Although I materially agree with the observations in Matt Bai’s most recent Washington Post column, I don’t think he fully apprehends their implications. He states his thesis pretty clearly in his opening sentences:
Democrats, who nominally control Washington, are about to face a reckoning on covid-19.
At some point soon, they’re going to have to start treating the coronavirus not as the uncontrollable public health crisis it used to be, but as the public policy crisis it has now become.
After the obligatory sideswipe at Donald Trump he continues by dividing the American public into three groups:
The largest group is the fully vaccinated. For most of us, the new variant is a serious nuisance, like an especially virile flu, but not much more than that. It’s unpleasant (I know, because I have it), but if this were the version of covid that hit everyone who got infected in 2020, no school or business would have closed.
The second group is the immune-compromised, even if they are vaccinated — including people with underlying conditions and the elderly. The risk to them remains high, and the extra care they have to take can be isolating. But that’s the case with every contagion, including the flu. We don’t reorder the society around it.
The third group is, of course, the unvaccinated. (I’m not including children under 5, who are still not eligible for a coronavirus vaccine.) They’ve now had a year to absorb all the warnings and weigh all the arguments. They’ve seen high-profile vaccine deniers — talk show hosts, Trumpian candidates — needlessly dying from a virus they chose to exploit.
At this point, the unvaccinated are like unrepentant smokers. We’ve spent decades telling them they might get lung cancer. We’ve plastered warnings everywhere.
But you know what? All of us get to make our own idiotic choices — that’s the American way.
which brings to mind Robert Benchley’s observation about people who divide other people into groups. And it’s where I think Mr. Bai hasn’t thought things through. The definition of the first group is, shall we say, emergent. Yesterday it was people who’d received two doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine; today it’s people who’ve also received a booster. Tomorrow? Who knows?
The second group is equally fluid. How does one distinguish between the first and second groups? Presumably, if you’ve been fully inoculated and you still contract COVID-19, are you in that second group? Is there a real empirical distinction between the two? I don’t think so.
His remarks about the unvaccinated are equally problematic. People who smoke don’t provide as great a risk to those who don’t as people who are not inoculated against COVID-19 pose. Consider President Biden’s recent remarks:
All these people who have not been vaccinated, you have an obligation to yourselves, to your family, and, quite frankly — I know I’ll get criticized for this — to your country.
Get vaccinated now. It’s free. It’s convenient. I promise you, it saves lives. And I, honest to God, believe it’s your patriotic duty.
Does that sound like an acknowledgement that people have a right to make their “own idiotic choices” to you? Me, neither. Is that position reconcilable with mandates? How?
The reality is that those who are unwilling to accept a heightened level of risk, regardless of cost-benefit, will not be persuaded. That’s playing out right now in the work stoppage being carried on by Chicago’s teachers.
Mr. Bai goes on to make a valuable observation:
Sure, you can argue that the virus still overwhelms hospitals and is costing us a ton of money. But that’s a capacity problem, not an existential crisis. You don’t solve technical shortages by shuttering schools and keeping nurses at home with draconian quarantine policies.
There are a couple of things we need to come to terms with. Failing to expand capacity permanently is predicated on the assumption of “Zero COVID” and that assumption is decreasingly supportable. Reasonable people may have different views of that but I think it reflects a basic problem with our whole healthcare system.
After that lengthy exposition he finally gets to the point:
If Biden is going to beat the pandemic rather than be undone by it, he is going to have to acknowledge the new reality, which is that our public policy is way too weighted toward a bunch of people who made the wrong choice.
Biden said as much in remarks at the White House Tuesday, addressing his comments to the unvaccinated. That’s fine.
But it’s his own Democratic constituencies — teachers unions, local governments, ultra-leftist Trump haters who refuse to let go of the culture war over the virus — who would continue to hold the country hostage to what now is a manageable public health risk. In Montgomery County, a group of parents and teachers who want to close the schools issued a call this week for children to stay home in protest.
Biden needs to take these people on and steer his party toward a more sensible course.
There is an old phrase used to characterize such advice: whistling past a graveyard. President Biden can’t “take these people on”. Not only has he failed to do so throughout his lengthy political career, he depends on them.
There’s another reality that we’ll need to come to terms with soon. As the number of “fully vaccinated” people (whatever that means at the time) rises as it undoubtedly will the percentage of “fully vaccinated” people hospitalized for COVID-19 and who die of it will rise. That’s just mathematics. Look at any study, any infographic on those hospitalized with COVID-19 and those who died of it. The percentage of “fully vaccinated” in their number is non-zero. That mathematical fact alone will provide all of the ammunition those Democratic constituencies Mr. Bai calls out need to continue the “culture war” over the pandemic into the indefinite future.






