As I read this post by Michaeleen Doucleff at NPR on the “family tree” of SARS-CoV-2 variants:
In many ways, viruses are like families — giant, complicated, extended families with cousins, aunts, uncles, grannies and grandpas galore.
Just as with human families, scientists can generate family trees for viruses, showing how each member (or variant) is related to the others. Children are connected to parents by branches, and cousins are connected through their grandparents.
For viruses, these family trees give biologists insights into how a virus has evolved over time and what changes to expect in the future.
During the pandemic, the family tree of SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes the disease COVID-19, has produced more surprises than anyone expected.
A number of random thoughts occurred to me. The first was how much we still have to learn.
The second was that there is a major distinction between science and scientists. Scientists, being human, have a bad habit of getting out in front of the actual science. We need to be careful to distinguish between “following the science” which is only prudent and “following the scientists” which may well not be.
The third was to wonder how many other things (other than the virus’s rate of mutation) will we learn we have been wrong about in time?
I would amend that to say that it is usually the media speaking for the scientists, most often in the press release, that gets ahead or over promises. (Every few years I read a statistics book just to review. One of new hires has a father who is a fairly well know bio-statistician. He is moving here to be close to the grandkids. I thought he would recommend one of his books but actually recommended someone else’s. In it he claims they studied this and if you you look directly at science publications it is much different than the press releases by the universities or research centers.
Of course the bad part of this article is we will now have people claiming that since Omicron is so different it must have been manufactured somewhere, probably China.
Steve
It’s completely speculative, of course, but the most likely explanation I’ve read (and assuming omicron originated in South Africa) is that it evolved within a chronically ill HIV/AIDS sufferer. To the best of my knowledge South Africa has the highest prevalence of HIV in the world with an astonishing 37% of men 15-49 having the disease.
Here’s something else to ponder. How amazing is it that the science has changed at lightning speed………. based on the politicians all joining Team 180 the last few days.
I predicted this would happen. It was never about the science.
I think Omicron made a big change. After Omicron which was so infectious if you were ever going to change made sense to do so now.
Steve
The ambiguity of this virus has been a ploy established, by the likes of Tony Fauci and Francis Collins, from the very beginning. Hiding their gain of function funding operations, the obfuscation of this virus’s origins – derived from nature vs created in a lab – the many personal conflicts of interests, the immediate discrediting of antivirals that were on hand for early treatment, as well as denouncing and smearing other infectious disease doctors/scientists who debated or disagreed with medical premises and protocols established by the NIH, NIAID, CDC, FDA, were all big time obstructions to finding a timely way out of COVID. To this day there are many medical experts who suspect not only the accuracy of data collected and supplied by these government agencies, but also the legitimacy of their intentions – whether it was for the good of the people or the financial gain, status and power of those who made up all these terrible, elongated policies that were supposed to mitigate this virus.
A quote has been sitting on my desk for almost 2 years now:
“ Truth doesn’t mind being questioned,
while lies don’t like being challenged.â€
Reading this for months on end, I always came up with the same sickening question – if we were being told the truth why were there so many attempts to censor and silence opposing ideas and science?
Drew: How amazing is it that the science has changed at lightning speed………. based on the politicians all joining Team 180 the last few days.
Pandemic, Mandates, “End the mandates!”
Pandemic, Mandates, “End the mandates!”
Pandemic, Mandates, “End the mandates!”
Pandemic, Mandates, “End the mandates!”
Pandemic, Mandates, “End the mandates!”
Pandemic winds down, Mandates wind down, “Told you so!”
Might want to check with the White House on that. As of this AM, Biden’s guidance hasn’t changed.
walt moffett: Might want to check with the White House on that. As of this AM, Biden’s guidance hasn’t changed.
Winding down means winding down. The CDC is being conservative and acting as a brake. If the current drop in cases continues, then you can expect the CDC to change its recommendations in the next few weeks. CDC notes that conditions vary across the country. Mandates may no longer be necessary in many places, even if still recommended.
Not quite facts that are wrong; but facts that are underexplored for their implications.
1. SARS-COV2 can infect many species — its been documented in rats, hamsters, mice, deer, mink, tigers, otters, non-human primates. Which brings the question why surveillance before and after 2020 in Southeast Asia and China never found it before? This is not to about a zoonotic or lab leak, more why 2020 and not before, since there are plenty of rats/hamsters/mice/deer/mink/non-human primates in close proximity to humans throughout that region.
2. Genetics does make a difference. There’s growing evidence that genetics does play a role in risk of severe SARS-COV2, and those genes are not distributed randomly among different ethnicities. Positive side is they suggest future possible treatments.
3. A clear understanding why kids (and even infants) have such low risk of severe COVID. Infants are generally extremely vulnerable to viruses since their immune systems are not mature; so why SARS-COV2 has spared babies (which is a great blessing) makes it a different virus from most.
Not sure #1 is answerable. Probably a random mutation which let the virus suddenly become more infectious and/or harmful.
Steve
CuriousOnlooker: 1. SARS-COV2 can infect many species — its been documented in rats, hamsters, mice, deer, mink, tigers, otters, non-human primates. Which brings the question why surveillance before and after 2020 in Southeast Asia and China never found it before?
Predecessor viruses were detected, and were considered of concern, but it wasn’t until SARS-CoV-2 broke out into human populations that the specific strain was detected. Not sure why you find this confounding. Notably, scientists studying coronaviruses were often vilified when the pandemic began. Fauci is still considered an “enemy of the state” by many on the political right.
CuriousOnlooker: 2. Genetics does make a difference. There’s growing evidence that genetics does play a role in risk of severe SARS-COV2, and those genes are not distributed randomly among different ethnicities.
Previous exposure to related viruses is probably a more important factor. Also, some cultures were much more proactive in their response to the pandemic, such as ubiquitous mask-wearing which can reduce the viral load of those who are infected. There are a number of other factors that can explain differences among ethnic groups besides genetic differences.
I think of the pandemic as three (and counting) overlapping pandemics given the very different aspects of the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variants. Politically, bureaucratically and socially, we’ve been behind the curve the entire time.
Its actually 4 waves / pandemics.
“Wildtype” — Jan 2020 – Nov 2020
“Alpha” — Dec 2020 – June 2021
“Delta” — July 2021 – Nov 2021
“Omicron” — Dec 2021 – ???
I’m curious why they labeled BA2 as a sub-variant of Omicron instead its own variant. Since BA2 has the same magnitude of changes in its genome (20) from BA1 as that which distinguished alpha from wildtype — and similar changes to transmissibility (up to 50%).
CuriousOnlooker: I’m curious why they labeled BA2 as a sub-variant of Omicron instead its own variant.
The Greek letter designations are not scientific descriptors, but labels to make discussion easier and more practical for non-scientific audiences. Variants are assigned a Greek letter when they become a variant of concern, that is, a variant with a “global public health significance.” Some scientists are pressing that BA2 should be considered a variant of concern, but vaccines still appear to work, and virulence is about the same.
https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/