I have a number of questions:
- Will the winner of the general election win with a majority of the popular vote?
- Will there be a higher voter turnout than there was in 2012, particularly among blacks?
- If Hillary Clinton wins will she get more, the same, or fewer electoral votes than Barack Obama did in 2012?
My answers: No, No, fewer.
1. Possibly
2. Yes to a higher turn-out vote. The black demographic is No
3. Fewer
No, dunno, fewer.
Voter turnout increases almost every year with population, but percentage turnout was actually a little higher in 1992 than 2012, when Ross Perot got 20 million votes with the simple message, (It’ Simple!), and tipped the presidency to Bill Clinton who couldn’t have won without him.
What I wonder is why Hillary Clinton continues to woo the votes of constituencies she already has in the bag. Gay, Muslim, Pro-choice, Immigrants, transgenders, Blacks.
I do not wonder why Trump picked Pence as a running mate. He has as strong a pro-life stance as you can find and may attract the votes of a large group who stayed home in 2012 rather than vote for a Mormon. Evangelicals. Don’t laugh, they are numerous, organized and will vote as a block. Remember when they organized group bus trips to see Passion of the Christ? They’ll do the same to vote for the right candidate.
Turnout.