President Biden just won a major victory. Will it make any difference? NPR reports on the House’s passage, on a bipartisan basis, of the bipartisan “infrastructure bill”:
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON: On this vote, the yeas are 228 and the nays are 206. The motion is adopted.
SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
And that means a trillion dollars in spending on so-called hard infrastructure is headed to President Biden. The rest of his priorities, including early childhood education, clean energy, paid family leave, are in a larger package that continues to divide his own party.
NPR’s Deirdre Walsh covers Congress and joins us now. Thanks so much for being with us.
DEIRDRE WALSH, BYLINE: Good morning, Scott.
SIMON: One part, at least, of the president’s agenda has gotten through the House. What’s in the bill?
WALSH: This is really a major accomplishment. Previous presidents have tried and failed to pass smaller infrastructure bill. This one has money for roads, bridges, broadband projects, water systems, airport upgrades. The Senate passed it in August, but progressive Democrats wanted to move it in tandem with that broader social spending package. This was actually Pelosi’s third time she brought up the bill. This time, it turns out, third time was the charm. Thirteen Republicans backed it. Six Democrats voted no because they really wanted first to pass that broader spending bill on child care and health care.
I’ve been looking around in vain for commentary on the passage of the bill. My guess is that the floodgates will open tomorrow. The closest I’ve been able to find so far is Michelle Cottle’s New York Times column:
This is a major win for America.
The infrastructure bill will provide close to $600 billion in new federal spending over the next decade on a cornucopia of infrastructure delights: roads, rail, ports, water systems, bridges, dams, airports, broadband! It puts $47 billion toward helping communities deal with the impacts of climate change. Jobs will be created, “the vast majority†of which, Mr. Biden stressed, would not require a college degree. “This is a blue-collar blueprint to rebuild America,†he said.
It is also a much-needed win for Mr. Biden and congressional Democrats. For months, the public has suffered through the dispiriting sight of the party’s centrists and progressives slashing at each other over this bill and the Build Back Better plan to which it had been linked. Both bills have experienced multiple near-death experiences, and many, many Americans were beginning to doubt whether Democrats had what it takes to get anything done. Their basic competence was being called into question, and the rolling spectacle of — altogether now! — Democrats In Disarray likely contributed to the party’s poor showing in Tuesday’s elections.
At this point my take is that at this point it is too little too late to change the narrative on the Biden presidency. If it had passed in this form three months ago, it would have been seen as a tremendous victory. Now, after all of the hoopla about the much larger “Build Back Better” bill which the passage of the so-called “hard” infrastructure bill will inevitably jeopardize, it is anticlimactic. The phrase of the day is “sausage-making”.
Additionally, something rarely mentioned is that in all likelihood not a penny of the money appropriated under the infrastructure bill will be spent on anything but administrative costs by Election Day 2022 which is less than a year away now. Remember President Obama’s admission back in 2010: “there’s no such thing as shovel-ready projects”? And that doesn’t even consider the actual merits of the priorities of the infrastructure bill.
Employment numbers were also pretty good. In a few months few will really remember that it took so long to pass, especially if economic numbers stay good. I dont really expect BBB to pass unless they cut it back even more. While you like to dwell on worst case scenarios I have always contended that the extreme bills just wont pass.
Steve
Actual infrastructure spending is desirable, but these are long term projects. None of them are “shovel-ready.” Environmental studies themselves can take years, and every project requires detailed plans and specification before it goes to bid, which is another year or so. Think of them as five to ten year plans.
“….rarely mentioned is that in all likelihood not a penny of the money appropriated under the infrastructure bill will be spent on anything but administrative costs by Election Day 2022…”
That is correct. As you also observe, setting aside the merits, there will be nothing to show in the way of infrastructure. Its perhaps an unfair lens, but its reality.
Also not widely understood is the economic drag occurring due to supply chain disruptions. You can’t buy what’s on a ship. And many businesses are beginning to suffer cash flow problems. They generally react by cutting people or curtailing purchases. Its a tug of war between stimulus and lack of saleable product. Add to that worker no-shows or firings due to vaccine mandates and its not a recipe for a robust economy.
Where is the funding for this infrastructure bill coming from? Apparently monies are being shuffled around from unused or repurposed funding. Even with all this monetary shape-shifting, there will still be around a $550 billion funding hole which will have to be appropriated from somewhere. This usually is sourced by increasing taxes.
However, even though the jobs report came in better than expected, corporate earnings were good, and the stock market is roaring, the underlying economic foundation going forward worries many economists. Housing sales have slowed. Inflation is rising. There are problems in the durable goods sector. There are a plethora of vacate store fronts and commercial buildings (example: The â€iconic†Santa Monica Promenade is suffering from a 60% vacancy factor). Consumer sentiment is dragging. 71% of the people think the U.S. is going in the wrong direction. The vaccine craziness is causing many 1st responders to be vulnerable to losing their jobs, along with others, facing being fired or already fired, who are important in efficiently running this country’s commerce. Then there are the massive homeless and border problems, with government money being disbursed to illegal migrants over vets who camp on VA properties. My husband was at a VA 2 days ago and saw these encampments first hand.
And, now we stare at grinning House members. as they celebrate passing another trillion dollar plus bill, with another one on the way before Thanksgiving. Are these kinds of deficits, economic potholes, and mismanaged governance supposed to make us feel good about the future?
I’m working on a post on that very subject. I agree that’s it’s good news for President Biden.
The point I was trying to make was that in a few months few voters are likely to remember the infrastructure bill at all. It will create few if any jobs in that period and most of the jobs it has created in that period will be in Washington. Little if any infrastructure will have been built.
But what will happen through that period is that inflation will continue to eat away at people’s paychecks. Buy a loaf of bread or a gallon of milk will be a lot more expensive than it was.
It’s interesting that the media assigns different numbers for the spending, either $550B or $1T. The lower number was used by Biden and others to minimize the cost, there is only $550B of new spending, because there was already (at least I understand it) money tagged for roads and bridges through the motor vehicle tax or similar revenue raisers. The new spending is divided out over 5 years ($110B per year). I’m not sure about the remaining $450B.
It seems to me that the type of spending traditionally paid for as infrastructure will continue, perhaps with a bit more push, because the expectation already existed. To the extend the spending is of a new type or involves new partnerships w/ states and business, I would not surprised if there is unspent money that gets pushed back. That’s just from the impression of how the spending has been characterized.