In his column in the New York Times Neil Irwin raises an interesting question: how can the unemployment rate be so high while employers are unable to find people to hire?
There are two distinct, and completely opposite, ways of looking at the American job market.
One would be to consult the data tables produced every month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which suggest a plentiful supply of would-be workers. The unemployment rate is 6 percent, representing 9.7 million Americans who say they are actively looking for work.
Alternately, you could search for news articles mentioning “labor shortage.†You will find dozens in which businesses, especially in the restaurant and other service industries, say they face a potentially catastrophic inability to hire. The anecdotes come from the biggest metropolitan areas and from small towns, as well as from tourist destinations of all varieties.
The explanations he explores are:
- Benefits are too generous
- People are worried about getting sick
- They’re still needed at home
- They’re not being offered enough money
- They’re reconsidering earlier career decisions
I suspect that all of those are true to some extent but I’d like to offer another he doesn’t mention. It’s something I’ve been aware of for 50 years. The jobs that employers advertise don’t always exist. There are many reasons for that including they’re reality checking their present pay scales, they’re testing the pool of hirees to see who’s out there, or they’re trying to make a case for hiring an H1-B worker. In tech jobs it’s not uncommon to list jobs with ridiculously specific lists of requirements. One of the most notorious was the ad in 1983 for an experienced IBM PC programmer.
I’m not sure how you’d go about testing my explanation empirically.
Update
Here are some more explanations. Two career families make it hard to relocate for jobs. And members of racial and ethnic minorities may be less predisposed to relocate for work. It means leaving their support systems behind and they may not be able to re-establish them in the new location.






