Scenarios

Here’s what FiveThirtyEight said in anticipation of the South Carolina primary:

Here, according to our model, is what the post-Super Tuesday delegate count could look like following a big Biden win in South Carolina. Keep in mind that these represent the average of thousands of simulations; individual outcomes will vary based on factors such as Biden’s margin of victory in South Carolina, whether anyone drops out before Super Tuesday, and so on.

An outcome like the one in the table wouldn’t be a disaster for Sanders, by any means. He’d still be projected to end up with 578 delegates, on average after Super Tuesday, counting both delegates won before Super Tuesday and on Super Tuesday itself. In other words, Sanders would still pick up 39 percent of the total delegates awarded so far. Biden would be next with 430 delegates (29 percent), with Michael Bloombeg in third with 200 delegates (13 percent).

But you can also see how momentum could start to turn against Sanders. By “momentum,” I don’t mean something ineffable, but rather the shifts in the polls that could occur as the result of Super Tuesday, as well as decisions by other candidates to stay in the race or drop out.

Biden didn’t just get the most votes in the South Carolina primaries. He won by almost 30 points, more than their “big win” scenario. Sanders actually won a lower percentage of the votes than he did in 2016. Frankly, I doubt that any facts will be able to debunk the claim that Sanders will broaden the base because that’s his greatest chance for victory in November. But the facts actually say that most Democrats are voting against Sanders. His supporters are, essentially, the same “BernieBros” that supported him in 2016.

What I believe is happening now is that most Democrats want to defeat Trump but they also prefer an actual Democratic candidate over Sanders. Nonetheless, I hear whispers of a bolshevist strategy to demand the nomination on the basis of a plurality of the committed delegates.

Let’s consider a few scenarios of what may happen in November.

A. Sanders wins by a popular vote and electoral landslide and has broad coattails.

Sanders’s supporters are already preparing a slate of like-minded candidates to oppose more moderate Democrats. At least some of those are likely to be elected. He does not come into office with the Democratic Party apparat but with appointees of his own choosing. Sanders will rule by executive order and will be abetted by like-minded judges. Republicans lose the Senate and aren’t in a position to block Sanders’s agenda.

B. Sanders wins narrowly and does not have broad coattails.

Sanders comes into office with the usual suspects, the Democratic Party apparat, and governs pretty much as Obama did. Republicans hold the Senate and are in a position to block Sanders’s agenda.

C. Sanders is nominated and loses big in November.

That would be a disaster for Democrats but not for the Democratic establishment. They would live to fight again. Trump would claim and have a mandate.

D. Sanders is nominated and Trump wins about the way he did in 2016.

Four more years of Trump vs. The Resistance.

E. Any candidate other than Sanders is nominated in the Democratic Convention and his supporters vote for whomever that is.

This is the dream scenario for Democrats but IMO that’s exactly what it is—a dream.

F. Any candidate other than Sanders is nominated in the Democratic Convention but his supports do not vote for whomever that is. Trump wins big.

This is the real nightmare scenario for the Democratic Party. I don’t know if it will be able to survive such a schism.

I think the likelihoods are C, D, and F, in that order.