Let’s consider some major near term national risks:
- Major recession
- Nuclear exchange with North Korea
- Terrorist attack within the United States in which more than 100 people are killed.
- Environmental catastrophe (storm, earthquake, etc.) that seriously affects 10% or more of the American people and in which 1,000 or more people die.
- Civil war
- Cyberattack, solar storm, or EMP with serious real consequences which affects 10% or more of the American people and in which people die.
- Epidemic, particularly of some new disease.
To place some of those into perspective the fires in Northern California this year don’t qualify under D but Hurricane Katrina does.
Here are my questions. Which of those have a 50% or greater likelihood of occurring within the next 2 years? Can we mitigate the risks of any of the items in the list? Should we?
I don’t think that any of those risks have a 50% or greater likelihood and I think the only one against which we should take steps to mitigate is F.
If you can think of any other comparable disasters I haven’t mentioned, put them in comments and I’ll consider adding them to the list.
I think A might be over 50% but it’s difficult to judge (to say the least).
I think F could be over 50% if changed a bit – remove EMP (it’s not a serious concern IMO) and the criteria that people die.
I think that A is 100% over the next six years but 30% over the next two.
Plague, the Spanish Flu in 1918 infected 28% of the US population and killed about 675,000.
Good suggestion. IMO low likelihood but a good suggestion. I’ll add it.
A and C are probably over 50%. NBC, ABC, CBS or OTB (snicker) making mention of Donna Brazile and Warren ratting to Clinton with the obvious………less than 10%
Separately, file this under “C’mon, man.” No sooner does Dave talk about his emerging shingles than I wake up yesterday with a rash. I look at shingles pics (and other rash causes) on the internet and have a sinking feeling. Today at the physicians office they tell me………….shingles. Fortunately I’m on an anti-viral early, and I have a high tolerance for pain. And it’s starting to hurt. You can’t make this shit up.
By the way, the new variable in the economic mix is Yellen getting out. Where will interest rate policy go?
Maybe we need to add a national shingles outbreak to the list.
Only C has a close to 50% chance. We should continue to mitigate against G. Although the efforts to contain Ebola were truly outstanding (attacked of course by the right) it showed we did not have nearly enough high level isolation units and most hospitals really aren’t prepared. We need a good core of people trained for this.
Steve
I’m not going to venture into percentages of the chances a certain crisis has of occuring. However, what concerns me the most, among the options pesented, are F and G.
With our grid lagging behind in the updating that is vitally needed, I think that is an imminent weakness awaiting a terrorist attack.
Epidemics and/or exposure to a biological attack is another scenario in which I don’t think we would fare well in addressing, without a great loss of life.
Also, Drew, sorry to hear about you and shingles. What a bummer!
Heh. Its beginning to buzz, tingle and burn more by the hour. Doctor very non-committal on length of this, even for a doctor. Must have inherently large variance. I think I’d take a deal with the devil for a quick, if painful, 10 day course. I’ve heard horror stories of a month or two.
Contra a comment from a few days ago, they apparently don’t do opioid based pain management for this. Not sure why inflamed nerves and compressed nerves are treated differently. But that seems the fact.
I’ll cast a vote for A. We’re due some sort of recession, it strikes me, and my expectation is Republicans will not handle it well. (In the interest of fairness, I don’t think Democrats would do much better, but they won’t be in charge when this comes).
Other possible issues. Reasonably likely (but under 50%): Some sort of political imbroglio, likely spurred by Robert Mueller’s investigation, with every elected Democrat in the country screaming for Donald Trump’s impeachment, while all the Republicans shrug it off.
Less likely (15% perhaps?): great election turmoil in 2018. Suppose several dozen heavily favored Democratic congressional and gubernatorial candidates lose their elections narrowly, and evidence of irregularities mounts — Russian meddling, voters steered away from the polling places, ballot miscounting, etc.
Another 15% possibility: deaths of one or two liberal Supreme Court Justices, leading to replacements by ultra conservatives after very skimpy Senate procedures. Hearings Monday, with no more than 5 minutes for Democratic questioners, then a voice vote on Tuesday, that kind of thing. Hints of foul play increase the odds, of course.
Guarneri — Don’t take it personally but I think I should avoid reading you for a while. I’ve got a doctor’s appointment of my own scheduled in two weeks, just a 6 month checkup, but if this stuff is catching ….
Fair thee well in my absence!
Other peril. (25-30%) Hackers attack NYC subway system, spacecraft launches from Cape Kennedy, electrical power transmission systems, FAA aircraft control systems, etc.
(25%) Military confrontation between the US and China or between the US and Iran, probably settled by the US backing down. This might spark a nasty White House-Pentagon dispute, with MacArthur-like firings all over the place.
It probably says something about me that I can more easily concoct human-wrought disasters than natural ones. Oh dear.
Mike Shupp
Heh. I never take it personally, I hope others don’t either, if you know what I mean.
I of course wouldn’t wish this on anyone. I read, on the internet so it must be true, that shingles is one of the those viruses you hear about that come through computers. That’s my story and I’m stickin’ to it. So we’ll just blame it on Dave and call it a day.
That (Drew’s shingles) is a freaky coincidence!
I think early diagnosis and initiation of antiviral is key (plus of course individual variation in the immune response.) I was like Drew and found the first signs of rash and looked it up and went immediately to the doc. I can’t say how much of my quick response was from early treatment and how much was relief provided by the prednisone, but the pain really was substantially better in 48 hours. I know steroids are controversial because of immune suppression, but I suspect the benefit of upregulating Il-10 (an immune suppressive cytokine) as a means of calming the inflammation outweighs the need to keep all immune pathways fully activated against the virus. IOW I suspect the Il-10 activation is actually a counterproductive immune response and might be the main pathway that causes the inflammatory neuralgia. I can’t find any research on this but there is circumstantial support for my hypothesis because Il-10 levels rise before, during, and after an outbreak.
oops, what I meant to say is that I suspect Il-10 regulates the counterproductive immune response that might be the main cause of the inflammatory neuralgia.
Recession isn’t going to happen with government spending near an all-time high and growing rapidly year-over-year. Also very supportive of stocks.
I’ve always said, watch up-regulating that Il-10. It might even cause recession.
Seriously, I’m finding that lidocaine patches are helping just fine. (Dave take note.). Although admittedly I’m only at about the 72 hour mark. Fine enough to be cracking bad jokes. Or is it my unregulated Il-10?
Po’ Drew. Po’ Dave. Mama was in serious pain while hers lasted. Best to you both.
I recommend a poultice of Jamaican black castor oil to draw out surface inflammation and ease skin tightness. Enzymes penetrate to help with any digestive disorders. Cross as you both are…
Sorry, boys. Been commenting here so long you feel like family.
Remember that in the years around Katrina, the entire southern coast was scoured by hurricanes. There was Deepwater Horizon, the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, affecting two countries. Also Hurricane Sandy, which also affected two countries. Maybe NAFTA does suck.
I vote for C. One unspecified motive killed over 50. A motivated attack could kill many, many more.
Collapse of the debt bubble and runaway interest/ inflation.
Another war in the Middle East. I honestly don’t know what’s going on in Saudi Arabia but I have a suspicion we are going to be sucked into something unpleasant.