suffer when it’s a foreseeable consequence of their own decisions, there are costs involved in having large populations in places where there are substantial natural disaster risks. Who should bear the costs?
Agree that there are too many people. We just build w/o regard to capacity, because we can make it work, until it doesn’t (as you noted). Not only do we have too many people, they don’t want to build to codes that would be adequately protective and don’t want to have the necessary drainage to reduce flooding. That all costs money. So, I think the bulk of costs should be borne by those who did not want to pay them up front.
That said, I have no problem with federal funds to help with the emergency part, the initial first response. However, I don’t think we should be putting first responders at risk, unless they so choose, to rescue those who knowingly stayed and took a chance.
We use Episcopal Charities.
Steve
“Too many people” is subjective, and unenforceable. But I don’t think that’s what you are driving at. Of course the people in an area should bear the costs. Things would sort themselves out. But we don’t like markets, we like subsidy. We pay very sizable hurricane insurance premiums, and we knew the potential risks of the location. No tears. It could be a full year disruption. That’s not insurable. It’s called life happens.
Politically I think it’s all but impossible to fully allocate costs. However, it is a very interesting debate as to how to truly allocate all costs. Cost of FEMA or other rescue efforts for example. But then, how do we allocate transfer payments. Tornado, wildfire or earthquake risks, etc. How about the national defense?
As for the narrow issue of codes. In fact Florida has the strongest codes in the nation, by law. The homes can take a lot. Makes construction costs go up. And the consumer pays, as they should. The pre-1995 homes are a different story. And the mobiles. I just don’t get that. I pissed Tasty off by noting the absurdity of building a hurricane alley city 10-20 feet under sea level, protected and not well kept (thanks Bill Clinton) by dikes only capable of a CAT3 or CAT4 storm. But it’s like the mobile home people. You now get not into hazard insurance, but burial insurance.
Here we go again.
Move DisneyWorld, Universal Studios, other tourist attractions, ports, refineries, and chemical plants to Ohio, and the people will follow. Hurricane alley will be depopulated, quickly. Problem solved.
We could combine them: Disney RefineryWorld & Universal Chemical Studios.
If you have driven to Orlando, FL for a family vacation, you are the problem. Cars need gas refined in hurricane alley. The plastic used for the amusement park were created in hurricane alley. The people who work in the tourist industry live in hurricane alley.
What about the lawn care guys, the garbage men, and other people supporting the rich and/or old folks living in Naples, FL.? I doubt that the workers are flown in from Ohio every morning to do the jobs that the rich and/or old folks refuse to do. It is beside the point as to how well the rich person researched the area because they need a lot of ‘little people’ to get anything done.
Evacuating is not like packing the car for a vacation, but it can cost as much as a vacation. Katrina was one of the better evacuations, but Gustav (2008) was a nightmare for many due to Southeast Louisiana and the Mississippi Gulf Coast evacuating at the same time.
@Drew
I am glad that your wife and daughter are safe. Hopefully, they put-up or took the irreplaceable items.
@Icepick
Hopefully, you, your wife, and daughter got out. I assume you know the drill.