What’s Their Problem?

In his Wall Street Journal column Daniel Henninger tries to identify the Democrats’ core problem:

Now that Bernie Sanders—once an obscure socialist senator from Vermont—is officially the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination, it is time to confront what that means.

It does not mean the U.S. is flirting with socialism. That’s not going to happen. The meaning of Bernie’s ascent is that the Democratic Party, older even than he is, has simply run out of gas.

The Democrats resemble Europe’s aging political parties—Britain’s Labour, France’s Socialists, Germany’s Social Democrats and Christian Democrats. All have simply deflated with voters.

Signs of public fatigue with the Democrats could be seen in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Besides incompetence, the big story out of Iowa was low turnout. In New Hampshire the story was voter indecision. Once past Bernie’s 25% cement-block base, many voters were flipping a coin in the voting booth to pick from the other candidates.

What does it mean that Elizabeth Warren, by now a household name, got dropped to fourth place? Joe Biden’s humiliating fifth is a personal disaster, but what does that say about the party itself?

Circling overhead is Mike Bloomberg, supposedly the party’s savior. The truth is Barack Obama was the party’s final savior, and a second coming isn’t likely. Recall the talk after the 2016 election about how the Democrats had “no bench.” They just rolled benchless into 2020.

The Democrats’ floundering to find a candidate is deeper than the split between moderates and the left. It looks to me like the accumulated costs of its long history as the self-declared party of government are finally coming due.

The party’s problem is that it doesn’t look competent anymore.

I don’t think that any of those is the Democrats’ core problem. I think their core problem is conflicting objectives. For the Democratic nomenklatura, who depend on influence peddling and public office for their livelihoods and those of their families, the Prime Directive is keeping both of those alive. To do that they are paying lip service to the often conflicting goals of the financial sector, blacks, Hispanics, and young people, maintaining their loyalty without actually fulfilling the at least implied promises they’re making.

I think the solution for that nomenklatura is to be satisfied with a smaller cut of the take and to start fulfilling their promises. They can’t do that without angering some of those constituencies. They must choose among them.

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Is Bernie Sanders a Socialist?

I have only one thing to say about Paul Krugman’s full-throated defense of Bernie Sanders in his New York Times column:

The thing is, Bernie Sanders isn’t actually a socialist in any normal sense of the term. He doesn’t want to nationalize our major industries and replace markets with central planning; he has expressed admiration, not for Venezuela, but for Denmark. He’s basically what Europeans would call a social democrat — and social democracies like Denmark are, in fact, quite nice places to live, with societies that are, if anything, freer than our own.

He’s wrong. Nearly everything he said is wrong.

Nationalization

Back in the 70s Bernie Sanders advocated the nationalization of energy companies, factories, and banks. More recently his Medicare for All proposal effectively nationalizes health care insurance.

He has advocated public ownership of the means of production. Money is the most important means of production and that is already nationalized.

He’s actually a lot like the old Fabian socialists.

Centralized Planning

His identification of democracy with public ownership and his advocacy of worker ownership of companies are at odds. Public ownership means centralized planning. I’m more sympathetic with worker ownership but the reality is that workers don’t really want to own the companies they work for. If they wanted to they could.

Praise for Venezuela and Cuba

In 2011 Bernie Sanders spoke in praise of Venezuela, a position he has tried to walk back. Back in the 80s he praised Castro, Cuba, and the Soviet Union. Famously, he honeymooned in the Soviet Union.

Praise for Denmark

His praise for Denmark has been focused on the most socialistic aspects of Danish society not the most capitalistic. I think he’s mistaking “democratic socialism” for Scandinavian ethnic cohesion and Lutheran social doctrine. I agree that the Danes and Swedes are probably freer than we are. The Danes aren’t socialists; they’re Lutherans, at least culturally.

As far as I’m concerned Sen. Sanders is an old-fashioned parlor pink and Dr. Krugman’s column is yet another attempt at sanitizing the senator’s record, something I suspect we will be seeing a lot of from the media in days to come.

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The Flap Over the AG

I suppose I should comment about the argument by proxy between President Trump and Attorney General William Barr. I’ve said many times in the past that I don’t understand President Trump’s thought processes at all. I don’t think he should be tweeting at all let alone as frequently as he does. I agree with AG Barr that the president shouldn’t be tweeting about cases in progress or exerting what the military calls “unlawful command influence” over cases or sentencing.

I think that presidential appointees shouldn’t be airing their disagreements with their boss in public and that presidents deserve to have subordinates in whom they can be confident. It is fully within President Trump’s authority to fire Bill Barr. I think he’d be a fool to do so.

I also have a little, tiny paranoid streak that makes me wonder if this flap isn’t battlespace preparation.

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States Attorney’s Race

We are receiving a considerable volume of television spots from the candidates for Cook County States Attorney. The job of the States Attorney is to prosecute crimes and secure convictions but you would not know that from the political advertisements. Were you to base your notions of the job solely on the ads, they would convince you that both candidates were running for Cook County Public Defender.

That’s an appointive office and to the best of my knowledge does not report to the States Attorney but to the County Board and President.

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Ignoring the Obvious

In a re-print of his Wall Street Journal column at MSN, William Galston admonishes Democrats not to “hit the panic button”:

Rarely has a political party gone from confidence to gloom as quickly as Democrats did last week. In rapid-fire blows, impeachment foundered in the Senate, President Trump delivered a politically effective State of the Union address, and the Iowa caucuses imploded in a flurry of intraparty recriminations.

[…]

To those of us who have been around for a while, the Democrats’ abrupt descent into despair seems premature.

His next passage made me chuckle:

Compared with the Democratic divisions of 1968, today’s seem minor.

An interesting example to choose. Hubert Humphrey lost that election to Richard Nixon. But, more importantly, it precedes the creation of the entire complex system of primaries and superdelegates the Democrats have put into place. That didn’t happen until after the disastrous 1972 election. There is simply no comparison to be made between 1968 and 2020. That past isn’t just another country—it’s a different planet.

He continues:

This year, opposition to Mr. Trump among Democrats is pervasive and intense, making it likely that the party will close ranks behind its nominee.

Okay, you picked 1968. Let’s run with it. Opposition among Democrats to Richard Nixon was “pervasive and intense”, too. Honestly, that’s the only comparison I can make to the opposition to Trump. But Democrats emphatically did not “close ranks” behind Hubert Humphrey. Why? Let me suggest that, much as today, there was a cohort of Democrats who simply could not support the party’s chosen candidate. Shades of “Bernie Bros”.

He concludes:

The voters who will decide the 2020 election yearn for less conflict, for a brand of politics that focuses on solving problems rather than scoring points. If the Democrats offer the country such a choice, they may well prevail over an incumbent president who rarely reaches out to the 54% of voters who didn’t support him in 2016.

This seems to be my day for Jewish wisecracks. Here’s another one: As di bubbe volt gehat beytsim volt zi gevain mayn zaidah. If my grandmother had balls, she’d be my grandfather. At this moment Democrats seem more intent on emulating Trump than repudiating his truculent approach to politics.

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How Can We Know?

I’m reading all sorts of breathless and, in my view, unreasonably confident claims about what has been officially dubbed COVID-19 but which, until that catches on, I will continue to call the Wuhan coronavirus. There have now been 60,000 cases diagnosed. There have been 1,100 deaths. How do we know? The Chinese authorities continue to demur from allowing foreigners to review their numbers. I don’t think we know whether there have been 60,000 cases in China, 600,000, or 6 million. We don’t know whether the mortality rate is 2%, .2%, or 20%.

Judging from the pictures of deserted streets in multiple cities I have seen the Chinese people are reacting with substantially more concern than would seem to be warranted by 60,000 cases, an insignificant number in a country of over a billion individuals.

There is an old rabbinic saying—when a woman country comes from a far country and tells you she’s divorced, believe her. Translation: when you can’t verify the actual facts, additional credence should be placed on claims, especially when they do not portray the individual in a completely favorable light. Conversely, when you can’t verify the facts, you’re told that your concern is insignificant, but the ones making the claim are acting as though it were the apocalypse, taking the claim with a generous dose of salt would seem to be prudent.

With the news of an asymptomatic Brit who spent a couple of days in Singapore spreading the virus to 11 others, hopes that we can avoid a pandemic would appear to be fading. Much, much more stringent measures than those already put in place would be required and, frankly, I just don’t believe we will put those measures in force.

So it looks as though Wuhan coronavirus may well be in your future, mine, and that of many, many others.

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Families

At The Atlantic David Brooks pronounces the nuclear family dead and, indeed, a terrible mistake:

“In my childhood,” Levinson told me, “you’d gather around the grandparents and they would tell the family stories … Now individuals sit around the TV, watching other families’ stories.” The main theme of Avalon, he said, is “the decentralization of the family. And that has continued even further today. Once, families at least gathered around the television. Now each person has their own screen.”

This is the story of our times—the story of the family, once a dense cluster of many siblings and extended kin, fragmenting into ever smaller and more fragile forms. The initial result of that fragmentation, the nuclear family, didn’t seem so bad. But then, because the nuclear family is so brittle, the fragmentation continued. In many sectors of society, nuclear families fragmented into single-parent families, single-parent families into chaotic families or no families.

If you want to summarize the changes in family structure over the past century, the truest thing to say is this: We’ve made life freer for individuals and more unstable for families. We’ve made life better for adults but worse for children. We’ve moved from big, interconnected, and extended families, which helped protect the most vulnerable people in society from the shocks of life, to smaller, detached nuclear families (a married couple and their children), which give the most privileged people in society room to maximize their talents and expand their options. The shift from bigger and interconnected extended families to smaller and detached nuclear families ultimately led to a familial system that liberates the rich and ravages the working-class and the poor.

This article is about that process, and the devastation it has wrought—and about how Americans are now groping to build new kinds of family and find better ways to live.

The problem with his article is that it is historically, anthropologically, and psychologically ignorant. Let’s start with the history. He claims that the absolute nuclear family only prevailed in the United States between 1950 and about 1965. That’s untrue.

Anthropologists have done quite a bit of analysis of family structures. It’s one of the central topics of the field. There are many, many different family structures around the world. In Europe four different family structures prevailed: the absolute nuclear family, the egalitarian nuclear family, the stem family, and the communitarian family. Here are their definitions:

Type Definition Where prevalent
Absolute nuclear Total emancipation of children in adulthood to form independent families made simply of a couple and their children. Division of inheritance among children by testament or will, usually to a single individual, often the son. Brothers and sisters are treated as independent individuals England, non-Highland Scotland, Netherlands, Denmark, parts of Sweden and Norway
Egalitarian nuclear Total emancipation of children in adulthood to form independent families made simply of a couple and their children. Equal division of inheritance among children. This system encourages the persistence of slightly stronger relations between parents and children until the inheritance is completely divided after the parents’ death Parts of France, Spain, parts of Italy
Stem family Extended families with several generations living under one roof. One child – generally, but not always, the eldest – marries and has children that remain in the household in order to preserve the lineage. The rest have the choice of remaining unmarried within the household or of marrying and leaving the home or becoming soldiers or priests. The house and the land are inherited by the son who stays at home. Others may receive some financial compensation. The inheriting son, who stays at home, remains under the formal authority of the father Germany, parts of Scandinavia, Switzerland
Communitarian Extended family in which all sons can get married and bring their wives to the family home. Equality among children in inheritance, with family wealth and estates divided after the death of parent (although a period of cohabitation between married brothers after the death of the parents is possible) Parts of Italy, parts of Russia

These can be organized along two axes like this:

  Egalitarian Non-egalitarian
Strong authority Communitarian Stem
Weak authority Egalitarian nuclear Absolute nuclear

There is evidence that these family structures have been in place throughout Europe for thousands of years and it has been suggested that differences in outcomes throughout Europe may be attributed to the types of family structures that prevailed in different places. Short version: the absolute nuclear family was emphatically not invented in 1950. Brooks is simply wrong.

I became interested in this subject through my family’s history. Although I was reared in an absolute nuclear family, I knew my father was not. I learned in my studies that he was reared in a variant of the communitarian family that prevailed where my ancestors in Switzerland originated. In that variant siblings could marry, all property belonged to the patriarch and was inherited by the eldest son. My great-grandfather Schuler attempted, unsuccessfully, to continue that in the United States.

I don’t know what family structure is best-suited to modern life in America. I’m pretty confident that grandparent-headed or single parent-headed families are not it. The one thing that should be kept in mind: places where the absolute nuclear family prevailed created liberal democracy and market economies. Our notions of individual freedoms arose from the soil of the absolute nuclear family. Whether they can survive the death of the absolute nuclear family is a gamble.

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Maybe Not the Pep Talk They Need

At Politico Ryan Lizza has some words of encouragement for the Democrats. Sort of. Your field is so screwed up that even Joe Biden could ultimately prevail:

Democrats don’t have an obvious candidate who they can rally around. Indecision is the most common theme I encountered among voters at more than a dozen events in New Hampshire since Friday. (Perhaps this should have been more obvious when even The New York Times editorial board couldn’t pick a single candidate.) There’s no reason to think the choice will get easier after Tuesday.

What’s driving the indecision is not a plethora of great choices, but the fact that there are seven candidates in the mix, each of whom has at least one very serious flaw.

There is no candidate who can deliver the kind of knockout punch that defined some previous Democratic primary races, such as Al Gore’s 2000 win and John Kerry’s 2004 win, when they each won Iowa and New Hampshire and never looked back. There’s some chance the race could gradually narrow to a two-person fight, as happened in 2008 (Obama vs. Clinton) and 2016 (Sanders vs. Clinton), but New Hampshire is unlikely to clarify who those two candidates are.

After sketching just what some of those flaws are he concludes:

And so Biden will get a second chance if he passes the one 2020 test he set for himself long ago: winning South Carolina. Plausible!

He’s actually making the argument for a convention in which the party leadership discards the primary results and selects the party’s presidential candidate. Plan C!

Under Plan C the 2020 Democratic presidential candidate wouldn’t even need to be someone who actually ran in any primaries. It could be but it wouldn’t need to be. It could be Hillary Clinton. It could be Oprah. It could be practically anybody.

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The Democrats’ Predicament

At The Week Matthew Walther muses about the Democrats’ predicament:

Unlike Gaul, the Democratic primary electorate is divided into only two parts. Bernie Sanders’s victory in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary reminded observers of what we have known for a long time, namely that the smaller of these two parts remains united in favor of his candidacy for the Democratic presidential nomination. The larger moderate one remains split, not quite evenly, between Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren, and Joe Biden.

We know which side the Democratic National Committee, the party’s leadership in Congress, wealthy mega-donors, and luminaries like the Obamas and the Clintons are on. We also know that they are willing to do pretty much anything to prevent Sanders from winning the nomination in 2020. The question is whether they will be able to.

I am not so sure the answer is yes.

I don’t think that’s “the question”. I think the question is whether they will be willing to. Rahm Emanuel articulated the choice that the Democrats face pretty well. They can run Bernie Sanders as their presidential candidate and in all likelihood lose in the general election or they can split the party.

The party nomenklatura can do pretty much anything they care to. They could simply ban Sanders from being put on the ballot as a Democrat. He isn’t one, after all. They could alter their present rules and just award his delegates to other candidates on those grounds or some other they come up with. There are all sorts of things they can do. But will they? Frankly, I doubt it.

There are several different ways of looking at the general election. Plan A has already failed. Plan B operates under the theory that anyone running on the Democratic ticket will beat Trump in November. I would have thought that 2016 would have persuaded the Democrats otherwise but apparently not.

If Biden continues to tank, Democrats are left with the following alternatives

  • An elderly “democratic socialist” whose preferred policies actually resemble those of much more radical regimes than they do those of the Scandinavian social democracies he claims to admire.
  • A Red Diaper baby who has never held anything other than local office and whose primary vote counts are more votes than he’s ever received before.
  • Hillary v2.0
  • Amy Klobuchar who, apparently, is mean to her staff
  • A billionaire former New York mayor

They’d best hope that Plan B will work.

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Political Message of the Day

If you dance with the devil, then you haven’t got a clue, for you think you’ll change the devil, but the devil changes you.

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