Harrison Schramm’s latest post at RealClearDefense certainly provides some food for thought. What if we take Chinese President Xi at his word?

Leaders of both China and the United States[i] have opined about the possibility of a Cross (Taiwan) Strait invasion in early 2027. While there are historical examples of countries having deadlines internally (famously, Hitler’s four year plan for Germany[ii]), having both sides of a potential conflict agree – at least in rhetoric – when the war should start is novel.

In this piece, we explore what happens when we take both President Xi and his prospective opponents at their word; that a cross-straits invasion of Taiwan will begin approximately 750 days from press time; Friday, 1 January 2027. Specifically, we would like to explore two issues:

1. If we really believe this war is upon us on this timescale, what should we do, and what are the risks of being wrong?
2. If China really believes that, what would they do that we could observe to know they are serious? What would be the risks to believing them?

As should be clear I think we should take the words of leaders like Xi Jinping at face value. What if?

Let’s just put it in a single sentence. The United States is not prepared for a war with China militarily, economically, or morally.

I found this post by April Rubin at Axios on the sectors that would be most affected by a crackdown on illegal immigration interesting. The graph at the top of the post was sampled from her post. Here’s a snippet:

President-elect Trump’s vow to deport millions of undocumented immigrants could eliminate workers from U.S. industries already projected to face shortages and cut up to 6.8% of the national gross domestic profit.

The big picture: While undocumented laborers make up a relatively small percentage of the total U.S. workforce, they have outsized roles in fields like construction, agriculture and hospitality.

Zoom in: Construction and agriculture workforces had the highest shares of undocumented workers as of 2022, per the American Immigration Council.

There’s also a hat tip to the common trope, “jobs Americans won’t do”. Ignored is that Americans did do those jobs until the workers began to organize and were replaced, largely by undocumented migrant workers. Undocumented migrant workers tend not to complain about low pay or lousy conditions and if they do you can just turn them in and get others. Furthermore you don’t pay for social insurance or healthcare for them. That adds up to considerable savings.

I found this interesting. Gallup has found that 52% of Ukrainians want the country’s war with Russia to end as quickly as possible including making territorial concessions to do so.

That sounds to me like the Biden Administration is moving in a different direction than the Ukrainians themselves.

Even more interesting is that the Ukrainians see the European Union as a better interlocutor in negotiations with Russia than the United States.

I was a bit surprised to see a piece from former Illinois Congressman Dan Lipinski at RealClearPolitics:

Here we go again. Voters have elected Donald Trump president while giving Republicans majorities in the House and Senate. And once again, Democrats are asking themselves, “What do we do now?” When this occurred eight years ago, I was a Democrat serving in the House of Representatives. At that time, some of my colleagues who had seen many traditional Democrats in their district vote for Trump spoke out. They said that working-class voters were tired of feeling looked down upon by Democrats because of policies they supported, what they believed, or even who they were. So when Hillary Clinton was caught claiming that half of Trump’s supporters were a “basket of deplorables: racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic,” she was seen to be confirming this, helping to doom her campaign.

But instead of changing course, Democrats doubled down by embracing a more ardent progressivism and demanding that everyone follow. Primary challenges by progressives rose dramatically. My experience was emblematic. Working-class voters were my base because I focused on bread-and-butter issues critical to struggling families, and I was not supportive of progressive social issues. After surviving in 2018, I lost in 2020 to a progressive challenger bankrolled by millions from national groups. At the same time, candidates for the Democratic nomination for president in 2020 were stumbling over each other, trying to get further to the left on a variety of issues. Decriminalizing illegal border crossings, funding sex-change operations for prisoners and detained illegal immigrants, and defunding the police became party dogma, further alienating the working class.

concluding:

As Democrats try to figure out what to do next, it is folly to believe that all the party needs is “clarity of message,” as former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (CA) recently claimed. And while it is good to propose new policies directed at helping those left behind economically, as Rep. Ro Khanna (CA) did, it won’t solve the political problem. But buried in that post-election piece by Khanna was one sentence that gets much closer to what Democrats must do: “For our economic message to be heard, we must show common sense on issues of crime and the safety of families and not shame or cancel those who may have honest disagreements with us on a particular social issue.” Rep. Seth Moulton (MA) expressed a similar sentiment when he said, “We lost, in part, because we shame and belittle too many opinions held by too many voters, and that needs to stop.”

While these are hopeful signs, Democrats must do more than pay lip service to change. After all, a few years ago, Khanna – who is now positioning for a presidential run – was publicly urging our Democratic House colleagues to cancel me from Congress because of honest issue disagreements. And last week, when Moulton dared to give a specific example of not wanting his daughters “getting run over on a playing field by a male or formerly male athlete,” he was lambasted by multiple Democratic officials, including his state’s governor and one of his congressional colleagues. Nowhere did I see any Democrat have the courage to support Moulton’s commonsense concern or even defend him for being willing to raise an issue with significant public resonance.

Voters are not fools, especially working-class voters who continue to feel that the country is going in the wrong direction and that they always get the short end of the stick. They may not watch day-to-day politics closely, but they understand who and what the Democratic Party now seems to really value. Only time will tell if the party has finally learned a lesson.

When the response to the complaint that Democrats have abandoned the working class is “there has never been as pro-union a president as Biden”, it illustrates the problem and the likelihood that the Democrats will double-down on their present course rather than changing course to resume a position as the party of the working class. 6% of private sector workers are unionized. To be pro-union is to be oriented towards government workers rather than to be pro-working class.

I was surprised by Rotem Sella’s Wall Street Journal op-ed, “Israel Is a U.S. Ally, Not a Client”. I actually agreed with his conclusion:

The perception of Israel as a client state is outdated. In the 1970s U.S. aid accounted for about 10% of Israel’s gross domestic product. In 2023 it accounted for 0.76%. In 1979 Israel’s GDP per capita was half of France’s. Today, Israel’s is larger. Mr. Netanyahu’s market reform and an ascendant tech industry have transformed Israel into an independent regional power.

Relations between the U.S. and Israel need an update. The first step is to stop regular U.S. military aid to Israel. American taxpayers shouldn’t subsidize a prosperous country or send help outside of emergencies. That money should go to U.S.-Israeli co-investment in military technology. The two countries can split the bill on mutually beneficial projects. This is similar to how the Iron Dome was developed, and its technology has benefited both countries.

Since the Oct. 7 attack, about 800 Israeli soldiers have been killed in a war to secure our country. Israelis don’t expect American soldiers to risk their lives for our sovereignty. This should be another pillar of our security relations.

I agree with all of that although I will admit to healthy skepticism about this: “Many Americans seem to believe we hope the U.S. will fight our battles for us. That isn’t the case.” It’s unclear to me how Israel will fight Iran, particularly an Iran supported by Russia and China.

I don’t believe that Israel is a U. S. ally. I think our interests are too far apart. How interested are we, really, in a “greater Israel”? The largest party in the present ruling coalition, Likud, believes in Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank and settlement of it. The second largest party, Yesh Atid, believes in a halt to settlements in the West Bank. The third largest party, Religious Zionist, is even more extreme in its support for settlements than Likud. What is the U. S. position? The Biden Administration’s position appears to be that West Bank Israeli settlements are illegal under international law. What is Trump’s position?

Yesterday I listened to the morning “talking heads” programs on network television as usual. Something that struck me was that it was clear that the various representatives of the major media outlets had no idea how much credibility they had lost or why.

Example: on CBS Sunday Morning Tracy Smith conducted a highly reverential interview of Bill Clinton (presumably to promote his new book). 20 minutes later on Face the Nation Margaret Brennan went after Republican members of Congress hammer and tongs on whether, given the sexual crimes and improprieties of which he has been accused, they would support Attorney General nominee Matt Gaetz. As I see it there are three alternatives:

• An accusation or an investigation is not the same as a conviction and that is equally true for Bill Clinton and Matt Gaetz
• Accusations are enough. Bill Clinton should have been taken to task for his sexual history
• The attacks on Matt Gaetz in the media are simply partisan politics as usual

IMO it is clear that the media have been successful in convincing a lot of Americans that the last was the case and everything they say should be taken with more than a grain of salt. We’ve come a long way since Walter Cronkite. “That’s the way it is” and “in seeking truth you have to get both sides of he story”.

Friday was my mom’s birthday but I neglected to post. My reason may have been strangely appropriate—I was having a tooth extract and the preparation for a new implant done. Appropriate because by the time she was far younger than I am now my mom had had all of her teeth extracted. The experience was probably one of the most excruciatingly painful of my life and that includes nearly losing my arm in an auto accident. For the last two days I’ve been pretty out of it. Now for good or ill I’m pretty much back to normal.

We’re not sure which birthday this birthday of my mom’s was since, as I’ve mentioned before, my mom had three birth certificates: one for 1921, one for 1922, and one for 1923. We don’t know which if any was correct.

I continue to miss my mom. She was one of my best friends, the only friend other than my wife on whom I could rely without reservation. She was a woman of extraordinary courage, wisdom, and prudence. She began life with nothing other than the love of her parents whose love did not extend to providing stability of security for. With that background she was determined to provide that security and stability for her own children and with my father, a man who also longed for the stability and security he had never had as a child, she succeeded in creating a loving, stable, and secure home for her children.

I have no opinion of the individuals that President-Elect Donald Trump has nominated for his cabinet. In general I believe that, barring some severe impediment, presidents deserve to have their cabinet appointments confirmed for good or ill. There’s plenty of room for criticism but to my eye the criticism of those he’s picked reflects chagrin the Mr. Trump was elected at all more than it does on the individuals nominated (with the possible exception of Matt Gaetz). Recognizing that Trump’s cabinet only reflects those who have been nominated rather than the final list, I wanted to point out some things.

Much of the comment has centered around how Mr. Trump’s nominees are loyalists. Like it or not there is nothing unusual in that. It has been true of nearly every president, especially in the last 30 years. What leaps out at me are:

1. There are no members of the Silent Generation among Mr. Trump’s nominees. I believe that is the first time that has been the case (Wilbur Ross/Commerce was Silent Generation in Trump’s first cabinet) since Reagan’s first term.
2. How many people over 70 there are in Joe Biden’s cabinet. There’s a big difference between a Baby Boomer born in 1946 (Yellen) and one born in 1964 (Harris).
3. There are Millennials among the nominees for the first time.

If Trump’s nominees are confirmed, this cabinet will mark a real changing of the guard from Silent Generation and Baby Boomers to Generation X and Millennials.

Who’s the leader of the Democratic Party at this point? The Silent Generation leadership that have guided them for the last decade or so are really too old. Barack Obama?