Here’s the full press release from Pfizer today and here’s the meat of the announcement:
After discussion with the FDA, the companies recently elected to drop the 32-case interim analysis and conduct the first interim analysis at a minimum of 62 cases. Upon the conclusion of those discussions, the evaluable case count reached 94 and the DMC performed its first analysis on all cases. The case split between vaccinated individuals and those who received the placebo indicates a vaccine efficacy rate above 90%, at 7 days after the second dose. This means that protection is achieved 28 days after the initiation of the vaccination, which consists of a 2-dose schedule. As the study continues, the final vaccine efficacy percentage may vary. The DMC has not reported any serious safety concerns and recommends that the study continue to collect additional safety and efficacy data as planned. The data will be discussed with regulatory authorities worldwide.
This is important, too:
Based on current projections we expect to produce globally up to 50 million vaccine doses in 2020 and up to 1.3 billion doses in 2021.
That’s all good news. If everything goes as they have planned, that would be 25 million people vaccinated by year’s end (2 doses/individual) and 650 million more in 2021. That would still be a formidable logistical problem. Assuming that the protection is lasting, I wouldn’t expect to get the vaccine before 2023.
What an amazing coincidence of timing.
Somewhat related, this study found that low prevalence of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharran Africa appears to be correlated with prior exposure to other human coronaviruses.
The good news is that the poorest part of the world least likely to have access to a vaccine may be the least at risk. Also, additional support for the idea that a vaccine may not need to be perfectly targeted to a particular stain.
Bad news appears to be that they used plasma samples from the USA as a control, and the USA samples showed very little cross-reactivity. The study cautions that it does not conclude that the worse outcomes in the USA are due to lack of this cross-reactivity, but I’m thinking this study suggests as much.
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)32310-9/fulltext
Couple of cautions.
The vaccine has to be stored and transported at-108 F.
It so far has been tested on young healthy volunteers, not high risk groups.
Still, bravo.
Apparently an exciting new avenue for vaccine development.
“What an amazing coincidence of timing.”
Pretty good but most people dont realize they botched it. The original plan was to release this on Wednesday, the next day after the election. However, the idiots running the press release had it initially published in a landscaping journal so no one saw it until today. Hard to find good help.
Steve
I think the announcement was timed but it was timed so it would be the big news of the day and would goose Pfizer’s stock price as much as possible. We’ll need to see what further news about Pfizer’s vaccine emerges in the coming weeks. While I hope for the best I won’t be surprised if the full story isn’t quite as rosy as the press release.
Agree with waiting to hear the full story. The big announcements from pharma dont always pan out.
Steve
PD, thank you for the great find.
In many ways; this adds to the evidence of an analogue to the ‘hygiene hypothesis of allergy’.
It also makes me wonder whether China’s recent substantial activity in sub-Saharan Africa contributed to outcomes there. Nearly a quarter million Chinese workers have been working in Africa including in Nigeria, Angola, and Kenya. Could they have brought mild coronaviruses back to China when they returned home?