I agree with the conclusions expressed in Steve Sacks’s post at The Diplomat on the strengths and weaknesses of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army:
Xi Jinping and the Central Military Commission recognize that the introduction of advanced weaponry to a military force that is ill-trained and ill-managed will not result in a PLA that can achieve the party’s strategic objectives. However, new hardware enables Beijing to perpetuate its projected images of military strength while concealing continued shortfalls related to military reform.
U.S. defense analysts and policymakers should watch for indications of improvements across Xi’s identified critical PLA shortfall areas to generate clear and comprehensive assessments of progress within both PLA modernization and reform campaigns. Indications of continued progress can provide critical insight into party leaders’ confidence in the PLA’s ability to compete, fight, and win wars, while also highlighting areas of continued shortfall throughout the force. If military analysts and policymakers focus solely on the procurement of new hardware, longer range missiles, more capable ships, and stealthier aircraft, they risk only seeing half the picture and risk making the PLA out to be 10 feet tall.
Although the more aggressive stance that China has taken lately towards its neighbors does concern me, I’m not as concerned about the threat posed by the CPLA as many people in the U. S. for two reasons. First, I think much of the CPLA is focused internally. Second, I think that military doctrine is a vital force multiplier and China has several handicaps in that regard that they cannot address either with new hardware or training.
The real difference is the ability to project power. IOW, any war with China would be fought in the Chinese littoral and not the US littoral.
I don’t know enough about CPLA doctrine to comment, but it is definitely geared toward a conflict with us and does seek to take advantage of our weak points. A real limitation for them will be their inexperience with air and naval warfare, especially at scale.
What I meant, Andy, is that their military doctrine is almost completely untested and, as von Moltke famously observed, no battle plan survives first contact with the enemy. The question becomes what happens then? And I believe the CPLA has real weaknesses in that area which will be difficult to surmount.
On the other hand. Being aware of your weakness and working aggressively to address it can be a source of strength.
My point of reference is the emergence of Japan between 1860-1920. Japan had not fought a war for 250 years when they fought the Sino-Japanese War in 1895 followed by the Russo-Japanese War in 1904. Japanese technology, doctrine had been obsolete prior to Perry yet the Japanese’s willingness to incorporate Western thinking on both led to shocking Japanese victories (to contemporary observers) in both wars.
I will state the PLA knows its military doctrine was quite out of touch around the time of the Gulf War and the Serbian War and have been working 20+ years to rectify that. A piece of evidence is how the Chinese utilize the “cyber” aspect of conflict.
“any war with China would be fought in the Chinese littoral and not the US littoral” — that could be argued as being as advantageous for the Chinese. Shorter supply lines is a key advantage.
But it all a pointless argument, in any hot conflict between the China and American treaty allies, there is a substantial chance it ends with a catastrophic nuclear exchange.
“any war with China would be fought in the Chinese littoral and not the US littoralâ€
That is utterly false. The Chinese (and the North Koreans, as well as the Russian) have submarines that can launch ballistic and cruise missiles. They just launched a new one. The East and South China seas are too shallow to be really good submarine operational areas, but the west coast of the US is ideal. In the event of a war with China (or North Korea), there would be numerous submarine launched attacks on America cities, perhaps as deep inland as St. Louis.
In WW II, German Uboats operated in the Caribbean and along the east coast of the US.
And yes, a war with China will probably go nuclear, because China will defeat the US in a conventional war, and the US will choose nuclear armaggedon rather than accept defeat.