Ruminations on the 2022 Midterm Elections

The electorate can be divided into three different groups: those who vote for a candidate, those who vote against a candidate, and those who don’t vote at all. That last group is sometimes referred to as “disaffected” or “disengaged”. I don’t think either of those is apt.

Solid turnout numbers aren’t available yet but some trends are already apparent. The turnout was higher where there were contested elections. Said another way the more “safe” seats, the lower the turnout. I don’t think that’s a sign of either rebelliousness or disinterest. I think it’s a sign of despair. Voting is futile. It may well be the case that fewer than 50% of registered voters bothered to show up. It was 55% in the last midterm election and that was a record-breaking turnout.

Many are writing about the 27% turnout among young voters as encouraging. Are they kidding? It suggests to me that 73% of young people think that voting is useless or, at the very least, unimportant. I don’t think we should be encouraged by that.

In my own home precinct turnout was around 80% of registered voters.

I also think that far more people vote against candidates than vote for them. Consequently, it seems to me a reasonable conclusion that there are enough people who fear or hate the Republicans that they greatly reduced the scale of the Republican victories. I don’t see many signs that Republicans are taking that message to heart. And all of that despite Democrats’ best efforts over the last two years. That doesn’t bode well for the Republicans in 2024.

Here in Illinois the Republican Party is effectively supine and has been for nearly 20 years. The only Republican candidates that win statewide offices are those who fund their own campaigns. That’s something else not generally recognized. Today a candidate requires institutional support. You’re either supported by the party organization, supported by a union (and nowadays “union” means public employees’ union), or you’re rich enough to fund your own campaign.

Candidates for Chicago mayor are lining up and they fit that model. There’s an incumbent, an establishment candidate, candidates from each public employees’ union, and one rich guy. Probably not a billionaire but rich.

There hasn’t been a Republican candidate for Chicago mayor in a decade, presumably because no candidate can get that institutional support and no billionaire wants to run.