James Joyner has a good round-up of reaction to President Biden’s apparent Kinsleyite gaffe at Outside the Beltway. It is being interpreted by many, particularly the president’s supporters, as a call for regime change in Russia.
Will the statement make it harder or easier to arrive at a negotiated settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian War? Or is it irrelevant?
It reminds me of what is called “Robert Conquest’s Third Law of Politics”.
I think it is more or less irrelevant. The rhetoric has gotten so extreme in both politics and international relations that what once were fighting words are now mere noise.
However, swapping out Putin for some other Russian is not a good idea. Putin has generally been cautious and reactive, but willing to seize opportunities when they arise. I think Ukraine is a good example of that caution and opportunism. The current war was provoked by the stupidity and arrogance of the US and European Elites, and was entirely avoidable.
Putin’s replacement is likely to be another nationalist, perhaps an actual revanchist. Even Medvedev, once thought an Atlanticist, has recently moved into the nationalist camp. So living with Russia could get much harder without Putin.
It is also likely that the removal of Putin would lead to an escalation of hostilities. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania stick out like sore thumbs, and NATO troops there are only a few hundred miles from St. Petersburg. About the distance of Columbus to Chicago. (Also incidentally the length of the Western Front in WW I.)
And, of course, our ever brilliant Polish allies have a general calling for the invasion of Kaliningrad.
Things could get very much worse very quickly. Ironically, it seems that the “senile pedophile” is the one keeping us out of war with Russia. State, Congress, the print, broadcast and cable MSM are pushing a military intervention in Ukraine as hard as they can. And they are winning. The percent of Americans supporting intervention has risen from the 20%’s to a little over 40%.
What baffles me is why so many American politicians and bureaucrats seem to believe that whoever would replace Putin would be better than Putin. I think the preponderance of the evidence suggests that Putin believes and does things that are supported by a lot of Russians, suggesting that the leader who succeeds him is likely to be similar to him and, as you point out, could actually be worse.
My speculation is that they are clinging bitterly to the idea that everyone in the world shares our values.
A point of view:
https://mises.org/wire/manufactured-world-crisis
“Ironically, it seems that the “senile pedophile†is the one keeping us out of war with Russia.”
This just in. The way to avoid war with Russia is to call for the ouster of its head of state………..and then have your Administration immediately walk it back. In other news, President Biden pissed on Putin’s shoes today, and his supporters remarked, “I didn’t know it was supposed to rain.”
From WaPo –
WARSAW — During his presidential campaign, President Biden often reminded his audience about the heavy weight that the words of a president can carry.
“The words of a president matter,†he said more than once. “They can move markets. They can send our brave men and women to war. They can bring peace.â€
They can also, as Biden discovered on Saturday, spark a global uproar in the middle of a war.
With nine ad-libbed words at the end of a 27-minute speech, Biden created an unwanted distraction to his otherwise forceful remarks by calling for Russian President Vladimir Putin to be pushed out of office.
“For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power,†Biden said.
It was a remarkable statement that would reverse stated U.S. policy, directly countering claims from senior administration officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who have insisted regime change is not on the table. It went further than even U.S. presidents during the Cold War, and immediately reverberated around the world as world leaders, diplomats, and foreign policy experts sought to determine what Biden said, what it meant — and, if he didn’t mean it, why he said it.
Shortly after the speech, a White House official sought to clarify the comments.
……………
Next thing you know he’s going to be saying we will respond in kind if Putin uses chemical weapons. Oh, wait………
Not a good thing for Biden to have said. But a fair consideration would include all of the statements made by Putin that leave the impression that Russia’s expansionist goals aren’t limited, that the collapse of the Soviet Union as the greatest catastrophe of the 20th century, and that his role models are Russian imperialists.
The reason that so few predicted a full scale invasion of Ukraine is that this was Putin’s personal risk/reward calculation. Another leader facing the same issues would have made other decisions. It also seems possible that the Putin of ten years ago would not have taken the same risks/reward calculation faced with the same circumstances.
Biden’s ad-lib validated Niall Ferguson’s article that was a subject of a post last week.
It is relevant and irrelevant; the negotiations will be determined by results in the battlefield; that doesn’t change from the quote. Where it will matter is how much it hardens the resolve of the Russian government to secure their objectives; how much it pushes the Chinese to step away from neutrality and covertly aid the Russians (regime change is close to a red line for them); and whether it makes it harder to convince anyone else (India, Middle East) to put pressure on Russia to end the war.
Seriously? Biden saying something mean will set Putin’s resolve? Be serious. China and India will be more interested in oil. They really wont care who runs Russia. In their dream world the US and everyone else starts pumping lots of oil. Russia isn’t going to stop because it is a major part of the economy. Oil prices plummet and China and India get rock bottom prices from Russia.
Steve
Lew Rockwell? 3 Drew posts in a row without mentioning Biden’s laptop? I think we have identity theft going on here.
Steve