I found this article at Spiegel International by Monika Bolliger, Markus Brauck, Alexander Demling, Claus Hecking, Isabell Hülsen, Michael Sauga und Gerald Traufetter interesting. Here’s a succinct statement of the problem posed in the article:
Because this much is clear, even if one day there is a wind turbine on every field and a solar system on every roof: Germany will remain an energy-importing country.
and the twin challenges are replacing the oil and gas supplied by Russia and finding alternatives for the future. Algeria, Egypt, the United States, the Netherlands (hydrogen), UAE, and Australia. My guess is that it will be all of the above plus Russia. I’m skeptical that the Germans will be willing to write off the investments they’ve made in Russia.
A major factor consider is political stability. Until recently from that list I would only have named Netherlands, the U. S., and Australia as politically stable. Now I’m not sure about any of them.
Something that goes unmentioned in the article, apparently an assumption. Where will they get the rare earths to put “a wind turbine on every field and a solar system on every roof”?
When it comes to green energy, little thought is given to crucial details involving sourcing of materials (rare earth minerals), efficacy of energy produced, and importantly how readily and safely disposable are the components of green energy products (batteries of EVs, solar pamels).
Does technology never change?
Steve
As Manhattan Contrarian has demonstrated, the real cost in a wind/solar generating system is the batteries. A fully wind/solar energy system (meaning cars, home heating etc) requires batteries to smooth out the power flow and fill in the gaps. Generating gaps in a country the size of the British Isles (including Eire) often last a week or so, and occur every winter.
Manhattan Contrarian’s estimate the battery cost for a whole country is several GDP’s of that country. And the battery system has to be replaced every decade or so. So battery cost is likely to be something like one-half to one GDP per year.
Repeat. Each year you spend that year’s GDP on batteries.
Have I mentioned battery fires?
“Does technology never change?”
Of course it does, that’s no insight. But people with real technical experience know it a) sometimes doesn’t and b) is technically based, not politically, and c) is excruciatingly slow and expensive – read: not commercially viable in the short term.
I laugh at those touting the green conversion. The BP’s, Exxon’s, Royal Dutch etc of the world could make a fortune if these were viable alternatives. To first movers go the spoils. But they form organizations and fund research for appearances; they know its a dry hole right now. But they play the game. I wonder what the internal expense line item title is. Maybe, placate idiot, unscientific, politically motivated zeros expense.
How is your lottery ticket algorithm working out?
@Drew
a) sometimes doesn’t
Actually, change is well documented. Star Trek and Star Wars are just two examples.
b) is technically based, not politically
I guess you have never heard of Political Science. Politically based technology is scientific.
c) is excruciatingly slow and expensive – read: not commercially viable in the short term
Again, this is economic nonsense, and since Economics is science, it is scientific nonsense. Supply & Demand – what consumers demand will be supplied, and it will be cheap.
You need to learn how to google. Also, do not make declarative statements. Really smart people ask one sentence questions with ‘big words’.
Not science at all but religion.
We’re paying for our social and ecological sins.
The comfortable classes in the West harbor a deep guilt. They require token sacrifice they can easily afford at the expense of the less comfortable.
Unsustainable sustainability.
What will happen?
Events of course.
Unforeseen, unacceptable, intolerable events that cause people to forget foolish dreams and forge ahead with the business of survival.
There are enough people in this country for whom issues of actual survival are so remote they will not be dissuaded.
They lack imagination.
This isn’t 1945 anymore.