I strongly recommend that you read this interview with Kenneth Rogoff in Finanz und Wirtschaft. As you presumably know Dr. Rogoff is best known for his scholarship on financial crisis. Topics in the interview include the state of the economy, where the next financial crisis will issue from (China), why interest rates are so low, and Bitcoin.
Wait a minute, the new Fed Chief is a lawyer. Awesome!
Nice piece. Still think there book was a pretty awesome analysis of past financial crises. The fact that so much of the world economy is doing well now supports, I believe, their thesis. While I kind of think he is correct about China, I have no idea when it happens. Reminds of the early 2000s when bank were handing out liars loans. It was pretty clear to me something bad would come of that, but it just took so long.
Steve
I’m willing to be persuaded but his assertion that recovery from financial crises have some sort of predictable periodicity is odd in the extreme. Too many situation specific variables at work. Further, he scoffs at the notion of a predictable periodicity in recessions because of the preceding financial crisis, the very point in my first sentence.
He may be shoe horning events into his thesis.