The preliminary results of the 2020 decennial census are in and I’m not really sure what they mean or what the implications will be. From Yahoo News:
The U.S. became more diverse and more urban over the past decade, and the non-Hispanic white population dropped for the first time on record, the Census Bureau said Thursday as it released a trove of demographic data that will be used to redraw the nation’s political maps.
The new figures offered the most detailed portrait yet of how the country has changed since 2010, and they are sure to set off an intense partisan battle over representation at a time of deep national division and fights over voting rights. The numbers could help determine control of the House in the 2022 elections and provide an electoral edge for years to come. The data will also shape how $1.5 trillion in annual federal spending is distributed.
The figures show continued migration to the South and West at the expense of counties in the Midwest and Northeast. The share of the non-Hispanic white population fell from 63.7% in 2010 to 57.8% in 2020, the lowest on record, driven by falling birthrates among white women compared with Hispanic and Asian women. The number of non-Hispanic white people shrank from 196 million in 2010 to 191 million.
White people continue to be the most prevalent racial or ethnic group, though that changed in California, where Hispanics became the largest racial or ethnic group, growing to 39.4% from 37.6% over the decade, while the share of white people dropped from 40.1% to 34.7%.
From the Census Bureau’s web site:
- The White population remained the largest race or ethnicity group in the United States, with 204.3 million people identifying as White alone. Overall, 235.4 million people reported White alone or in combination with another group. However, the White alone population decreased by 8.6% since 2010.
- The Two or More Races population (also referred to as the Multiracial population) has changed considerably since 2010. The Multiracial population was measured at 9 million people in 2010 and is now 33.8 million people in 2020, a 276% increase.
- The “in combination†multiracial populations for all race groups accounted for most of the overall changes in each racial category.
- All of the race alone or in combination groups experienced increases. The Some Other Race alone or in combination group (49.9 million) increased 129%, surpassing the Black or African American population (46.9 million) as the second-largest race alone or in combination group.
- The next largest racial populations were the Asian alone or in combination group (24 million), the American Indian and Alaska Native alone or in combination group (9.7 million), and the Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone or in combination group (1.6 million).
- The Hispanic or Latino population, which includes people of any race, was 62.1 million in 2020. The Hispanic or Latino population grew 23%, while the population that was not of Hispanic or Latino origin grew 4.3% since 2010.
all of which supports what I’ve been saying about race in the U. S. for decades.
The reality is that, except for a handful of immigrants from sub-Saharan Africa, all “blacks” in the U. S. are mixed race while, except for a handful of pure-blooded Spaniards or Portuguese who’ve emigrated from Spain, Portugal, Mexico, Central, or South America or even fewer full-blooded Native Americans who’ve emigrated from Mexico, Central, or South America nearly all “Hispanics” are mixed race as well. I think that what we can conclude is that it has become much more respectable to admit it which I think is a positive development. What it means politically I have no idea.
Note, too, that the number identifying themselves as “multi-racial” in the census is about 10% of the population. That’s smaller than the number of those who’ve identified themselves as “white”, “black”, or “Hispanic” but larger than the number of any other ethnic or racial group tracked by the census.
Update
The Wall Street Journal adds this bit of analysis:
Texas will gain two House seats and five states will gain one each: Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon. Seven states will lose one each: California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.
That change in the Electoral College will be in effect for the 2024 election.
And, as I said before, New York should thank its lucky stars. If the census were taken today, the state might well lose two seats.
