If you don’t already know of them, you might be amused by this list of wrong predictions about technology in Inc.. Here’s an example:
“The world potential market for copying machines is 5,000 at most.” — IBM, to the eventual founders of Xerox, 1959.
One of the things their list of predictions brought to mind is that we’ve seen the like of Elon Musk a century ago in the form of Lee de Forest. The main difference is that de Forest actually created an impressive string of significant inventions and founded a whole series of companies, some of which are still active in somewhat different forms to this day.
Here’s a question for you. Are the pessimistic predictions about technology more laughable or are the optimistic ones?
Heh. As a guy who deals in the world of projections………..I dunno.
And if I did, I’d be one of those billionaires. Seriously, so much is just media hype. It’s nice to have an engineering background when you are in the world of committing capital. Keeps you sober.
So I’ve danced around the issue. Because the answer is who knows? You do your level best to analyze markets, technology, product and of course “can these dudes sitting accross from me really pull this off?â€
In the end, you rely on judgment and experience. When you reach for your check book you will have a moment of clarity…….
It is quite likely that in 1959 there were 5,000 potential customers. As prices dropped, the potential customers increased. Twenty years ago, a laptop was expensive, and there were few potential customers.
Reminded of a rural newspaper in a 190? edition decrying the existence of a second Victrola in the county. It threatened the peaceful quiet and serenity, etc.
Always found the optimist projections most laughable as they assume humans are saints and use say the Haber process to only make fertilizer.
“Reminded of a rural newspaper in a 190? edition decrying the existence of a second Victrola in the countyâ€
And just think, that was before Led Zeppelin……. 🤯