Is the Problem Systemic Police Racism?

At the Wall Street Journal Heather Mac Donald challenges the notion that the underlying problem is systemic police racism:

This charge of systemic police bias was wrong during the Obama years and remains so today. However sickening the video of Floyd’s arrest, it isn’t representative of the 375 million annual contacts that police officers have with civilians. A solid body of evidence finds no structural bias in the criminal-justice system with regard to arrests, prosecution or sentencing. Crime and suspect behavior, not race, determine most police actions.

In 2019 police officers fatally shot 1,004 people, most of whom were armed or otherwise dangerous. African-Americans were about a quarter of those killed by cops last year (235), a ratio that has remained stable since 2015. That share of black victims is less than what the black crime rate would predict, since police shootings are a function of how often officers encounter armed and violent suspects. In 2018, the latest year for which such data have been published, African-Americans made up 53% of known homicide offenders in the U.S. and commit about 60% of robberies, though they are 13% of the population.

The police fatally shot nine unarmed blacks and 19 unarmed whites in 2019, according to a Washington Post database, down from 38 and 32, respectively, in 2015. The Post defines “unarmed” broadly to include such cases as a suspect in Newark, N.J., who had a loaded handgun in his car during a police chase. In 2018 there were 7,407 black homicide victims. Assuming a comparable number of victims last year, those nine unarmed black victims of police shootings represent 0.1% of all African-Americans killed in 2019. By contrast, a police officer is 18½ times more likely to be killed by a black male than an unarmed black male is to be killed by a police officer.

On Memorial Day weekend in Chicago alone, 10 African-Americans were killed in drive-by shootings. Such routine violence has continued—a 72-year-old Chicago man shot in the face on May 29 by a gunman who fired about a dozen shots into a residence; two 19-year-old women on the South Side shot to death as they sat in a parked car a few hours earlier; a 16-year-old boy fatally stabbed with his own knife that same day. This past weekend, 80 Chicagoans were shot in drive-by shootings, 21 fatally, the victims overwhelmingly black. Police shootings are not the reason that blacks die of homicide at eight times the rate of whites and Hispanics combined; criminal violence is.

The latest in a series of studies undercutting the claim of systemic police bias was published in August 2019 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The researchers found that the more frequently officers encounter violent suspects from any given racial group, the greater the chance that a member of that group will be fatally shot by a police officer. There is “no significant evidence of antiblack disparity in the likelihood of being fatally shot by police,” they concluded.

A 2015 Justice Department analysis of the Philadelphia Police Department found that white police officers were less likely than black or Hispanic officers to shoot unarmed black suspects. Research by Harvard economist Roland G. Fryer Jr. also found no evidence of racial discrimination in shootings. Any evidence to the contrary fails to take into account crime rates and civilian behavior before and during interactions with police.

The false narrative of systemic police bias resulted in targeted killings of officers during the Obama presidency. The pattern may be repeating itself. Officers are being assaulted and shot at while they try to arrest gun suspects or respond to the growing riots. Police precincts and courthouses have been destroyed with impunity, which will encourage more civilization-destroying violence. If the Ferguson effect of officers backing off law enforcement in minority neighborhoods is reborn as the Minneapolis effect, the thousands of law-abiding African-Americans who depend on the police for basic safety will once again be the victims.

The Minneapolis officers who arrested George Floyd must be held accountable for their excessive use of force and callous indifference to his distress. Police training needs to double down on de-escalation tactics. But Floyd’s death should not undermine the legitimacy of American law enforcement, without which we will continue on a path toward chaos.

In that litany I do not find the observation “white police officers were less likely than black or Hispanic officers to shoot unarmed black suspects” particularly convincing. That could as easily be indicative of white racism is not. That’s the paradox. Any difference in the handling of black suspects on the part of white officers might be indicative of racism. Moreover, black and Hispanic officers are quite capable of anti-black racism themselves.

I don’t know what the underlying problem is and I do think that our police departments are in substantial need of reform. I’m wary of demand for immediate and unconditional elimination of the killing of black suspects by white police officers if for no other reason that it might actually place more black people in jeopardy than the status quo.

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Facts, Myths, and Disinformation

This looks like a good place to begin a little inquiry. The editors of the Washington Post are alarmed at the disinformation and distortions being promulgated:

“WHERE ARE the protesters?” asked several accounts on Twitter early Monday morning, after most Washingtonians had gone to bed and the Web-waves had quieted. Using the hashtag #DCblackout, they claimed that communications downtown had been blocked to cover up police violence. Then came a series of suspicious missives in identical language declaring that all was well — spurring more concern among observers that something fishy really was afoot.

The entire thing was a ploy, carried out through fraudulent accounts and designed, it appears, to instill panic.

The #DCblackout scare is only one example of the disinformation flourishing amid the week’s anguish and unrest. The favorite tactic of Internet meddlers has been to exploit existing rifts in our society rather than to break open new ones on their own, and this crisis in particular may be ripe for infiltration. The largest Russian troll farm on Facebook leading up to the 2016 election had a go-to topic for sowing discord and division: Black Lives Matter. The Internet Research Agency even attempted to recruit the family members of African Americans killed by the police. America’s endemic racism is an Achilles’ heel.

Let’s start compiling a little list of the disinformation and distortions presently being promulgated. This is just a first approximation. Feel free to contribute your own candidates for the list. If you disagree that something on the list is either disinformation or a distortion, please provide evidence. The best sort of evidence would be multiple independent corroborations, especially from disinterested sources or sources on differing parts of the political spectrum. For example, a news report from the Washington Post and another distinct news report from the Wall Street Journal would be convincing evidence.

A few cautions. Extrapolation from what we believe to be true is not evidence. It’s an unproven hypothesis. Absence of an alternative explanation isn’t evidence, either.

Here we go:

  • Communications blackout in Washington, DC to cover up police violence (see above)
  • The rioting and violence in many American cities is being coordinated by Antifa or some left wing or anarchist groups.

    I have been unable to find a corroboration from a reliable source of the reports that loads of bricks have been pre-positioned in some of the riot areas or any other evidence of coordinated activity by left wing or anarchist groups. That having been said I would be tremendously surprised if there were no individual or even group left-wing or anarchist participation in the rioting and looting (the distinction between coordination).

  • The rioting and violence in many American cities is being perpetrated and/or aggravated in an organized way by white supremacists.

    Again, no evidence but I’d be tremendously surprised, etc.

  • The rioting and violence in many American cities is the work of organized criminal gangs.

    Despite Mayor Lightfoot having mentioned this multiple times I have found no corroborating evidence of it. Getting a panel van does not require a great deal of organization.

  • There is systemic racism in America’s police forces.

    More on this later.

  • President Trump’s entourage used tear gas on the demonstrators to enable Trump to have a photo op brandishing a Bible.

    Trump denies this adamantly. I suspect it was pepper spray rather than tear gas.

It might be entertaining to come up with a list of the disinformation and distortions associated with COVID-19. There’s certainly a lot of it.

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There’s Something I Don’t See Everyday


This morning as Kara and I returned from our walk (about 55 minutes, 3 miles with me bearing 30 lb. of wrist and ankle weights) we were treated to the sight above. I couldn’t tell immediately if the man were breathing. I went into the house to see if my wife knew anything about him. She didn’t.

Concerned that he needed help but also concerned that he might be violent, I had my wife call 911 while I monitored the situation outside. The man did not respond to our inquiries.

Within a few minutes some Fire Department paramedics and a CPD squad car had arrived. The paramedics got him to his feet, checked his pockets (screw driver, pocket knife, pack of cigarettes), put him on a stretcher, and took him off. I don’t know whether for treatment or to sleep it off or, maybe some of both.

And that was our adventure for this morning.

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How to Reform

While I agree with those demonstrating in the streets that reform is necessary, I’m concerned that the gulf between the objectives that the demonstrators presumably want to accomplish based on the interviews I’m hearing and the means at hand to accomplish them is too great for them ever to be accomplished. In the interests of furthering the discussion let me propose my program for improvement:

1. Eliminate qualified immunity

“Qualified immunity” is the legal doctrine by which government officials including police officers are shielded from suit for discretionary actions performed within their official capacity. It also needs to be clearly understood that no action that is expressly against the policy of the jurisdiction by which government officials are employed can be deemed “within their official capacity”.

2. Sovereign immunity should be restored

There has been a movement over the last half century to allow state and local governments to be sued for the misconduct of government officials. The City of Chicago was sued for the misconduct of Jon Burge and those under his command. I have no problem with with people being sued over their own malfeasance. I do have a problem with the people of Chicago continuing to pay for things that are beyond their control. The accountability should be at the ballot box not from the public purse.

3. Reduce the power of police unions

Police unions are among the impediments to providing necessary discipline to police forces.

4. Better training for police officers with more community involvement.

IMO if all of those things were done in combination it wouldn’t unconditionally eliminate the greater problem that people are demonstrating about. It might mitigate it somewhat. I don’t know what measures would unconditionally eliminate the problem in a country of 330 million people.

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Okay, How? Part III

I find the spectacle of governors and mayor who have unswervingly kept their states and cities locked down for the last three months but have suddenly become concerned about violating First Amendment rights or the right to freedom of assembly with respect to the sometimes demonstrators, sometimes protesters, sometimes rioters and looters who are destroying their cities baffling. They set aside free speech areas during political conventions why not now?

Yesterday I endured an excruciating presentation by Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot in which she and city department heads including the police commissioner, one after another, explained to us how hard they were trying. I am not their mother. I honestly don’t care how hard the situation they face is or how hard they’re trying. I did not ask the mayor to take the job. Quite to the contrary she campaigned for it. If it’s too difficult for her, she should resign and let someone else undertake the responsibilities.

I think I understand the predicament they face. They don’t want to undermine their own authority, they don’t want to aggravate the situation, but they don’t want their city to burn, either. There’s quite a bit of knowledge about dealing with crowds although for some reason or other it hasn’t been much studied lately. The main thing to remember is that a crowd can transform into an aggressive mob in which the people are doing things they wouldn’t think of as individuals with frightening suddenness. Really, sometimes all it take is one individual yelling “Hey, let’s start looting!”

If they’re unwilling to limit demonstrations to designated areas, far from shopping areas, they need to be ready to demonstrate overwhelming presence if not overwhelming force and be prepared at the same time for mass arrests, something that should take place the moment the first rock, bottle, or brick is thrown. Something else that surprised me was that they seemed to think that 500 arrests in a day was a lot. It’s a lot if there are only 500 people engaging in mob action or disorderly conduct. If 1,000 people are engaging in such actions, it’s not nearly enough.

They can’t allow the demonstrators to overwhelm the system. They’ll need to cut some corners. They should have a lot of cable ties on hand. And if incarcerating those engaging in disorderly conduct or mob action results in all of them contracting COVID-19, so be it. Certainly exercising their rights of free assembly and speech were worth it.

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Okay, How? Part II

The editors of the Washington Post are outraged over President Trump’s behavior:

Mr. Trump’s dog whistles and bullhorn blasts help ensure that police will remain unaccountable — rarely indicted when they kill unarmed people; frequently cleared when they are disciplined; often reinstated when they are fired for misconduct. They suggest there will be no change in racial profiling or unjustified officer-involved killings. Having torn up his predecessor’s blueprint, Mr. Trump now has nothing to offer — no prescriptions, no healing and no vision beyond a status quo many Americans abhor. In reality, his slogans and impulses signal a disrespect for law, and path away from order.

Okay, I get it. The editors don’t like Trump and think his approach is counter-productive. New York, San Francisco, Chicago, Los Angeles, Spokane, and many American cities experienced looting and destruction again last night. What do they propose?

I also think that President Trump is over-estimating his authority under the Posse Comitatus and Insurrection Acts. In short, there’s little he can do legally unless asked for help by the legislature of a state or the state’s governor if the legislature is unable to act.

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Okay, How?

I started reading this New York Times op-ed by epidemiologists Dillon C. Adam and Benjamin J. Cowling on “superspreading” with some excitement, thinking it might be an important contribution to understanding. I was disappointed.

The phenomenon of “superspreaders”, individuals more likely to infect others, has been recognized for some time and has been described in the context of COVID-19 since it’s been known that the virus was spread person-to-person. To save you the trouble of reading the op-ed 20% of cases account for 80% of transmission. There’s also a survey of the literature.

Here’s the most valuable paragraph in the piece:

We are not aware of any study having been published that identifies individual characteristics that might account for an infected person’s degree of infectiousness or could otherwise help predict who may be a superspreader.

and here’s their conclusion:

The epidemic’s growth can be controlled effectively with tactics far less disruptive, socially and economically, than the extended lockdowns or other extreme forms of social distancing that much of the world has experienced over the past few months.

Forget about maintaining — or, if infections resurge, resuming — sweeping measures designed to stem the virus’s spread in all forms. Just focus on stopping the superspreading.

Okay, I’ll bite. How? As they pointed out there are no known characteristics that can account for degree of infectiousness. That’s just about as helpful as pointing out that you can end crime by stopping criminals.

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For Years to Come

In their editorial on the violence over the weekend, the editors of the Wall Street Journal sound a lot of the themes I did in my post on the subject above:

The violence that broke out in American cities this weekend goes far beyond justified anger at the killing of George Floyd on Monday. The rioters are looting shops and attacking police with impunity, and they threaten a larger breakdown of public order. Protecting the innocent and restoring order is the first duty of government.

The violent scenes in more than 30 cities were the worst in decades. Minneapolis police were overrun on Friday as neighborhoods and a police precinct burned. Los Angeles police were assaulted and their vehicles vandalized and burned. In Milwaukee a 38-year-old police officer was shot and 16 buildings were looted. In Dallas a shopowner trying to defend his property with a machete was stoned, beaten and left bleeding in the street.

Americans watching on TV saw reporters grabbed and pushed by protesters who flashed obscene gestures for the cameras. Police were pelted with rocks and bottles amid “Defund the Police” signs. Mayors across the country set curfews, and in Minneapolis and elsewhere the National Guard was called in.

This was more than spontaneous anger at the grotesque video of a white cop, Derek Chauvin, kneeling on the neck of the African-American Floyd for nearly nine minutes as he pleaded to breathe. Many protests were peaceful. But the riots in many places had the earmarks of planned chaos by those using Floyd as an excuse for criminality.

Gov. Tim Walz blamed agitators from outside Minnesota, including white supremacists and drug cartels, for feeding the violence, though he offered no evidence. Attorney General Bill Barr on Saturday blamed much of the trouble on “anarchistic and far left extremists, using Antifa-like tactics, many of whom travel from out of state to promote the violence.”

Antifa are loosely affiliated agitators who claim to be anti-fascists. They dress in black and cover their heads, often letting others man the front lines while directing assaults on police from a distance.

Amid this chaos, police in most cities have shown notable discipline. A police car drove into a crowd surrounding it in New York City, but even Mayor Bill de Blasio noted it would not have happened if protesters had not been threatening. The risk is that, as confrontations escalate, some police will lose their cool and someone will be killed, producing another cycle of protest and violence.

Contrast all of this with the progress of the justice system in the Floyd case. Officer Chauvin was charged Friday with third-degree murder and second-degree manslaughter. The Hennepin County district attorney brought charges in record time that he will have to prove beyond a reasonable doubt, and he says he may bring more charges, presumably against one or more of the three other officers involved in Floyd’s arrest.

In other words the judicial system is not the problem. It’s functioning well. Look to the executive and legislative branches for solutions. They have created problems they are failing to deal with. They conclude:

The main victims of a summer of chaos in America will be the poor and minority neighborhoods going up in flames.

Long after the thieves and vandals and the news channels have left the neighborhoods, like those on Chicago’s South and West Sides that are bearing the brunt of the violence and chaos, the burnt out stores and buildings will remain. Stop complaining about “food deserts” while grocery stores are being burnt to the ground. Stop complaining about a lack of jobs when businesses are driven away.

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Prioritization

I wish that Nikolas Kristof had included a deeper dive into the statistics in his New York Times column about the issue of COVID-19 among the Navajo:

CHINLE, Ariz. — The Navajo Nation is a vast, awe-inspiring land of desert crags and canyons, the largest reservation in the country, but today it reverberates with grief and fear.

The Navajo have had more people infected with the coronavirus per capita than any state in the country. Decades of neglect, exploitation and discrimination mean that even before this pandemic, Navajo here had a shorter life expectancy (72) than people in Guatemala (74) — and now Covid-19 is hitting Native Americans with particular force.

If Native American tribes were counted as states, the five most infected states in the country would all be native tribes, with New York dropping to No. 6, according to a compilation by the American Indian Studies Center at U.C.L.A.

because according to the figures I came up with in a quick crosscheck with the Navajo nation itself, it isn’t true. The number of cases is high but the mortality due to COVID-19 is lower than many other states, particularly New York and New Jersey which, whatever else may be printed, remain the locus of most infections.

I agree with his broader point. I think our priorities are screwed up. I think a lot more attention should be devoted to the problems of the rural poor, particularly rural blacks, and people living on Indian reservations. They are the poorest of the poor in this country—poor by global standards not just relative to their richer urban fellow citizens. An outrage.

I suspect the urban poor will continue to receive a lot more attention both because that’s where the votes are and for the same reason a drunk searches for his car keys under a lamppost.

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The Best Intentions

I think that the intentions of psychologist Pamela Paresky and sociologist Bradley Campbell as expressed in their New York Times op-ed are good. Here’s their conclusion:

Solving the complex problems of the pandemic cannot be accomplished without considering ideological opponents’ views. We just don’t know how long lockdowns can serve as a life-saving, medically induced coma, and at what point they become lethal. Partisans need to replace “us versus them” thinking with the intellectual humility necessary to get the best thinking from political opponents.

Blame and recrimination are certainly common responses in pandemics. But they’re also counterproductive. Those who fall on the safetyism side of the spectrum are not fascists, and those who fall on the anti-saftetyism side are not human sacrificers.

If politicians would reject the tribalism of partisanship and do the hard job of listening — with open-mindedness and curiosity — to those with whom they disagree, we’d stand a much better chance of protecting both lives and livelihoods from not only the effects of the pandemic, but the effects of our responses to it.

What they don’t seem to recognize is that there’s good money to be made from demonizing your political opponents. Not to mention the power. You’ll never get rid of the “tribalism of partisanship” without changing the incentives.

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