Paul Vallas, Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson’s erstwhile opponent for the job of mayor, has a piece at Illinois Policy decrying Mayor Johnson’s handling of negotiations with the Chicago Teachers Union:
Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson will do whatever it takes to get his cohorts at the Chicago Teachers Union the unaffordable and egregious contract it wants, and it will be just the beginning of ruining city finances.
The mayor’s failed efforts to allow his office to make loans and grants to the school district through his infrastructure proposal, much like his renewed pressure on the district to borrow $242 million for pensions, is but a prelude to the efforts he will undertake to pay for a new teachers contract that is unaffordable. It will raise property taxes and force the city to cut services.
The last record-setting contract made CTU members the highest-paid workers among large school districts and added over 9,000 new staff, all while adding $1.5 billion in new spending. That lucrative contract did not stop the CTU from engaging in two illegal work stoppages, effectively forcing the district to keep schools closed during COVID with devastating consequences.
The increased spending didn’t improve student outcomes in Chicago Public Schools: five years after the 2019 contract negotiations, 41% of students are chronically absent and fewer than 1 in 3 students are proficient in reading and even fewer are proficient in math.
The CTU’s original demands for its next contract exceeded $10 billion. However you cut it, the new contract will force Chicagoans to pay substantially more for bad outcomes.
The City of Chicago’s present S&P credit rating is BBB—the lowest investment grade bond rating. The next step would be what is called a “speculative grade”, i.e. not investment grade. The recent downgrade is a vote of “no confidence” from S&P and will mean that Chicago will pay more to finance its debt going forward.
I voted for Vallas in the last mayoral election. I have no idea how anyone expected Brandon Johnson to do anything other than what he has done.
Chicago’s population has declined by nearly a million people since its peak in 1950. I see little prospect for Chicago being able to fix its financial situation with any measure short of bankruptcy. Those who want a solid financial basis are leaving Chicago and, indeed, the state leaving Chicagoans who think they are benefiting from the city’s profligacy behind.
While Chicago, like most American cities, has lost population since 1950 (the urban population maximum), the bigger issue is that we are entering what is probably a permanent condition of continual population loss. Japan have been in that condition for years, and South Korea and Europe are beginning the long slide down, hopefully not to extinction.
So how does a falling population, and likely falling real incomes, affect the ability to repay, or even service, rising public debt.
The main reason for the fall of the Western Roman Empire was its inability to pay for its obligations, and that because its Ruling Class could not be taxed.
Of note, Russian TFR is 1.42, well below that of the US. Probably why they are stealing the Ukrainian kids.
Steve
Several European countries have TFR as 1.1, and South Korea’s is 0.7. Evry country outside sub-Saharan Africa has TFR’s below replacement, including the US’s white population.
By the way, Ukraine is Russia. It is as much Russia as Mass. and the other 13 are America, except even more so. The current Nazi junta was put in place by the US. If you support the junta, you are a 1940’s style, Holocaust-supporting Nazi.
My mistake. I thought Ukraine was a sovereign country. I guess that also applies to the Baltic countries and Poland. Once part of Russia, always apart of Russia. Anyway, I now realize that the photos of parents crying over having their kids stolen are really tears of joy that their kids get to rejoin the great Fatherland.
(Yup, there are countries with a tFR lower than Russia’s. However, the US is at 1.66 so if you think it’s really an issue, Russia goes first. Bummer.)
Steve
Population decline will still leave us with lots of people, but they will be old. And controlling most of the real estate and wealth. Gen Z hates us. It’s evident on social media, it doesn’t have to be true to gain credence in popular culture.
This is going to be very destabilizing but vary by region, not a good thing.
Steve,
Russia did not steal any Ukrainian kids. That is a lie put out by the Nazi junta. What Russia did do is evacuate civilians, including children, from civilian neighborhoods that the Nazi junta was bombing in their genocidal war against ethnic Russians.
The only way this war ends is if Russia occupies all of Ukraine, and hunts down and eliminates the Nazis.
In the pseudo-election that put Zelenskyy in power, the openly Nazi parties like Right Sector got only 1%of the popular vote. Zelenskyy ran on peace platform, but the Nazis openly threatened to kill him if he tried.
Also, Ukraine is not a sovereign state. The junta is an American proxy, and this war is between the US and Russia. The Ukrainians are caught in the cross-fire.
I totally empathize with you Bob. People evacuate stuff all the time to keep it safe. Where I live we have people who valiantly evacuate money from our local convenience stores so it wont get abused. In the US people evacuate kids from those sh&thole countries south of us so they can have a career in the personal services industry (I think that’s the euphemism). And I already agreed that of course Ukraine is not sovereign. Once a part of Russia always a part of Russia.
Query- So how long before you go after those Baltic states?
Steve