I am quoting with permission a comment made at James’s first post on Israel’s war against Hamas (and Hezbollah?):
This is really bad. There are videos of Hamas militants going through houses and executing civilians, and pulling people out of cars and slitting their throats, then taking women and children hostage. It’s got the vibes of Bucha.
I don’t know when the last time something similar happened – when enemy forces were rampaging unchecked in Israeli towns – the last time something similar happened could be as far back as 1948.
This was a massive intelligence failure by the Israelis, and that will likely have domestic political implications. This is especially the case since Israel’s long-standing policy of dividing Palestinian politics is partly responsible for Hamas having a stranglehold on Gaza.
The scale, timing, and execution of the invasion suggest it took months of planning and preparation, all with a high degree of secrecy. Combined with the fact that it just happens to take place on the 50th anniversary of the 1973 war, it’s clear this wasn’t – as some suggest – some quickly cobbled together response to recent events at Al Aqsa.
I suspect that whatever limitations Israel had on the use of force will now be rolled back. It seems likely that Hamas is taking hostages to use as bargaining chips and human shields.
As a political matter, I doubt Israel will settle for anything less than the destruction of Hamas after this. The public will demand it. That means an Israeli invasion and the implications of that are likely to be very bad, not only for the civilians in Gaza, but also for the region generally. The chances of escalation to also have a war along the Lebanese border are not trivial IMO.
The commenter is a regular commenter here and formerly worked in U. S. military intelligence. As you can see the comment was prophetic in that the war already appears to be expanding to the Lebanese border.
I agree materially with his comment. I don’t think we can predict what the intelligence failure portends for Israel internally. I have read claims that the Israeli intelligence services have been organizing opposition to Netanyahu. That could add fuel to the fire. Questions abound:
- Will the conflict spread to the West Bank?
- To Egypt or Syria?
- Will it spread here?
I am sad and a bit depressed that my initial take yesterday has largely turned out to be accurate.
It’s dangerous and uncertain days ahead. I can see nothing good coming out of this conflict.
Hamas sucks, but Gaza has had the highest or among the highest unemployment rate in the world for many years. This year it was running around 45%, probably about 60% among the youth and Gaza has a young population. In that context Hamas offers all of those young men revenge, or least an attempt. Israel may be able to mostly eliminate Hamas but at the price of many thousands of collateral deaths. That guarantees another generation wanting revenge. (Its an honor culture!)
I am also a bit skeptical that they can actually eliminate Hamas. If their intelligence was unable to catch this large organized attack how likely is it that they will be able to nail down Hamas members.
It’s a wicked problem. Both sides keep doing the same thing expecting it to change and it doesnt.
Steve
steve,
Hamas is the government of Gaza. Maybe if Hamas wasn’t so focused on spending all its resources on weapons to murder Israelis, then the unemployment problem in Gaza might not be so bad.
I’m skeptical that Israel can eliminate Hamas as well – It’s one reason I can’t see anything good coming out of this conflict.
Gaza is smaller than Chicago. It can be done. The only question is whether it can be done without eliminating everybody in Gaza in the process.
Netanyahu is not an American politician. IMO he’s an actual tough guy. The question is whether he’s also a fanatic.
“Maybe if Hamas wasn’t so focused on spending all its resources on weapons to murder Israelis, then the unemployment problem in Gaza might not be so bad.”
Seriously? UE is 13% on the West Bank. 45% in Gaza. Katyusha rockets cost about $300 apiece. Hamas claims they launched 5000 rockets. That’s $1.5 million. Unless Iran gave them a discount or gave them for free. Gaza has 2 million people. Let’s assume they imported them over 3 years. You really want to say that if each person had an extra 25 cents a year their unemployment problem would be solved or even mitigated? The problem is the blockade which cuts them off from trade and even the basic importation of stuff they could use to build an industry.
Which of course kind of makes sense from the Israeli POV. If you let them import stuff they can build their own rockets and likely sneak in other weapons. So Israel follows its incentive and creates horrible living conditions in Gaza. So Gaza has 60% of its young men sitting around and doing nothing. So they are humiliated and angry. If they cant have jobs they want revenge. Hamas gives them that. Israel retaliates, who wouldn’t, killing a lot fo those young men breeding the next generation of angry young men. It’s a loop. Whether or not Hamas is a terrorist group or legitimate government is of interest when talking about the legitimacy of a response but really doesnt matter that much. Regardless, Israel will, justifiably, kill a ton of people getting revenge. Hamas or its replacement will make sure they get their revenge.
So do I think 60% unemployment is enough to justify killing women and children. No, so we can and should condemn them, and most fo us will agree that Israel will be justified in a harsh response, but the end result is going to the same as in the past, continuing the revenge loop. And that doesnt even include what happens if the rest of the ME gets involved.
Steve
One thing that strikes me is the sophistication displayed by Hamas. Grenade drops via drones, paragliding assault troops, and several hundred to thousand rocket missiles.
The 600 dead Israel suffered from the two days already exceeds the total from the First Intifadas, Second Intifadas, or the 2006 Lebanon war. Its approaching the scale of losses in the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
And I can’t see any good coming out of this. Sadat started the Yom Kippur War with goals where there could be compromise (the return of Egyptian territory in 1967) and eventually there was compromise. There’s nothing in Hamas strategic goals that could be negotiated by Israel; the demand of trading Israeli for Palestinian hostages is just tactics.
The other tide of foreboding is it feels like a revolution in the nature of warfare is occurring. Ubiquitous drones, missiles cheap or hypersonic displacing fighter aircraft, everything broadcast globally live on tiktok…
There are claims that the number of missiles launched has been considerably more than that.
“Seriously?”
Yeah, seriously steve. It’s not just about rockets or your envelope math. It’s about the fact that Hamas prioritizes military capabilities above all other concerns across many domains because its goals aren’t about good governance and providing services for its people, it’s about war with Israel. And doing that comes with tradeoffs that negatively affect the people of Gaza.
For example, Hamas wants to breed generations of “angry young men.” It wants fighters, not productive citizens who work to improve their own lives.
To me, your argument makes no sense. It is like arguing that the miserable conditions in North Korea are entirely the fault of the US, therefore we ought to feel sympathy for the North Korean government and ignore that spends a huge portion of its GDP on military capabilities and is not at all concerned about a few people starving as long as the regime is secure.
North Korea spends money on tanks, ships, ICBMs and nukes. That’s enough money to affect people. Hamas has none of those. They have cheap rockets and small arms. North Korea doesnt want others entering its country and wont let its people leave. OTOH, people from Gaza want to leave and they would be allowed by Gaza but Israel doesnt allow it very much. Gaza wants to import stuff so it could build an economy but Israel wont let them. They cant import anything that might be ruled dual use, including steel, concrete and even tin cans. Computers and electronics in general are severely limited or not allowed. It doesnt matter what Hamas wants, Gaza cant build an economy with those levels of restrictions. So North Korea is isolated because they want to be. Gaza is isolated because Israel wants them to be. Israel has some good reasons for wanting that but the result is world leading unemployment.
Does Hamas govern poorly besides that? Probably, I dont know much of those details. I do know they spend a lot of time squabbling with Fatah which seems to be encouraged by Israel.
Steve
“That’s enough money to affect people. Hamas has none of those. They have cheap rockets and small arms.”
A good place to start opining on Hamas is it is employing the “Hezbollah” model. The model does mean it has an extensive social services wing, but that’s to build popular support for its military wing, which it spends considerable resources and is the actual mission of the organization. Notably, neither Hamas or Hezbollah want to govern, with the responsibilities that want to come with it, rather their goal is to be a state within a state.
And the resources they spend on arms far exceeds what one thinks Hamas could extract from the Gaza strip, because Hamas gets funds from sympathizers to the Palestinian cause all over the Islamic world, including Iran.
By my readings it looks as though Hamas does devote money to social services. However, that doesnt provide much in the way of jobs. Hezbollah and the areas where it is operating is not under blockade so people are able to work. (Hezbollah is also smart enough, it appears, to not engage in mass slaughter of civilians.)
Here’s a question. Israel imposed a blockade leading to the harshest employment conditions in the world. They play off Fatah and Hamas against each other to keep both weak and poorly functioning. They do this they claim to keep Israel safe. Is it working for Israel?
Fatah has chosen not to go the terrorist, militant route that Hamas has chosen. Is that working considering the massive expansion of settlements underway?
Hamas has chosen to fight, but in the worst way possible. Is that working?
Steve
steve,
The simple fact is that Hamas is the government of Gaza. They are responsible for the conditions there. The reason there is a blockade (which doesn’t include, BTW, the stuff to improve the lives of civilians) is because Hamas keeps attacking Israel and spending the vast majority of its effort toward that cause. And there are a lot of groups and countries around the world who support that – like Iran – that send them lots of weapons. Iran and all these other countries could send them the things to build a productive society instead, but they don’t.
And yet you and so many others place all the blame for the conditions of the people in Gaza with Israel.
My god, steve. My god.
Not what i have said. I have said that both Hamas and Israel are responsible.
“(which doesn’t include, BTW, the stuff to improve the lives of civilians)”
They cant import steel, concrete, most electronics and sometimes even tin cans. They limit the amount of diesel and gasoline so that they wont use it to run factories to make weapons, so you see Gaza people using donkeys. The end result? Hamas still gets weapons and no one has jobs. What Israel does isn’t working.
If you just judge based upon results, Israel has a very harsh blockade that doesnt stop weapons and does make people poor and miserable. Israel needs to do something different. Either kill off enough people in Gaza that they can effectively fight or lighten up the blockade. They get attacked anyway but maybe if people actually have jobs they wont spend so much time building tunnels and planning attacks.
Steve
Posts at multiple places but here is my quote at OTB.
“So some of the world class poor conditions goes to Hamas, Israel doesnt escape blame too. ”
Steve