Take a look at William Galston’s preview of the 2012 SOTU in The New Repujblic. I really wonder if this it true:
President Obama cannot run away from his record; he must run on it. And he cannot make the 2012 election a contest between two futures—unless and until he provides a persuasive narrative of the economic situation he inherited and his response to it since he assumed office. That narrative provides the indispensible foundation for his forward-leaning proposals, and for the contrast he wants to draw with the Republicans. He cannot say, as Bill Clinton did in his 1996 State of the Union address, that “Our economy is the healthiest it has been in three decades.†Nor can he say what Ronald Reagan did in 1984, that “America is much improved.†What he can say is that the difficult, unpopular decisions he made at the beginning of his presidency—such as the successful rescue of GM and Chrysler—saved the country from a second Great Depression and began to lay the foundation for a solid recovery. We’re on the right track, he could continue, but we’re not moving down it fast enough. The imperative is not to change course, but rather to speed up, and that is the administration’s principal focus.
Making the point that it might have been worse would certainly point to the FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) campaign that I expect the president or, at least, his surrogates to campaign on. It has the unfortunate side effect of undermining whatever it was he stood for in 2008. Additionally, I can’t recall any president running for re-election successfully on such a platform. You might point to Truman but I think Truman was a special case. He was finishing up FDR’s fourth term and Democrats had come to believe that they White House theirs by right. He also had a kind of authenticity that no candidate today can match.
What I expect in the SOTU is another dreary boring Christmas tree wish list of things that the president has no intention of actually putting any weight behind. I may have to struggle to watch it.
Inquiring minds want to know, what achievements does Obama wish to pursue in a second term?
The impression being given by some of his people is that Obama has accomplished 90% of what he wanted, leaving me with the disappointing conclusion that a second term is (like his predecessor’s) primarily about defending the first.
Given the business I’m in, and having watched squirming, failed executives invoke “FUD” I’m not very sympathetic.
He ran for the job. He knew the landscape. He had a platform. He had both houses. 20 years ago I was stupid and/or naive enough to fall for the “I didn’t know how bad it was” jive. 50 deals and 50 management teams later I know first hand it’s pure crap. Just pure crap.
Performers perform. Pretenders make excuses.
Think that’s harsh? Wait until you’ve risked hundreds of thousands of dollars on pretenders and their stories………and watched your money go up in smoke. For some reason, politicians seem to get 1, 2, 5 chances. In business, the dealer collects your money and tells you to re-up or get the eff out of here.
It has the unfortunate side effect of undermining whatever it was he stood for in 2008.
What did he stand for in 2008? Vague feel-good sentiments and hand-waving don’t count for much.
OTOH it will beat the specific feel-bad sentiments and hand wringing we’ll get this year.
Obama’s campaign message is simple: “3 years ago we were screwed, now we’re less screwed, things are getting better.” He’ll be right.
Then the GOP will exaggerate, lie, and overreach — it’s what they do. It’s core character at this point. They’ll be seen as the ones going negative — especially if it’s Gingrich but even if it’s Romney. Their only plan will be, “Let’s make sure the rich get richer, fuck everyone else and boogada boogada boogada, fear Obama.”
And Obama will be re-elected. Because he’s likable, he can’t be successfully portrayed as a bogey man, the GOP is a relic, and their two potential candidates are a loathsome reptile and a man no one loves.
I don’t know, Michael. The president’s approval rating has more disapproving than approving and, in general, it’s been going the wrong way. Historically, presidents running for a second term have not been able to make their opponents the deciding issue.
If Gingrich is the Republican nominee, I will definitely vote for Obama. If it’s Romney, I honestly don’t know. Leaning Obama, I guess.
I don’t detest Republicans, generally, as much as you do, probably because I don’t see them as so monolithic as you do. I detest the Congressional leadership in both parties.
I would differentiate between Republicans — as in actual humans who for whatever bizarre reason still identify with that party — and the Republican Party. The former may merely be unenlightened or perhaps suffering from an overdeveloped sense of loyalty. I don’t despise them as individuals.
But a party that can’t get through a primary without something like, “Obama is a food stamp president?” That party I do despise.
I have a particular grudge that I have been effectively reduced to a single party. I like choices. And I think competition is generally a good thing. In the old days when the GOP included guys like the senior Romney or Dirksen or even Bob Dole I could at least flirt with them. Now the GOP is Rush Limbaugh and Rupert Murdoch. I’d like to see them come back to sanity. I’d like to see them focus on actually solving problems and governing, not on beating CNN in the ratings.
Here’s my preview: Zzzz….
(And yes, I’ll be watching. Because I have to for work, damn it).
Wake up, Maxwell, we’re going to get this country working again, we will not allow our interests abroad to be challenged, middle class blah blah blah middle class, those who play by the rules blah blah, because our brightest days are still ahead of us and God Bless the US of A.
Obama’s campaign message is simple: “3 years ago we were screwed, now we’re less screwed, things are getting better.†He’ll be right.M.i>
utterly dishonest tripe from some rich asshole pulling for his team and damn the consequences for anyone NOT on his team. The only reason the UE rate isn’t over 11% is because the Obama Adminsitration has decided to not count severel millions of unemployed people. Total fucking bullshit. I’m seeing more stores closing, the malls getting emptier, what used to be permanent jobs becoming temp jobs. I’m not seeing any improvement except for people who are connected, and I’m seeing an Administration that is actively killing jobs to help their contributors. (Check out Buffet getting a break by killing the proposed oil pipeline – I’m sure that’s just a coincidence. Like the people at Solyndra getting government money top fail.)
And Obama is about as likable as a turd in the punch bowl. He’s just another lying piece of shit looking to screw over the country for the benefit of him and his teammates. Mission accomplished.
And Dave, spare us the drama. You are going to vote Democratic again, as you decry big useless government programs that are guaranteed to fail but you always vote for more of them.
Ice:
You can comfort yourself with the fact that as a Florida resident at least someone will care how you vote. Dave’s in Illinois, I’m in California, if either is in serious jeopardy for the Dems the race is long-since lost.
Michael,
Funny you should mention that – I”m a Florida resident too and got my first robo-call (for the GoP) as I was reading your comment. How the bastards got my cell phone number I’ll never know.
Speaking of bastards there is also the Democratic party. While I agree that the GoP is worse, you shouldn’t kid yourself there. “Obama is a food stamp president?” That’s bad, but you should look up some of the stuff said about Bush in 2008 and especially about Hillary during the primaries. There were plenty of crazies who thought Bush would stage a coup in 2008 for example.
PS: I’ll put my valuable Florida vote up to whoever wins a cage-match between you and Dave.
Me and Dave? He’d kick my ass. He does all kinds of martial arts stuff. Unless I can bring a gun I’d bet on him.
Okay, I’m prepared to concede that Maxwell had it right.
Michael, for the record my full review is: BARF…Zzzz…click.
Maybe preceded by a few Z’s waiting for the thing to start.
That’s bad, but you should look up some of the stuff said about Bush in 2008 and especially about Hillary during the primaries.
Reynolds won’t have to look it up, because he said all of it.
As for calling Obama the food stamp President, that’s just a fact. Food stamp usage has risen steadily DURING THE OBAMA RECOVERY. The median wage in this country has declind DURING THE OBAMA RECOVERY. I’d have to check but I’m pretty sure we have fewer jobs now than when the Obama recovery started. (I know that was true for quite some time into the recovery.) A huge chunk of the jobs added during the recovery have been temp and contract positions – no benefits to speak of. The only reason the average length of unemployment hasn’t continued to soar is because we’re not counted as unemployed anymore.
Obama has tried to get us off foreign oil by making it harder to get at the oil we’ve got, and by not even allowing oil in Canada to be sent here. Of course, that was to pay ofgf his good buddy Warren the Maggot Buffet, who’s railroad will benefit from the increased rail traffic. We can’t drill new wells in the Gulf anymore, but Obama is going to let the Cubans and Chinese do it. Florida gets fucked anyway, and the US still won’t get any benefit. Meanwhile, the President is proud of Solyndra, and hopes to sponsor more of them. Everything for his contributors and nothing for the rest of us. Chicago governance in action.
On the plus side, Obama has killed bin Laden. He managed to do so in a way that a great many people don’t believe it, because he was in a hurry to make certain the bastard was buried secretly and repsectfully. (I’ll note that Obama made it a point to watch bin Laden get his brains spattered – he had to look tough.) His Administration hasn’t done such a good job handling our own dead, but what does that matter.
Of course, Obama has made it official policy to assasinate American citizens. He has also signed into law provisions that allow him, as Commander in Chief, to have the military “detain” American citizens without any Constitutional protections.
Yeah, a wonferful presidency, no doubt about it.
And my vote wouldn’t count for shit anyway, even if I were registered. (I haven’t registered to vote in my new precient and have no intention of doing so.) There’s no one worth voting for, and everyone should be voted against.