This Moment

I found David Brooks’s most recent New York Times column, ruminating on this moment in American racial relations, aligned very closely with my own views in many ways although I would have phrased it differently:

One question lingers amid all the debates about critical race theory: How racist is this land? Anybody with eyes to see and ears to hear knows about the oppression of the Native Americans, about slavery and Jim Crow. But does that mean that America is even now a white supremacist nation, that whiteness is a cancer that leads to oppression for other groups? Or is racism mostly a part of America’s past, something we’ve largely overcome?

There are many ways to answer these questions. The most important is by having honest conversations with the people directly affected. But another is by asking: How high are the barriers to opportunity for different groups? Do different groups have a fair shot at the American dream? This approach isn’t perfect, but at least it points us to empirical data rather than just theory and supposition.

I think there’s another question to be considered: what can or cannot be mitigated? I believe that racism presently exists; I also believe that past slavery, prejudice, Jim Crow laws, etc. continue to have effects right down to the present day. What I think is missing from Mr. Brooks’s reckoning is black agency.

I’m glad he mentions a study I’ve mentioned in the past:

Research shows the role racism plays in perpetuating these disparities. When, in 2004, researchers sent equally qualified white and Black applicants to job interviews in New York City, dressed them similarly and gave them similar things to say, Black applicants got half as many callbacks or job offers as whites.

which I interpret as demonstrating that racism is not completely in the past. But he and I are not in complete agreement about this:

When you look at the data about African Americans, the legacies of slavery and segregation and the effects of racism are everywhere. The phrase “systemic racism” aptly fits the reality you see — a set of structures, like redlining, that have a devastating effect on Black wealth and opportunities. Racism is not something we are gently moving past; it’s pervasive. It seems obvious that this reality should be taught in every school.

I agree with the first sentence, disagree with the first clause of the second and have reservations about its second clause. I don’t agree that “systemic racism” fits the reality because I see more than one system involved and they must be disaggregated. And he never defines what he means by “redlining”. IMO redlining is an overused term. When insurance premiums are greater for higher risks than for lower ones, that’s not redlining—it’s insurance. When businesses don’t open in neighborhoods where they cannot be profitable that is not redlining, either. Redlining is when black real estate shoppers are directed to black neighborhoods because they’re black. Consequently, I don’t know whether I agree with the third sentence or not because I don’t know what “this reality” is. I agree that racism exists, is not a thing of the past, and is wrong. I don’t agree that everything that is called “racism” is racism and I don’t agree that children should be taught in schools that the only way to end racism is for the behavior of white people to change because I think the behaviors of both white and black people need to change.

And I believe that’s what Mr. Brooks’s next passage suggests:

Does this mean that America is white supremacist, a shameful nation, that the American dream is just white privilege? Well, let’s take a look at the data for different immigrant groups. When you turn your gaze here, the barriers don’t seem as high. For example, as Bloomberg’s Noah Smith pointed out recently on his Substack page, Hispanic American incomes rose faster in recent years than those of any other major group in America. Forty-five percent of Hispanics who grew up in poverty made it to the middle class or higher, comparable to the mobility rate for whites.

Hispanics have lately made astounding gains in education. In 2000, more than 30 percent of Hispanics dropped out of high school. By 2016, only 10 percent did. In 1999, a third of Hispanics age 18 to 24 were in college; now, nearly half are. Hispanic college enrollment rates surpassed white enrollment rates in 2012.

The Hispanic experience in America is beginning to look similar to the experience of Irish Americans or Italian Americans or other past immigrant groups — a period of struggle followed by integration into the middle class.

If you accept and learn Standard American English; if you work hard in school, you and your children can prosper. If you don’t follow those steps and, indeed, are subjected to social pressure for “acting white”, you won’t.

And this is what I have been saying for decades:

The researchers Richard Alba, Morris Levy and Dowell Myers suggest 52 percent of the people who self-categorize as nonwhite in the Census Bureau’s projections for America’s 2060 racial makeup will also think of themselves as white. Forty percent of those who self-categorized as white will also claim minority racial identity.

In an essay for The Atlantic, they conclude: “Speculating about whether America will have a white majority by the mid-21st century makes little sense, because the social meanings of white and nonwhite are rapidly shifting. The sharp distinction between these categories will apply to many fewer Americans.”

Here’s the one specific policy prescription offered by Mr. Brooks:

Over the last several years Raj Chetty and his team at Opportunity Insights have done much of the most celebrated work on income mobility. They find that, indeed, Black Americans and Native Americans have much lower rates of mobility because of historic discrimination.

But Chetty’s team emphasizes that these gaps are not immutable. If, for example, you use housing vouchers and other grants to help people move to high-opportunity neighborhoods with low poverty rates, low racial bias and more fathers in the neighborhoods, then you can help people of all races lead lives with higher incomes and lower rates of incarceration as adults.

It’s an interesting idea but there is an assumption built into that statement: that the individual will leave the old neighborhood behind. If the sort of “systemic racism” that is being complained about mostly just means that blacks are a minority in the U. S., that is unlikely to change. Neighborhoods have more fathers and lower incarceration rates in them because of behavior not because of something about the zip code.

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Double, Double

The most notable quote from this interview with Jeremy Grantham at Reuters is this one:

Bubbles are unbelievably easy to see; it’s knowing when the bust will come that is trickier.

There aren’t any elevator operators these days so that strategy for deciding when to get out is shot. His bottom line is this:

But this bubble is the real thing, and everyone can see it. It’s as obvious as the nose on your face.

If he’s right it may not be a particularly merry Christmas.

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Who Cares What the Belarusians Think?

Well, I dug around for a recent poll of popular opinion in Belarus and came up with this (PDF). If you don’t feel like reading it, it doesn’t provide a great deal of support for the WaPo’s view.

Among the finds were that

  • opinion is sharply divided on Lukashenka
  • a lot of Belarusians think he’s a crook
  • Russia is pretty popular among Belarusians
  • Heck, China is more popular among Belarusians than either the EU or us
  • Only a minority of Belarusians support the demonstrations

The conclusion that I would draw is that if the Europeans want to impose sharp sanctions on Belarus, Russia, or both, that’s up to them. Our best posture is dignified silence. As usual I think we should be the well-wisher of the freedom and independence for everyone but the vindicator only of our own.

Maybe you’re skeptical of any poll of Belarusian opinion. I would welcome evidence that contradicts any of the above. Angry protesters don’t necessarily tell you what the majority of Belarusians think.

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Bucky Pizzarelli, 1926-2020

Somehow this one escaped my notice. Bucky Pizzarelli, one of the all-time great jazz guitarists, died last year from complications of COVID-19, at the age of 94. Ruth, his wife of 66 years, died a week later. Must have been tough on their son, John, also a great jazz guitarist.

He could really swing.

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Where Do People Get These Ideas?

Maybe it’s because I’m from a border state. I learned a lot about racism and the Civil War in school—I grew up within walking distance of Civil War battlefields. Maybe it’s because of my family. My family was anti-slavery—my great–great-grandfather Wagner fought in the Civil War from its start to its end. He had met Lincoln when Lincoln was campaigning for Congress in his home town. In my family racism was about the worst sin you could commit. We travelled in the pre-civil rights South. I found it horrifying. My mom spent a good deal of her career teaching poor black kids to read and when my dad died he was defending a young black man pro bono.

I have also lived and worked in Germany.

Michele L. Norris writes in the Washington Post:

In today’s Germany, children learn through their teachers and textbooks that the Nazi reign was a horrible and shameful chapter in the nation’s past. Cadets training to become police officers in Berlin take 2½ years of training that includes Holocaust history and a field trip to the Sachsenhausen concentration camp.

Maybe that’s what she’s heard but I don’t believe it’s true. 2/3s of Germans don’t have formal education beyond the 10th grade other than vocational training and the sort of education she’s talking about is almost entirely in secondary and even tertiary education. She should watch Das schreckliche Mädchen (“The Nasty Girl”). That rings true to me. Many Germans think that the reports of what the Germans did during the war are lies.

German schoolchildren still routinely use anti-Semitic phrases in their schoolyard taunts much as American kids used to a couple of generations ago. “You look like a Jew”. “You walk like a Jew”. Do kids still talk like that here? I haven’t heard that sort of thing in decades other than black kids addressing each other with the “N” word. Racism and anti-Semitism are strong in Germany and France. Believe it.

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Shrinking the Wealth Gap

The editors of the Washington Post endorse a steep tax on capital gains and then continue with this:

Shrinking the wealth gap calls for a two-pronged attack: offer more opportunity to those at the bottom and trim the undue advantages of those at the top. In this editorial, we address the latter issue by discussing how best to tax the rich. The smartest approach is the one endorsed in 2018 by economists at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD): significant, broad-based taxes on capital gains, coupled with similarly efficient levies on transfers of wealth through gifts and inheritance. As the OECD report concluded, this promises the greatest increase in equity with the fewest costly side effects.

The distinction between a wealth tax and a high tax on capital gains is that a wealth tax makes it tough to stay rich while the capital gains tax makes it harder to become rich.

I would venture a guess that after ten years of both a tax on capital gains and a wealth tax the “wealth gap” would be even greater than when you started. It’s a matter of simple mathematic, i.e. don’t raise the bridge lower the river. Reduce the number of people in the U. S. with entry level skills or a command of English insufficient to get a job beyond one that pays minimum wage or lower. Focusing on the rich may make for good sound bites but I doubt it will accomplish as much as its proponents think including raising revenue or reducing the “wealth gap”.

It also depends on which wealth gap you’re trying to shrink: that between the top 1% of income earners and the top .01% of income earners or the gap between the top 10% and the bottom 90%. Sounds like they’re focused on the former.

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Drawing Connections Where There Are No Connections

Thomas Edsall’s latest New York Times offering, “We Are Leaving ‘Lost Einsteins’ Behind”, was pretty much what I expected it to be but I thought he raised some interesting points nonetheless. Let’s start with the title: what does he mean by “Einsteins”? Colloquially, it generally means a person with a high IQ. Let’s consider that for a moment.

As far as we can tell Einstein never took an IQ test but it’s estimated to have been four standard deviations above normal or more. .37%, a little more than a third of one percent, of the U. S. population might have IQs that high assuming normal distribution. That’s not a particularly good assumption as it turns out but it will do as a first order approximation. That means that there are a few more than 1 million people with IQs that high in the U. S. So, yes, there could be hundreds of thousands of undiscovered high IQ individuals in the U. S.

Does it matter? I think the answer is not very much. It helps a lot to have higher than median intelligence. It opens a lot of gates—it’s very difficult to become a medical doctor, for example, unless your IQ is more than one standard deviation above normal. But not all geniuses are successful and there is a positive correlation between a number of mental disorders including depression and very high intelligence.

Additionally, IQ tests only test a narrow band of skills and there are other skills, e.g. social-emotional development, which have been found to be more important than a high score on an IQ test.

As it turns out that’s what Mr. Edsall is pointing out but he focuses on another very narrow measure:

“Current talent search procedures focus on the assessment of mathematical and verbal ability,” wrote David Lubinski of Vanderbilt and Harrison J. Kell, a senior researcher at the Educational Testing Service, in “Spatial Ability: A Neglected Talent in Educational and Occupational Settings.” Lubinski and Kell stress the failure of many of such searches to test for the cognitive skill known as spatial ability.

What’s “spatial ability”? It’s the capacity “for mentally generating, rotating, and transforming visual images”. I know of no evidence that Mark Zuckerberg or Bill Gates excelled in that particular area but there is considerable evidence that they do have high IQs as measured by IQ tests. Today seven of the ten largest STEM areas are computer-related. I have rarely observed notable spatial ability among people in information technology other than in the rather narrow area of computer graphics. Quite the opposite in fact.

I think Mr. Edsall is cherrypicking. However, let’s assume that he’s correct and that we’re allowing a substantial source of ability to go to waste (also cf. here). The areas of engineering in which spatial ability would be most useful, e.g. mechanical engineering and civil engineering, have seen sharp declines in the native-born population over the last couple of decades. Why? The explanations are pretty simple: wages in those areas peaked a long time ago, demand for mechanical and civil engineers has not been increasing, and we can import as many as we might want from India which will ensure that wages don’t increase. Additionally, the steep decline of U. S. manufacturing employment which followed China’s gaining most favored nation trading status greatly reduced the need for people with spatial ability.

All of which point to the solution to the problem: resume making more of what we consume here and stop importing engineers from abroad. I suspect that was not Mr. Edsall’s point but it’s the direction in which the incentives point.

Before someone mentions it first, median IQ in China is higher than median IQ here. There are more people in China with IQs one standard deviation above normal than there are people here.

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How Do You Count?

This post at NPR’s Goats and Soda, on COVID-19 mortality in India, raises a point worth considering:

How many people have died of COVID-19 since the pandemic began?

The official global total as of this week: 4.1 million.

But everyone agrees the true toll is far greater. A study released on Tuesday looks at how much of a disparity there may be in India, one of the epicenters of the pandemic.

The analysis, from the Center for Global Development, a think tank in Washington, D.C., looks at the number of “excess deaths” that occurred in India between January 2020 and June 2021 – in other words, how many more people died during that period than during a similar period of time in 2019 or other recent years.

Drawing death data from civil registries and other sources, the report came up with three estimates for undercounts. The conclusion is that between 3.4 and 4.7 million more people died in that pandemic period than would have been predicted. That’s up to 10 times higher than the Indian government’s official death toll of 414,482.

Shorter: the mortality from COVID-19 in India alone may be greater than the presently reported global mortality. But that in turn raises a host of questions. While excess deaths represents a reasonable first order approximation it’s far from accurate. Do you include people who died as a consequence of bad policy or poorly implemented policy? Who counts? How do you count?

Right now there is no uniform generally-accepted method of tallying the number of deaths due to COVID-19 not just globally but in the United States itself. The method of counting varies from state to state.

And while I’m on the subject I’ll complain about something I’ve been whinging about for more than a year: there has been no systematic nationwide epidemiological testing for COVID-19. We don’t really know whether 5% of the population has contracted the disease of 50%. I honestly don’t know how you can formulate reasonable policy with at least making an attempt at getting better information.

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Repeal the NIDH!

I’m broadly in favor this policy, described at Politico by Sam Mintz:

The bill, H.R. 3684 (117), would erect new bureaucratic hurdles for states seeking to spend federal money on laying asphalt, while steering them to more climate-friendly options like transit. It also would give cities more power over selecting and funding transportation projects — boosting the leverage of Democratic-led enclaves in red states such as Texas, where Houston is engaged in a high-profile fight with the state’s DOT over a highway expansion local pols don’t want.

The bill is, for now, is separate from a compromise infrastructure bill backed by the Biden administration and key GOP senators, which would provide $579 billion in new spending, as well as a $3.5 trillion go-it-alone proposal that Democrats hope to approve by party-line votes. These chess pieces are separate for now, but portions of all three could end up blended together into whatever Congress ends up enacting.

The structure of the empowering legislation for the Interstate Highway System encourages building new roads. Constructing new roads is largely free to the states while the cost of maintaining them falls squarely on the states’ treasuries. Does anyone else see the roots of our present situation there?

I think that state and local officials are much better positioned to identify state and local needs than federal officials and my observation is that people are willing to pay for things that they genuinely want and need.

At this point every city in the U. S. of any substantial size is already served by an interstate. Under the circumstances does it actually make sense to build more? Said another way how much sense does it make to tax people in Racine to pay for commuter highways in Los Angeles?

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What Should Our Posture With Respect to Belarus Be?

I had gravely mixed reactions to this Washington Post editorial in which the editors recommend that President Biden adopt a more active posture with respect to Belarus:

To start, the Biden administration ought to match or exceed the European Union’s most recent round of sanctions on Mr. Lukashenko’s henchmen. Mr. Lukashenko’s rule is buttressed by a network of moneybags who regularly peel off profits from state enterprises and resources, redirecting cash to the dictator and his security services, allowing them to go on tormenting Belarus citizens. These regime oligarchs — such as Alexander Zaitsev, Alexei Oleksin, Nikolay Vorobey, Alexander Mashensky, Alexander Zingman and Mikhail Gutseriev — provide the fuel that keeps Mr. Lukashenko in power. The United States ought to follow Brussels in seeking to isolate them and empty the regime’s cash registers — no loopholes, no looking the other way.

The United States also can extend a hand to the beleaguered folks inside Belarus. Lately, Mr. Lukashenko’s thugs have been seizing activists to extract contacts from their phones, then arresting everyone on the list. The activists need Internet circumvention techniques, financial support through cryptocurrency, and replacement of the equipment the regime has confiscated.

Depending on your operative definition of “democracy”, I support more democracy everywhere including the United States. My operative definition includes not just voting but participation and defense of civil liberties.

On the other hand I think most Americans including most American politicians have little actual knowledge of Belarus. It’s not really a country; it’s an ethnicity. The territory of the present Belarus was part of Russia then the Soviet Union since the 18th century. Before that it was part of the Polish-Lithuanian Empire. It has no natural borders. Just squiggly lines on a map. I don’t know how to disaggregate support for Belarus from antagonism towards Russia.

Russia’s interests in Belarus will inevitably be greater than ours and particularly the interests of the present irredentist Russia. I don’t think that aggravating Russia for S&G is a particularly great idea.

I have no idea of just how popular the anti-Lukashenko movement in Belarus actually is and I doubt the editors do, either.

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