We do not conduct national elections in this country. Consequently, national polls are completely without meaning. That’s why the betting odds on Trump’s being re-elected strongly favor him.
We do not conduct national elections in this country. Consequently, national polls are completely without meaning. That’s why the betting odds on Trump’s being re-elected strongly favor him.
How — the polls in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona show Trump is trailing.
Losing those 3 states would swing the election to Biden.
If you trust the state polls…
At best, I would describe the situation as Trump is keeping it close and has time to turn it around.
Trump is highly motivated and a shrewd campaigner. Wouldn’t count him out till it’s over.
A vote for Biden is really just a vote against Trump, there’s no message in his campaign.
Beats me. I’m just reporting that the betting markets have him up by more than 8 points.
The betting markets also had Elizabeth Warren winning the democratic nomination throughout last fall.
I do not think the betting markets embody special knowledge; rather it embodies conventional wisdom. Remember the betting markets also had Trump losing in 2016.
Trump has some advantages from incumbency, but he has a lot of disadvantages too:
– Joe Biden is not nearly as unpopular as Clinton was. The anti-Biden voting block is a lot smaller than the anti-Clinton block.
– About 4-5 million voters switched from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016. One of the big factors in that switch was Obama’s perceived failure to bring about “change” and Trump’s promise to bring “change” as the most unconventional and outsider candidate in most people’s lifetime. That advantage is gone – Trump is the incumbent, he has a record and his list of accomplishments is thin. Polling indicates the Obama-Trump vote switchers are not happy with Trump.
At this point, I think the factors that allowed Trump to squeak out a victory in a few key states are mostly gone and his record as President isn’t sufficient to overcome that.
And, perhaps the most important factor, is that the economy is already at depression-era levels of unemployment. The effects haven’t been felt fully yet, but I think by November, the economy is not going to be in a good place and the electorate will blame and punish the incumbent President, as they almost always do.
I think Biden is a weak candidate and turn out wont be great for him. Trump voters will turn out at a high rate. So it should be a close election. I expect that there will be some last minute thing that happens that will tilt the election like last time.
Steve
I hope people realize that I’m not rooting for Trump. I’m just concerned that the Democrats have a death wish.
Will there be an insistence on nominating a VP who is so hated she drives Trump turnout up?
Why the difference btw/ polls and betting markets?
1. Time-differential, betting markets are predicting votes in November, while the person answering a phone call is being asked who they would vote for today. A lot of people are worried that Biden is a frail, gaffe-prone candidate, or at least there are random events that are more of a challenge to the challenger.
2. Polls this early usually don’t attempt or have strong likelihood to vote screens. Republican candidates typically tighten as polls move from registered voters to likely voters.
3. I believe (I’ve heard said that . . .) some of the betting markets are influenced by the option to choose “other,” which is a proxy for people who think if Biden flounders, he will be replaced by someone who beats Trump. IOW, any Trump plurality support in the betting markets might be the equivalent of a Biden/ DNC replacement candidate win.
4. They didn’t predict Trump winning in 2016 because state-polling quality was poor in the same direction, and maybe it is still.
If I was a betting man, though, I would bet on Biden.
Oh if it’s about the VP pick; someone should just do pros / cons list for each candidate.
I did the exercise yesterday; my preconceived notion of the best picks turned out weaker then expected while the ones I disliked had more potential. So tougher decision then expected. I have a killer quip when Biden does make his choice through.