Today I have read articles claiming that Ukraine is on the verge of triumph in the war against Russian aggression and that it’s on the brink of defeat. I don’t see how both can be true simultaneously. Just too simple-minded, I guess.
I have also read claims that Putin is wily genius and that he’s a blundering fool. Again, I have no idea how these opposite views are maintained simultaneously.
For my part I have no idea what is going on in Ukraine and I do not understand the thinking of the Kremlin’s inner circle.
Dave Schuler: Today I have read articles claiming that Ukraine is on the verge of triumph in the war against Russian aggression and that it’s on the brink of defeat. I don’t see how both can be true simultaneously.
Those are not necessarily inconsistent views, if the situation is balanced on a knife’s edge, wherein it could go either way. In the case of the Russo-Ukrainian War, it’s probably more a matter of ignorance than of closely balanced options.
Dave Schuler: I have also read claims that Putin is wily genius and that he’s a blundering fool. Again, I have no idea how these opposite views are maintained simultaneously.
Putin could be a wily genius at gaining and holding power within the Russian political system, but a blundering fool when it comes to military matters. Hitler is an example of this phenomenon.
Dave,
There are a lot of uncertainties. And people who are biased toward certain views or outcomes will fill those uncertainties in. This is how we get people reaching entirely different conclusions while having largely the same information – and the same lack of information.
I find that the loudest and most confident voices tend to be the best (worst) in this behavior, resulting in very low analytical reliability. This includes everyone saying that either Russia or Ukraine is on brink of victory. The reality is that no one – not even the Russians and Ukrainians, can confidently make that claim because of those uncertainties.
Here are some names of people and analysts that I think are doing good and accurate analysis of the war and have a good historical track record:
– Michael Koffman
– Dara Lind
– Rob Lee
– Shashank Joshi
– Most anything published by RUSI (https://www.rusi.org/)
I’d also highly recommend this podcast episode, which looks at the bigger picture and the future. Part 2 and 3 are behind a paywall, but this first one has some excellent discussion.
https://warontherocks.com/2023/08/how-ukraine-can-win-the-peace-a-conversation-with-stephen-kotkin/