His stated goal of bringing good manufacturing jobs to the United States would seem to be incongruous with his statement that American wages should fall. So we’d first need to figure out what Trump is actually negotiating for. I suspect it isn’t better employment.
To be fair, we won’t really know for several years. There will be a short term effect, medium term and long term. I trust you read Cowen the other day who pointed out that we might have some short term gains but those could be offset and we make out worse in the long term if a country like Canada no longer sees us as a trustworthy, honorable partner.
I was moved to ask this question by the claims of both sides, one side saying he’s the worst negotiator ever, the other the best. I was wondering what metric other than the letter behind the name was being used to make the determination.
Elections could be used as a measure got the midterms and inevitable re-election coming up. However that requires patience and ability to taste grapes.
Quote below is from Angry Bear. It illustrates part of the problem with rating Trump. He takes credit for stuff other people did or that was already in place. Mexico had already agreed to the environmental rules and labor changes that Trump will claim credit for initiating.
“However, here is the great irony. Both Mexico and Canada have already agreed to these environmental, labor, and intellectual property rights rules. They did so when they signed on to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, which in fact both of them are still parties to. Trump removed the US from this almost immediately after becoming president, also denouncing the TPP as something just awful, even though the US led the negotiations for it to come about. So the US is out of it, but all the other 10 nations, including both Mexico and Canada, have followed Japan’s leadershp to continue with the agreement and make it happen. So accepting these conditions on the part of Mexico was not a big deal at all. They have already done so, just not with the US.”
His stated goal of bringing good manufacturing jobs to the United States would seem to be incongruous with his statement that American wages should fall. So we’d first need to figure out what Trump is actually negotiating for. I suspect it isn’t better employment.
To be fair, we won’t really know for several years. There will be a short term effect, medium term and long term. I trust you read Cowen the other day who pointed out that we might have some short term gains but those could be offset and we make out worse in the long term if a country like Canada no longer sees us as a trustworthy, honorable partner.
Steve
Hard to say when Trump speaks in generalities and 90% of the specifics are probably BS.
I was moved to ask this question by the claims of both sides, one side saying he’s the worst negotiator ever, the other the best. I was wondering what metric other than the letter behind the name was being used to make the determination.
Elections could be used as a measure got the midterms and inevitable re-election coming up. However that requires patience and ability to taste grapes.
Quote below is from Angry Bear. It illustrates part of the problem with rating Trump. He takes credit for stuff other people did or that was already in place. Mexico had already agreed to the environmental rules and labor changes that Trump will claim credit for initiating.
“However, here is the great irony. Both Mexico and Canada have already agreed to these environmental, labor, and intellectual property rights rules. They did so when they signed on to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, which in fact both of them are still parties to. Trump removed the US from this almost immediately after becoming president, also denouncing the TPP as something just awful, even though the US led the negotiations for it to come about. So the US is out of it, but all the other 10 nations, including both Mexico and Canada, have followed Japan’s leadershp to continue with the agreement and make it happen. So accepting these conditions on the part of Mexico was not a big deal at all. They have already done so, just not with the US.”
Steve