Illinois Gov. J. B. Pritzker has announced his plan for reopening Illinois, reported at TriState.com. Dividing Illinois into eleven health regions:
The five phases of reopening for each health region are as follows:
Phase 1 – Rapid Spread: The rate of infection among those tested and the number of patients admitted to the hospital is high or rapidly increasing. Strict stay at home and social distancing guidelines are put in place and only essential businesses remain open. Every region has experienced this phase once already and could return to it if mitigation efforts are unsuccessful.
Phase 2 – Flattening: The rate of infection among those tested and the number of patients admitted to the hospital beds and ICU beds increases at an ever slower rate, moving toward a flat and even a downward trajectory. Non-essential retail stores reopen for curb-side pickup and delivery. Illinoisans are directed to wear a face covering when outside the home, and can begin enjoying additional outdoor activities like golf, boating and fishing while practicing social distancing. To varying degrees, every region is experiencing flattening as of early May.
Phase 3 – Recovery: The rate of infection among those tested, the number of patients admitted to the hospital, and the number of patients needing ICU beds is stable or declining. Manufacturing, offices, retail, barbershops and salons can reopen to the public with capacity and other limits and safety precautions. All gatherings limited to 10 or fewer people are allowed. Face coverings and social distancing are the norm.
Phase 4 – Revitalization: The rate of infection among those tested and the number of patients admitted to the hospital continues to decline. All gatherings of up to 50 people are allowed, restaurants and bars reopen, travel resumes, child care and schools reopen under guidance from the IDPH. Face coverings and social distancing are the norm.
Phase 5 – Illinois Restored: With a vaccine or highly effective treatment widely available or the elimination of any new cases over a sustained period, the economy fully reopens with safety precautions continuing. Conventions, festivals and large events are permitted, and all businesses, schools, and places of recreation can open with new safety guidance and procedures in place reflecting the lessons learned during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Chicago metropolitan area includes five of those regions.
I suppose that Gov. Pritzker is to be commended for announcing such a plan but I found it disappointing, a plan that could well have been announced on the day that he issued his “stay at home” directive back in March. It is appallingly lacking in target metrics. Fully reopening Illinois in Phase 6 requires “a vaccine or highly effective treatment widely available”, things that may never materialize.
Illinois met the criteria for Phase 3 more than a week ago. We remain in a Phase 1 shutdown.
To my eye the plan appears to be one for not reopening Illinois.
It may come as a surprise to those under the age of 60 but for most of the state’s history Illinoisans lived perfectly ordinary, healthy lives without vaccines or treatments for common illnesses, some of which could, indeed, kill you. Risks were considered a normal part of life.
The way you deal with risks is to identify the highest risks and implement measures for mitigating them, implementing less strenuous measures for lower level risks. Waiting until there are no risks is not a plan.
1957 Asian Flu: 116,000 US deaths out of 172 million people
1968 Hong Kong Flu: 100,000 US deaths out of 201 million people
2019 H3N2: 80,000 US deaths out of 330 million people
No shutdowns. No panic.
2020: World-wide panic, massive shutdowns, Great Depression II.
An interesting bio of Neil Ferguson, who is largely responsible for the panic. He is a real creep, and he has done this before.
Oos, forgot the link:
https://www.fort-russ.com/2020/05/forced-to-resign-corrupt-covid-19-histrionic-uk-health-advisor-neil-ferguson-quits-in-shame-questions-linger/
The conspiracy is not Mr Ferguson pushing the panic — that came from TV of Italian hospitals.
What is the conspiracy is how Mr Ferguson stopped advising the government. His indiscretion occurred 1 month ago (April 8). And it stayed off the press; even as he likely was getting “unofficial†protection from being on a key government committee, i.e. the key power brokers likely knew. All too convenient it gets revealed in the “Tory-graph†just as the UK government is planning to reopen which the Imperial model predicts will lead to catastrophe….
The lack of metrics is purposeful; we know that. It goes both ways — if the requirement to start stage 4 was < 500 positives / day; it may never be reached and popular pressure is such he is forced open anyway. Or people are so worried that they demand things stay shut even if the target was reached.
Most States guidelines are vague for that reason; it is not a special feature of Illinois.
If I understand this correctly, Chicago and the surrounding collar counties constitute one health region for purposes of reopening (the five IDPH emergency medical service regions are combined to make one health region).
Granted this would ultimately involve issues of line-drawing, but these regions seem to have no particular relevance. Hospital Service Areas and Hospital Referral Regions are used to research based upon the area within which hospital services are generally obtained. Dave previously linked to a Pro Publica study of which hospital referral regions would become overrun under different assumptions. The problem with these though is that for a lot of downstate areas, the hospital services are likely to come from a neighboring state.
The emergency medical services regions appear to be just an arbitrary division of the state somewhat proportionately for bureaucratic reasons, and could be used for parks and recreation planning just as easily.
Initially the shelter in place guidelines were put into place until the curve was flattened, so health services wouldn’t be too overwhelmed by a CV patient load. Now, the end game, relieving us of these oppressive mandates, is hyper focused on having a vaccine readily available. IOW, the goal posts have changed, making it difficult to recharge our economy any time soon.
In the meantime, the climate of fear continues it grip on the populace at large, fueled by shaming and retribution to those who stray from the arbitrary rules set by governors of each state. In many ways we are becoming too similar to the definition of a police state, complete with lauding snitching on neighbors, coupled with a seemingly stoic indifference to the massive suffering of those losing livelihoods.
And then there is a complete dismissal of long term repercussions brewing, from throwing everything behind demands calling for no-losses-are-acceptable in resolving this pandemic crisis. However, why is it ok to ignore non-COVID health concerns, the disruption of every corner of our economy, bankruptcies, the ever increasing mental/emotional stress resulting in growing cases of domestic violence, suicide, substance abuse relapse, and looming food chain problems that will eventually impact 3rd world countries, leading to food shortages, hunger, and more deaths?
Is our over-wrought reaction to COVID worth the price being paid now and in the future?
The goalposts have not changed. It is better to say the goals were never agreed.
There was close to unanimous agreement to lockdown — but for different reasons.
For some, it was to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed — “flatten the curve”. Some wanted to “crush the curve”, i.e. get the cases close to 0. Some wanted to buy time to come up with a targeted plan. Some wanted to protect against tail risk.
7 weeks on, those differences are exploding.
Why blame the lockdown for killing the economy? The economy is comatose because an infectious disease is out of control, so people are cautious. People were sheltering and social distancing long before official lockdowns.
Until the cause is addressed, ie the disease is brought under control, no one will be visiting restaurants, or going on cruise ships, or visiting barbershops, even if they are open.
On that front, after what seems forever, NY is finally taking additional effective measures
a) sanitizing mass transit
b) scaling voluntary out-of-home quarantine.
c) finding most infections are occurring to seniors at “home”
Other States take note.
“behind demands calling for no-losses-are-acceptable in resolving this pandemic crisis.”
Strawman.
“Why blame the lockdown for killing the economy? The economy is comatose because an infectious disease is out of control, so people are cautious. People were sheltering and social distancing long before official lockdowns.”
This. I remember one of the southern states that instituted lockdowns on the later side. Someone from the state (Texas?) said “we’re not stupid, we didn’t need to wait too the govt to tell us what to do”. Look at Sweden. They dont have mandatory lockdown, but on a voluntary basis they have pretty much the same thing, with the same expected economic results.
Steve
I’ve made the same point elsewhere. It’s very liberating not to be compelled to state your objectives or how you’ll know you’ve achieved them.
CuriousOnlooker, what do you mean by seniors at “home”?
I was just looking at the document linked below and it indicates that in New York 20% of deaths from the virus have been linked to a skilled nursing care facility, while that percentage is 67% in Pennsylvania. New York may be different than other states.
I recognize you said infections, not deaths, but these seem to be correlated. My county has experienced an outbreak at a nursing home the last couple of weeks and that facility now accounts for 50% of the infections and 67% of deaths. That appears to undercount infections originating from the facility (family members of employees testing positive).
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1WxaZtEAI5KtXri_W-mq_d5JQChUmpMi-sVXBTYzxqFg/preview?pru=AAABcg75Rec*VDYZNWd3thMgMeVgAco65w
At “home”, where they reside, for some, that is a managed care facility.
My comment is based on a slide from Gov Cuomo’s presentation shared by Nate Silver this morning.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1258062867217223681
Managed care facilities can be thought of as one giant household.
The crux of the problem is an effective isolation policy is required to limit the spread within a household.
With the current evidence, limiting household transmission is where the East Asian countries have differed from Europe / US.
If that is what is meant, it would not appear to be particularly useful. It should be extremely easy to distinguish between institutions (nursing homes, skilled nursing facilities, hospitals, etc.) and family homes.
Ok, but some of the differences with East Asia have to do with different types of household living arrangements. What I suspect is mainly happening is that once someone in a “home” gets infected, its spreads extensively before a positive test. By that point, whether or not they are quarantined, may not matter.
Other states have taken note long before NY, in putting more appropriate safeguards in place for senior communities – such as FL. In fact, the enormous numbers of deaths in a Washington State convalescent home should have raised enough red flag deterrents, to put most of these facilities immediately on an endangered species list. However, inexplicably in NY, Gov. Cuomo actually created a directive, in late March, instructing elderly patients, testing positive for the COVID virus, to be sent into these most vulnerable senior care environments! Here in CA our governor simply concentrated on an all-encompassing shut down policy, no matter what the changing data showed about inherent population weaknesses, or high differentials exhibited in county by county infection rates or deaths – quite a few having zero deaths. Also, like NY, the lion’s share of deaths in CA have arisen from senior care facilities, as well as in primarily the large county of Los Angeles
The same goes with the late realization that massive transit systems, like those in NYC, compromised by a high ridership and an unfettered flow of homeless, might create a perfect Petri dish in spreading infectious viruses faster. However, enacting a sterilization process only occurred to the governor after the high point of infection had passed, in late April.. Too little, too late describes most of the actions taken by the leadership in NY. Ironically, though, said policy failures has received little MSM notice or criticism.
Furthermore, the unanimous agreement for lock downs was heavily influenced by the dire predictions rendered by early COVID modeling, peddled by “experts.†But, even before these mandated lockdowns, people were moderately implementing cautious behavior, just not in the extremes practiced today. Unnerving people further, on the road to the wide acceptance of lockdowns, was the unprecedented daily updates, hammering home the incremental numbers of infection and deaths. Then there were the loud drumbeats of criticism showering concerns aimed at administrative incompetence, in lieu of the absence of immediate testing, antiviral remedies, PPE and ventilator inadequacies or delays. Now the magic bullet is to have a vaccine ready to go, justifying releasing everyone from the drastic shelter in place measures.
Never in my lifetime has such a magnifying glass been placed on any crisis, with so many criteria attached in order to alleviate massive fears of virus contamination and death. For me, the over reaction to this COVID virus continues to not make sense……
Read Jan’s comment three times. Digest it. Dave correctly observes the no final goal post issue was by design, eviscerating other comments in the thread. Perpetual fear mongering and control is the goal.
Steve clings to the notion of an out of control virus as an existential threat to humanity, even as all predictions of hell fire fail to materialize. And, as always, total indifference to the costs of the strategy.
Separately, this notion that we couldn’t isolate certain elderly oriented institutions is completely absurd on its face. Of course we could, at less dollar cost and misery, less intrusion into civil liberties, and much more efficacy to the stated goal of saving lives – at least temporarily – than the adopted strategy foisted upon the entire population.
This has been pure folly, if not evil intent.
Hanlon’s Razor. Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
Every state ‘plan’ is yet another example of government putting itself in the role of big brother (or sister, depending on the gender of your governor). The question is on what level and on what terms should a risk-benefit analysis of the virus occur. Each plan compares phased measures to prevent the spread the virus with its impact on the life and wellbeing of the population. Fundamentally, such a risk–benefit analysis addresses the question of whether a given risk is “acceptable.†The problem is that the perceived risk is different for many of us and therefore what each of us concludes are acceptable restrictions in response may greatly vary. Recent protests underscore this problem and the shortcoming of a ‘one size fits all’ plan to reopen. I believe our leaders have failed to adequately educate us on and quantify the likely risks of mass virus outbreak. As a result, they will encounter resistance to their plans.
Oh this is a surprise.
When Gov Cuomo said “home” is main source of transmission. He meant home as in private residences. Not managed care facilities.
66% are at home. 18% nursing homes, 4 assisted living facility.
Also, relatively few cases are using public transportation or are essential workers.
From Gov Cuomo’s briefing today (5/6).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VZ_c-rbTHA. Talks about the chat at 10:30.
That tells us that the strategy (“stay at home”, social distancing, etc.) has failed. The virus isn’t coming into the “homes” by Immaculate Conception. People are bringing it into the homes. Either the elders themselves, caretakers, workmen, relatives, etc.
As a people we are not notably trusting or compliant. We never have been. You can go back to the earliest days of the Republic and you will find the same thing.
The situation is exacerbated by the fact that we aren’t even a “we” any more. How could we be with 15-20% of the population immigrants? Today’s immigrants don’t refer to their countries of origin as “the old country” any more but as “my country”, referring to somewhere other than the U. S.
“urthermore, the unanimous agreement for lock downs was heavily influenced by the dire predictions rendered by early COVID modeling, peddled by “experts.—
Nope. Still haven’t read it have you? In the tables of the report it also predicted only 6000 deaths. That doesnt motivate anyone. The thing that motivated people was Italy. Hospitals failing in first world country in a wealthy section of that country with quality health care.
“the absence of immediate testing, antiviral remedies, PPE and ventilator inadequacies or delays”
The absence of PPE clearly didnt concern you. It did bother some of us. Also, immediate testing? We had the genome in mid January. Trump said if people wanted a test they could get one on March 9th. We didnt see significant numbers of tests until April. 2 1/2 months and you say immediate?
“Read Jan’s comment three times. ”
Sure, if you want a summation of lies and misleading statements.
Oh heck, we hysterical lefties have even managed to get Putin to buy into the conspiracy.
https://tass.com/society/1153497
Steve
‘Nope. Still haven’t read it have you? In the tables of the report it also predicted only 6000 deaths.’
This is the first I’ve heard of any report predicting there would be only 6K deaths from Kung Flu. What got the lockdown ball rolling was Neil Ferguson of the Imperial College’s worst-case prediction of 2.2 million deaths from COVID-19 for the US and over half a million for the UK. That prediction was based on what turned out to be a very inaccurate rate of reproduction and that absolutely nothing would be done to mitigate the outbreak, but the news agencies, using the ‘leads if it bleeds’ criteria, turned it into the 2020 Black Death because they thought it would be the key to finally bringing down Orange Man Bad.
https://reason.com/2020/03/27/no-british-epidemiologist-neil-ferguson-has-not-drastically-downgraded-his-worst-case-projection-of-covid-19-deaths/
BTW Ferguson, who recently had to resign from his position because he flouted his own rules regarding social distancing, is a known and repeat predictor of wildly inflated death tolls from disease. It’s literally been his MO for the better part of two decades. He’s so bad at prognostication he should be put on permanent lockdown from employment.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8294439/ROSS-CLARK-Neil-Fergusons-lockdown-predictions-dodgy.html
“What got the lockdown ball rolling was Neil Ferguson of the Imperial College’s worst-case prediction of 2.2 million deaths from COVID-19 for the US and over half a million for the UK.”
That is not what he predicted. You, like everyone else now, are only looking at what others are passing on, and odds are good that the Reason and daily mail person didnt read it either.
Steve