I wanted to pass along this post by George Friedman that deals with some of his fifteen year old predictions. IMO he’s right about them but almost entirely for the wrong reasons. The first prediction he discusses was that there would be no repeat of 9/11. The second is about the Chinese economy. Here’s his discussion:
China had started growing rapidly, and how long it would grow depended on the global economy and internal stability. I couldn’t predict this. However, given the early excitement about China’s growth, I felt it worthwhile to point out that China, as an exporting country, could not grow fast enough or long enough to match the United States.
The method I used to reach this conclusion was to model the emergence and decline of other export-dependent economies under pressure to grow.
The first was the United States, which, after the Civil War, found its economy shattered and domestic demand limited. Existing manufacturers shifted to exporting around 1890. By 1910, the U.S. was producing and exporting about 50 percent of the world’s industrial goods. World War I shattered Europe’s economies, crippled U.S. exports and led to the Great Depression around 1929-30, 40 years after the U.S. had begun to grow.
Something similar happened to Japan. Shattered by the end of World War II, it turned to the export market, particularly the U.S., with great success in the 1950s. By the late 1970s, the U.S. started an economic downturn that eventually slashed Japanese exports and, by the 1980s, created what was called the Lost Decade. By 1990, Japanese banks were reeling and its economic miracle was over. This occurred 40 years after the start of the Japanese exporting miracle.
China was another example of an export-dependent economy, hostage to the ability and willingness of other countries to import. I avoided assuming it would follow the 40-year cycle, as I had only two prior examples, did not understand the time cycle and wrote it off as coincidence. Now with a third example, I still don’t understand it but can’t deny it. China’s economic rise began in the 1980s, and now 40 years later in the 2020s, it is facing a similar economic slowdown to Japan.
After the Great Depression and World War II, the United States went on to great economic success, as did Japan following its economic failure. The failure of the Chinese economic model means a great deal of pain but in no way ends Chinese history. This of course depends on how the Chinese public responds to economic malfunction. That is a forecast to come.
WRT Al Qaeda, it is my opinion that any religion with the following characteristics will have a recurring problem with religiously inspired violence:
- Universal
- Sola scriptura
- Its holy book can be interpreted as sanctioning violence against non-believers
- Lack of a magisterium
I have run that past experts on Islam and its history. They tend to agree with me.
In short we may not be attacked by Al Qaeda again but we will be attacked by violent radical Muslims again.
WRT to the Chinese economy although I find his point about a 40 year cycle interesting I think his interpretation of China’s growth is flawed. He’s greatly overestimating the role of exports in China’s economy. Much of China’s growth is due to urbanization. I suspect that’s run its course. Check the real estate market.
On PPP basis, China’s economy is actually one-third larger than ours, and its manufacturing sector is 50% larger than ours. So they have caught up.
Nowadays, most of China’s exports go to the Global South, not the West. China’s economy is slowly being weaned away from the US and EU.
Also, China’s growth since the Deng reforms lifted 800 million people out of poverty to a Western European standard of living. That leaves 600 million people still in poverty. Xi and the CPC have made internal development their main priority, and that implies a doubling of the Chinese economy over the next generation. Such internal growth would also greatly reduce China’s dependence on exports.
By the way, SecSt Blinken in China reiterated US support for the One China Policy, saying the US did not support Taiwan’s independence, thereby backing away from the neocon agenda of separating Taiwan from China. The Chinese leadership disrespected him and the US, and his meeting with Xi was short and delayed. A replay of the Saudi Arabia fiasco/meeting.
Over the weekend, Biden also backed away from endorsing NATO membership for Ukraine, indicating that Ukraine would have to complete a whole series of reforms before its application could be considered.
It appears that someone in the Biden administration sobered up, and realized that a two-front war with both Russia and China would be a disaster for the US and its allies, a guaranteed American defeat. In any case, the Biden administration wants to cool things down.
On violent Islamic extremism, we are probably in an interregnum.
For China, I don’t know. They have some pretty big demographic problems that central planning is unlikely to adequately address.