At The National Interest Salvatore Babones argues that, while the United States may not be winning the present “trade war”, the Chinese are definitely losing:
Trump’s aggressive push on tariffs has thrown the country’s expert class into a tizzy, with pundits predicting a severe shock to the American economy, blaming the trade war for every blip in stock prices, and warning of the potential for runaway inflation as consumers pay the price for Trump’s tariffs.
Meanwhile the economy is employing record numbers of people, inflation is running well below the Fed’s target rate, and stock markets are slightly up since the beginning of the “trade war†in April. The data simply refuses to satisfy the pundits’ appetite for economic carnage.
With the economy refusing to cooperate with their “gloom and doom†narrative, America’s pundits are now arguing that economic pressure is no way to get a trade deal from China. When a Chinese Communist Party newspaper tells them that “China will never give in to pressure,†they believe it.
And who knows? Maybe they’re right. But if China doesn’t give in to pressure, then its manufacturing base will continue moving to Vietnam and India. Less labor-intensive assembly work will move to Mexico, which has now displaced China as America’s top trade partner. China will lose its unique position at the center of global production networks, and with it much of its leverage over global politics.
Read the whole thing. Some of which you should be aware is that Dr. Babones’s field of study is the frequently counter-productive if not self-destructive role of experts nowadays.
All other things being equal I’m an enthusiastic supporter of free trade but all other things have not been equal. The Chinese leadership has been very successful at using a combination of subsidies, trade policy, currency manipulation, and espionage to undermine the United States. The U. S. has been a big loser under the neoliberal policies that have led to China’s rapid rise.
But it hasn’t been the biggest loser. I would give that laurel to Mexico which prior to China’s rise was poised to play a major role in global manufacturing. Since I’m completely in favor of improving economies in Mexico, Vietnam, and India, I applaud present developments.






