Here’s George Friedman’s observation about recent events in Ukraine:
The visit by two senior cabinet officials, and the very open listing of at least part of the arms shipments, is clearly intended to signal to Moscow that not only will it not defeat the Ukrainians but Ukraine might force Russia from the battlefield altogether. Obviously, a Russian preemptive attack is now a possibility, but an obvious strategy for Ukraine is to hold, retreat and rearm. Perhaps the Americans are also hoping that this will force the Russians to the negotiating table. That would be the lesser risk. Certainly, the Russians, whose intelligence likely knew this was coming, will have to recalibrate a war that was never really calibrated.
which I find interesting but not completely convincing. For one thing it assumes a degree of calculation on our part which I doubt is actually the case.
It’s not the only possible interpretation. For example, the war in Ukraine may be unfolding much as the Russians planned except that it’s taking longer and costing more both in “blood and treasure” as John Adams put it than they had anticipated.
There have been some explosions in Transnistria, apparently targeting Russian assets. So, now the war is in three countries, counting the bombings in Russia, too.
There are rumors that Romania has troops in disguise in Moldova proper. Romania wants to annex Moldova, which might be willing, but Russian-occupied and ethnic Russian Transnistria would be an issue.
War in three countries and counting. This will not end well.