There must be as many predictions of the outcome of the 2022 midterm elections as there are predictors. Some think the Democrats will retain control of both houses of Congress, some think that the Republicans will take control of both houses, some think the Democrats will hold the Senate but lose the House, and every other imaginable permutation. Although it’s just about four weeks until the election, I think it’s too early to tell and the reason it’s too early should make everyone feel uneasy.
I think the outcome is all but completely dependent on events, events over which no political party or candidate have much influence at this point. Inflation. Crime. The prices of oil. The war in Ukraine. The situation in the Middle East. The situation in the Far East. A litany of countries including all of those mentioned in my earlier post.
And those are just the known unknowns. There are also the unknown unknowns. All of these events are influential in any election but I think events will shape this one more than any other of my recollection.
The only thing I can say for sure is that I won’t vote for any Illinois legislator or official who supports the SAFE-T Act. With 100 of 102 county states attorneys opposed to it, it’s obvious that regardless of what you may think of cash bail, the law is seriously flawed. Onw the things that bugs me about it is that it’s so racist. It will almost certainly increase violent crime in black and Hispanic neighborhoods. Illinois pols should do the courageous thing and fix it before the election rather than waiting until they’re safely re-elected. My previous state representative voted against it; my present state senator voted for it which leads me to the conclusion that he’s an idiot. His campaign spots provide supporting evidence.
I don’t know either. Given the low reliability of polls in semi-close elections and the closeness of the contests, the weirdness of some of the races (Dr. Oz, Walker, Fetterman), I won’t hazard a guess.
As for what I’m hoping for, at this point, I don’t really care – whatever the result, it’s going to be a shit show. Herschel Walker and Dr. Oz, for instance, have no business being in the US Senate, but I admit that there is a certain appeal to watching such a train wreck unfold.
The main race I care about is for Colorado governor, and I expect Polis to be easily reelected.
“The only thing I can say for sure is that I won’t vote for any Illinois legislator or official who supports the SAFE-T Act.”
Dave. Seriously. I mean seriously. (and I know it will shock you to know that I routinely engage in hyperbole, extremism and so forth to make a point) What in the hell is going on in my (formerly) beloved state? Who are these people? What has happened to your party?
Its Illinois, man. Not California.
It’s not just Illinois, and it’s not just the Evil Party. In every Western country, the leaders of every political party have gone mad, aggressively adopting policies that are guaranteed to destroy the West’s economy and guaranteed to replace the native populations. The destruction of historical monuments and the suppression of historical art in public museums plus the destruction of our educational systems pre-K to post-doc continue apace.
We are living in the suicide of a whole civilization. The SAFE-T Act is a minor problem. How did a mutated frog get to be mayor of Chicago? Where is Richard J. Daley when you need him?
As for what I’m hoping for, at this point, I don’t really care – whatever the result, it’s going to be a shit show. Herschel Walker and Dr. Oz, for instance, have no business being in the US Senate
While I’m no fan of either Oz or Walker, their opponents, Fetterman and Warnock, are below the belt in being quality candidates with respectable policies in hand, should they win.
Also, the SAFE-T Act in Illinois is not surprising, as the Dems have been at the forefront of disappearing bail when it comes to those in jail. The only difference in Illinois’s version is that the call for personal or financial accountability, in dem precincts, is becoming less and less. In fact should Fetterman succeed in his election bid, he wants to reduce a sizable portion of the prison population, releasing them into the public domain. When this was done in CA, crime increased (imagine that)!
I don’t have a problem with the abolition of cash bail for non-violent offenses. I do have a problem with it for violent offenses, especially repeat violent offenses. The wording of the law basically makes it a “Get Out of Jail Free” card. It needs to be narrowed.
I agree with the observation; the variance in electoral outcomes this year is very unusually high. Where I somewhat disagree with polling and most analysis is I think the median outcome has moved away from Democrats compared to June.
Perhaps one of the reasons why the variance is so high is neither party is debating or wants to debate the big issues on the table.
(a) Russia – Ukraine war. No one wants to discuss a threatened US strike on Russia after a hypothetical Russian use of tactical nuclear weapons. Since Ukraine does not have a formal treaty of alliance, that requires a declaration of War — which is Congresses responsibility.
(b) The fiscal situation. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike has caused interest of the debt to be the largest line item in the Federal Budget. On top of that, the Federal Reserve policies means it can’t pay seigniorage (a loss of $100 billion / year to treasury), and it has the potential to have losses in the trillions due to QT (the bonds it brought will be sold at a loss) — where the taxpayer may have to make Federal Reserve whole or monetize that loss. Nobody in either party wants to talk that the upcoming Congress needs to make choices that make the Tea Party Congress be an example of civic harmony.
1) Pretty sure other countries also have nukes.
2) Expect arguments about raising the debt ceiling again. We dont even want to pay for money we have already spent.
I agree that both Oz and Fetterman are disappointing. Oz was a med school classmate, a year behind, and I have some knowledge of Fetterman probably beyond the norm due to some friends. Fetterma is odd and really overdoes the “folksy” thing with the hoodies. Otherwise a pretty conventional Democrat. Oz is a crook and has probably harmed many more lives than he has helped promoting his fake cures. What I remember of med school is that he was going to make sure he chose a career that made lots of money like CT surgery. From my connections at Columbia the money from grifting was a prime motivator but even more he loved being in the public spotlight.
Steve
(1) What does other countries having nukes do with anything? AFAIK, Congress is still responsible for authorizing use of force in any situation other to defend this country or a country that has a signed treaty obligating this country to do so.
(2) This time its not a constraint Congresses imposes upon itself. James Carville’s famed bond vigilantes have woken up from their 30 year slumber.
For those not following Illinois’ “landmark” bail reform, people charged with the following offenses cannot be jailed awaiting trial because they pose a threat to the community:
Aggravated Battery (including great bodily harm or permanent disfigurement);
Aggravated DUI (including cases involving a fatality);
Aggravated Fleeing and Eluding a Peace Officer;
Arson;
Burglary;
Drug-Induced Homicide;
Intimidation (including pre-trial communication with witnesses or potential jurors);
Kidnaping;
Robbery;
Second-Degree Murder;
Threatening a Public Official;
Possession of a Firearm by a Gang Member
Possession of a Stolen Firearm
Aggravated Assault (including use of a firearm); and
All offenses involving lethal drug distribution.
Previously if a person committed any of those offenses, the circumstances surrounding the alleged crime or the accused’s criminal history, might form the basis of being detained pending trial. Without going into more detail, I think the most likely explanation is that the law was either poorly drafted and it will be fixed as some have promised by January 1st, or it was spiked by an insider with pretty radical goals.
I think women might be most harmed by the reform. However, “domestic” offenses aren’t listed above, so it might only provide relief for violence against women in non-domestic settings.
Fetterman is odd and really overdoes the “folksy†thing with the hoodies. Otherwise a pretty conventional Democrat.
That’s what is so disturbing about Fetterman is that he represents today’s Democrat moral compass. He is crass, never had a job until he was 50, supports policies out of sync with middle class principles – whether it’s late term abortion or social justice injustices. Basically, the democrat party has morphed into a conveyor of anti-working man policies, tyranny, allegiance to the elite – an agenda far afield from what it used to espouse.
Fetterman is odd and really overdoes the “folksy†thing with the hoodies. Otherwise a pretty conventional Democrat.
That’s what is so disturbing about Fetterman is that he represents today’s Democrat moral compass. He is crass, never had a job until he was 50, supports policies out of sync with middle class principles – whether it’s late term abortion or social justice injustices. Basically, the democrat party has morphed into a conveyor of anti-working man policies, tyranny, allegiance to the elite – an agenda far afield from what it used to espouse.
I’m surprised the courts haven’t blocked the law at least with regards to “Intimidation (including pre-trial communication with witnesses or potential jurors);” — isn’t that pretty core to a functioning judicial system.
Just a question as an outsider. Is any of the campaigns in Illinois talking about Citadel, Boeing, Caterpillar, and Tyson Foods all announcing they are moving out of Illinois. McDonalds sounds pretty antsy about moving as well.
You must only be reading Oz campaign ads. Fetterman did hav a number of jobs including working in the family business. Republican policies are out of sync with the middle class and everyone else, except for the very wealthy, so right back at you. So each f them represent their own party on policy, one of them is just a lot more short on character.
Steve
It’s worse than that, PD. The standard of proof to require bail under any circumstance is impossibly high—basically no prosecutor will seek it.
Republican policies are out of sync with the middle class and everyone else, except for the very wealthy, so right back at you.
Steve, I know you emotionally like to think of Dems as representing the middle/working classes. That’s no longer the case. The Dems have become the party of big donors, Wall Street, multinational corporations, big tech – IOW, the party of the rich. Republicans, the America First segment, support blue collar, middle class America values. They comprise the core of MAGA voters who are rejecting globalism, CRT education, gender transitioning, ESG tracking, medical mandates, political correctness, BLM/Antifa waivers, censorship of opposing viewpoints, and condemnation of parents who want participatory rights in their children’s education and healthcare options.
Basically, this is an upside-down world being pushed on us, where good is now bad, and bad is now considered normal and “goodâ€. – a convoluted scenario that is unfortunately more aligned with Democrat mores and rhetoric.
So the reason that the only consistent policy the the GOP actually votes upon and supports, not just talks about, is cutting taxes for the rich would be what? Nearly everything you cite rarely occurs or not at all, just made up stuff or stuff to rile up people.
Steve
Where did cutting taxes enter the post submitted here?
What the current election is all about are the Democrat policies and ideology behind those policies middle class and working people find unacceptable and un-American. If the democrats lose in
November it will be because they have lost touch with the ideals and wishes of the common person.
It entered because it is the only consistent GOP policy. I fully understand that you regard any policy you disagree with as un-American. Makes you the perfect spokesperson for your party.
Steve
I flipped a post, earlier written about what MAGA mainstream voters rejected, to list what the opposition party (democrats) now endorse:
The current dem party embraces globalism, CRT education, gender transitioning (including pushing puberty blockers), ESG tracking, medical mandates, political correctness, BLM/Antifa waivers, censorship of opposing viewpoints, and condemnation of parents who want participatory rights in their children’s education and healthcare options.
Just today Tulsi Gabbard is leaving the Democrat party, not because it doesn’t give tax cuts, but because of it’s divisive wokeness.
Tulsi Gabbard 🌺
I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness….
BTW, I was a democrat for most of my adult years and, like Tulsi, left that party and became an unaffiliated voter, not a member of the GOP.
Gabbard’s full statement which reflects what many people think about the Democrat party these days.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/former-democrat-congresswoman-tulsi-gabbard-leaves-party_4788411.html