The Return of the Jacksonians

I encourage you to read Walter Russell Mead’s analysis of events at Foreign Policy in full. Here’s a snippet:

Since World War II, U.S. grand strategy has been shaped by two major schools of thought, both focused on achieving a stable international system with the United States at the center. Hamiltonians believed that it was in the American interest for the United States to replace the United Kingdom as “the gyroscope of world order,” in the words of President Woodrow Wilson’s adviser Edward House during World War I, putting the financial and security architecture in place for a reviving global economy after World War II—something that would both contain the Soviet Union and advance U.S. interests. When the Soviet Union fell, Hamiltonians responded by doubling down on the creation of a global liberal order, understood primarily in economic terms.

Wilsonians, meanwhile, also believed that the creation of a global liberal order was a vital U.S. interest, but they conceived of it in terms of values rather than economics. Seeing corrupt and authoritarian regimes abroad as a leading cause of conflict and violence, Wilsonians sought peace through the promotion of human rights, democratic governance, and the rule of law. In the later stages of the Cold War, one branch of this camp, liberal institutionalists, focused on the promotion of international institutions and ever-closer global integration, while another branch, neoconservatives, believed that a liberal agenda could best be advanced through Washington’s unilateral efforts (or in voluntary conjunction with like-minded partners).

If you want to know where my views fit into the scheme of things, Dr. Mead does a pretty fair job of describing them here:

Jeffersonians, including today’s so-called realists, argue that reducing the United States’ global profile would reduce the costs and risks of foreign policy. They seek to define U.S. interests narrowly and advance them in the safest and most economical ways.

What has happened? Jacksonian populist nationalism has prevailed:

The distinctively American populism Trump espouses is rooted in the thought and culture of the country’s first populist president, Andrew Jackson. For Jacksonians—who formed the core of Trump’s passionately supportive base—the United States is not a political entity created and defined by a set of intellectual propositions rooted in the Enlightenment and oriented toward the fulfillment of a universal mission. Rather, it is the nation-state of the American people, and its chief business lies at home. Jacksonians see American exceptionalism not as a function of the universal appeal of American ideas, or even as a function of a unique American vocation to transform the world, but rather as rooted in the country’s singular commitment to the equality and dignity of individual American citizens. The role of the U.S. government, Jacksonians believe, is to fulfill the country’s destiny by looking after the physical security and economic well-being of the American people in their national home—and to do that while interfering as little as possible with the individual freedom that makes the country unique.

[…]

Many Jacksonians came to believe that the American establishment was no longer reliably patriotic, with “patriotism” defined as an instinctive loyalty to the well-being and values of Jacksonian America. And they were not wholly wrong, by their lights. Many Americans with cosmopolitan sympathies see their main ethical imperative as working for the betterment of humanity in general. Jacksonians locate their moral community closer to home, in fellow citizens who share a common national bond. If the cosmopolitans see Jacksonians as backward and chauvinistic, Jacksonians return the favor by seeing the cosmopolitan elite as near treasonous—people who think it is morally questionable to put their own country, and its citizens, first.

Read the whole thing (registration required).

Contrary to Dr. Mead I don’t think that the challenge that faces international politics is to “stop the liberal order’s erosion and reground the global system on a more sustainable basis”. I think it’s to prove that the “liberal order” isn’t a fraud, just another way for a small number of people to promote their own interests at the expense of everybody else.

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What I Miss About America

I miss America and I don’t think we’ll ever get that America back.

The America that I grew up in was at peace. We had just won a great war against vicious enemies. We were apprehensive but at peace. We didn’t invade other countries.

The America that I grew up in was prosperous. 90% of the people received 90% of the income and held 90% of the wealth. Any American who wanted a job could get one that paid a decent wage.

The America that I grew up in was hopeful and positive. We weren’t perfect but we were improving.

Not everything was sunshine and lollipops. Racism and segregation were real, serious, devastating problems, particularly in the American South. Little girls were prevented from going to school because of the color of their skin. But there were also presidents who sent the National Guard to protect them.

I don’t want the America of 70 years ago, with all its problems, back. I want the America I expected and that we could have been back. One in which all of us could get a fair shake and weren’t divided into contending camps at daggers drawn.

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I Will Not Fisk Yet I Will Not Fisk Yet I Will Not Fisk Yet I Will Not Fisk Yet…

I got as far as the end of the first paragraph in the article “An America First Energy Plan”, the very first article at the newly-revised White House web site before I was nearly overwhelmed by the desire to fisk all of the policy statements. Here’s the first paragraph:

Energy is an essential part of American life and a staple of the world economy. The Trump Administration is committed to energy policies that lower costs for hardworking Americans and maximize the use of American resources, freeing us from dependence on foreign oil.

Oil independence is one of those evergreens. It’s a promise made by most administrations and it’s as fatuous when asserted by the Trump Administration as when asserted by any other. Let me explain.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is the low cost producer of crude oil. As such it has an enormous influence on the price of oil. If the Saudis pump less, the price goes up. If they pump more, it goes down.

The market for crude is a global one and it reacts to price changes with nearly perfect elasticity. Said another way, Saudi policy dictates the price of oil everywhere including here. When the price becomes low enough domestic producers will stop pumping and we’ll buy more foreign oil.

There’s exactly one way that we can become truly independent of foreign oil: stop using oil entirely. Since it takes about 20 years for the U. S. auto fleet to turn over, ending the use of oil entirely is beyond the ability of any American president.

You see what I mean?

I’m going to let the dust settle before commenting on this stuff. There’s many a slip betwixt cup and the lip. Not only will it will but there will be big differences between what appears on the White House web site and what emerges from the Congress.

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Measuring Success or Failure

This is something I’ve been thinking about myself since the November election. What actual metrics can be used to reckon Donald Trump’s success or failure?

The contributors at Bloomberg View offer seventeen different ideas:

  • Number of U. S. manufacturing jobs
  • Civilian labor force in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin
  • Labor force participation rate of less-educated prime age men
  • Babies named Donald (the popularity of the name has decline sharply since 1940 after years of stability—my father-in-law’s name was Donald)
  • Number of Google searches containing the search terms “move to Canada”
  • Betting markets’ odds on Trump resignation
  • Right track, wrong track opinion polls
  • The Dow plus his approval rating (call it the “Sunstein index”)
  • Number of children who die in the Syrian civil war
  • Federal deficit as percentage of GDP
  • Trade deficit
  • Cash held by major tech sector companies offshore
  • Number of federal regulations
  • Home prices in Washington, DC
  • Number of Google searches containing the search term “Bannon”
  • Real median income
  • Number of Bloomberg View headlines including the word “Trump”

To those I’d add

  • Number of Americans killed in terrorist attacks and
  • Number of American soldiers killed in war and
  • Number of Chicago homicides and

the only somewhat facetious

  • Number of nuclear weapons used offensively or defensively

In all seriousness, what metrics could be used to measure the Trump Administration’s success or failure?

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Now It’s Time to Play…

Let’s play a game! Identify as many attempts to shoehorn Donald Trump into a coherent intellectual framework as you can. So far I’ve found three.

I suspect that President Trump will defy all such attempts.

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This Time For Sure

I apologize. It’s unkind of me and a character flaw but I find myself incapable of seeing or hearing Melania Trump without thinking it means Big Trouble for Moose and Squirrel.

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Prediction

I predict that over the next 12 months Barack Obama’s approval rating will rise at least five points and President Trump’s will fall at least five points as calculated by the Gallup organization.

Keep in mind that if both of those things don’t happen it will be bucking the trend of history.

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The Headwinds

I don’t know that there’s any pundit with whom I agree more frequently or deeply than Charlie Cook. In his most recent offering at National Journal, Mr. Cook outlines the headwinds that President Trump will face. In summary they are:

  • Unpopularity
  • Ignorance of policy details
  • The unrealistically high expectations of his supporters
  • An extremely adversarial press corps
  • A dangerous world in which many problems can’t be solved, only managed

He concludes:

It’s been said that no one is truly pre­pared to as­sume the pres­id­ency of the United States. That is un­ques­tion­ably true. Every pres­id­ent has to grow in­to the job, none more so than Don­ald J. Trump.

As I’ve written before there are two distinctly different strategies that presidents use with their staffs. There’s the micromanager like Bill Clinton or Jimmy Carter on the one hand and the staff manager like Ike or Ronald Reagan.

I see little evidence that Mr. Trump has the personal qualities required for staff management and he’s not a policy wonk like Clinton. We’ll see.

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Anti-Anti-Globalization

Fareed Zakaria believes that opposition to globalization is an error. From his most recent Washington Post column:

The global economy is still dominated by large American firms; 134 of Fortune’s Global 500 are American. And if you look at those in cutting-edge industries, the vast majority are American. These companies have benefited enormously by having global supply chains that can source goods and services around the world, either to lower labor costs or to be close to the markets in which they sell. Since 95 percent of the world’s potential consumers live outside the United States, finding ways to sell to them will have to be a core strategy for growth, even for a country with a large domestic economy such as the United States.

Mr. Zakaria has made a basic error there, presumably because he doesn’t understand the nature of markets.

Not all individuals are prospective customers. You can’t just count heads and say “that’s our market”. At its most basic to be a prospective customer an individual must have what’s called the “willingness to pay”. Willingness to pay is a term of art and does not mean desire. It means you have the money to pay for something and the freedom to make a purchase decision as well as the desire to do it. The reality is that most of the people in the world are not prospective customers for American-made goods either because they’re too poor or because tariffs, quotas, and outright bans prevented American-made goods from reaching them at all.

The U. S., China, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Brazil, just to name a few, are competing for the same pool of customers. China is competing for those customers on the basis of price; Germany on the basis of quality. Much of what the U. S. is selling is abroad is either arms or financial services. Subsistence farmers in China, India, and Nigeria are not good prospects for either of those.

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The New New World Order

In his latest column in the Washington Post David Ignatius worries that the changes in foreign police effected by the incoming administration will be for the worse:

In a study titled “Strategic Choices for a Turbulent World,” Rand described a global tipping point: “The post-Cold War period is over. While historians may argue about the timing, it has become clear to most foreign-policy practitioners that the world has entered a new era, a complex age of turbulence and opportunity.”

A “Come Home America” strategy similar to what Trump proposes would narrow U.S. goals and influence “in exchange for limiting U.S. exposure to a more unstable world,” the Rand report argued. Russia and China would seek to benefit, and although Russia has long-term economic troubles, “declining powers can sometimes be the most dangerous.”

Trump has a big vision of deals with Russia, China and Europe that could redraw the terms of trade and rebalance an unstable world, to America’s benefit. And he’s the leader, now, of a worldwide movement against a globalization that disproportionately benefited elites in the United States and Europe. But as Lew says, this “anti-expert, anti-elite mood . . . doesn’t change classical economics.”

and I think that those are reasonable concerns. Defending the status quo is a mug’s game; change is the only thing of which we can be assured. Would taking David Ignatius’s advice improve things? If any president would, we’d have significant numbers of troops mired in conflicts in a half dozen more countries than we’re fighting in now.

How is NATO not obsolete? What is its role today? We’re already in a trade war with China—we’re just not shooting back. What should trade policy be, other than tolerating other countries using a one-two punch of currency manipulation and government subsidies to siphon whole industries away from the United States?

I can’t tell you what Trump will do. I don’t think that anyone including Trump does, not the least because he thinks transactionally rather than strategically or even tactically.

I can tell you what I would do. Limit our use of force to the American interest and when there is no other recourse; have a policy of trade reciprocity, at least in the near term; stop expanding NATO and ensure that our NATO allies live up to their side of the bargain. Will Trump do any of those things? I doubt it. Who knows? It’s a brave, new world.

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