Today is Easter Sunday 2022 and spring has begun in earnest in Chicago not that you’d know it with temperatures in the 20s when I rose this morning. Forsythia, crocuses, hyacinths, jonquils, and other spring-blooming plants have all burst into flower at once. That’s once of the big differences between my natal city, St. Louis, and Chicago. In St. Louis forsythia flowers starting in late February, followed by crocuses, followed by jonquils and others. Spring-like weather began in March and continue right into June. Here in Chicago they all bloom at once, remain for a week or so, and that’s it. We expect more snow over the next few days and temperatures in the high 70s or 80s next weekend. If that’s the case it will be the first weekend in the 70s we’ve had this year.

The picture above was taken on Kara’s and my morning walk this morning. She showed some interest in the clump of jonquils I had decided to photograph.

May all of my readers have a happy, restful, and blessed Easter!

The table above is taken from a post by Ray Dalio at, of all places, LinkedIn which I encourage you to read. After characterizing the Russian-Ukraine War as the “first battle for control of the world order” he writes that we can assess who is winning by the answers to three questions:

1. How can we tell if Putin and Russia win or lose this battle?
2. How can we tell how powerful American-led sanctions are?
3. How can we tell how the sides are lining up?

The table is his preliminary answer to third question. I recommend reading the whole thing. Here’s a snippet worth reflecting on:

History has shown that when the causes people are behind are more important to them than the system (as they increasingly appear to be in the US), the system is in jeopardy. This risk to the internal system typically shows up in the form of growing populism of both the right and the left. Populists are not compromisers—they are win-at-all-cost people—so when they grow in power at the expense of the moderates who are inclined to compromise, the risks to the rule of law and the democratic system increase. By all measures these trends and the risks to the system have been increasing in the US and in some other countries.

I strongly suspect that’s how China’s President Xi sees things. Our system can be seen to be failing because of the obvious internal strife.

For my part I’m completely puzzled by what’s happening in the U. S. today. To my eye it appears that claiming victimhood appears to be the highest value. Historically, the way to rally Americans to a cause has been by appealing to “the better angels of our nature” rather than telling us that our nature was irredeemably damned.

In a piece at Project Syndicate John H. Cochrane declaims that the Russian-Ukraine War has marked the end of a number of “illusions”:

Coming after a year of high inflation, Russia’s war in Ukraine is forcing a reckoning for policymakers and commentators everywhere. New macroeconomic realities show that the days of mindless demand stimulus, guaranteed bailouts, and activist climate policies must now be put behind us.

Here is a partial list of the beliefs he pronounced ended:

• printed or borrowed money can be deployed at will to resolve any problem
• stimulus spending for its own stake
• bailouts
• the “secular stagnation” debate—whether declines in economic growth are due to inadequate demand or inadequate supply
• “counterproductive energy and climate policies”

concluding:

The era of wishful thinking is over. Those who come to grips with that fact now will look a lot less foolish in the future.

He’s wrong. The beliefs he declares ended are too seductive ever to be abandoned. False, discredit, or not they will resurge again and again and again. The implications of abandoning them are far too painful.

Add central planning. The belief that wise and benevolent planners can manage an economy more efficiently and more benignly than markets will never go away. That the very act of doing that obscures the price signals necessary for the efficiency its advocates envision can never be acknowledged. There is also no known way of ensuring that the planners remain sufficiently wise or benevolent. Plus it’s so good for the planners.

The editors of the Washington Post don’t believe the official Chinese statistics on COVID-19:

Judging by the numbers, China appears to be experiencing a far different pandemic than the rest of the world. In the latest surge in Shanghai, its largest city with a population of 25 million, China has reported more than 300,000 cases since early March and no deaths. By contrast, the world as a whole has experienced about 195 deaths for every 100,000 population as of last November. Can China’s statistics be believed?

The death toll is not the only anomaly. Throughout the world, at least 500 million people have been infected. According to estimates surveying millions of cases, about 40 percent of them — sometimes more, sometimes less — were asymptomatic, meaning they tested positive but without symptoms. And the rest had symptoms ranging from mild to serious, including hospitalization and death.

But the data reported from China shows a virus that is causing very little symptomatic or serious illness. In reports from Shanghai, cases are overwhelmingly asymptomatic. On April 10, for example, there were 25,173 new asymptomatic infections, compared to only 914 symptomatic ones, or about 3.6 percent. On April 13, China reported 25,146 asymptomatic cases and 2,573 symptomatic, or 10 percent. China’s population has been widely vaccinated, although the rate is low among the elderly.

So why so few symptomatic infections?

At present China’s official mortality rate is three per million population. If true, that would be 10% of Taiwan’s, 2% of South Korea’s, 1% of Japan’s, and .1% that of the United States. Is it possible that the draconian measures put in place were effective and China’s official statistics are correct? Yes, it is, but I think it’s unlikely. I doubt that officials in Beijing actually know the truth for a reason commonplace in China: local officials are reluctant to give bad news. Nonetheless it remains possible.

A century or two centuries from now historians will dig through old records trying to understand what happened during the COVID-19 pandemic of the 2020s just as today’s historians dig through old records to understand the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918. Maybe they’ll figure out what actually happened but, frankly, I doubt it.

I’ve done lists of Biblical epics, science fiction, horror, musicals, romances, and others but I don’t believe I have ever posted a list of better religious movies. As we prepare to be inundated by a wave of Biblical epics over Easter weekend, I thought I might post a list of movies with religious or spiritual themes that aren’t Biblical epics and IMO are worth watching. Here’s a few for consideration.

Going My Way (1944)

This movie won Academy Award for Best Picture, Best Director (Leo McCarey), and Best Actor (Bing Crosby). It was wildly popular when it came out.

Stars In My Crown (1950)

In this movie, directed by Jacques Tourneur and starring Joel McCrea, McCrae plays a preacher in a small Western town but a preacher unlike most you will have encountered. Themes include faith and skepticism and racism. Don’t miss the final scene.

I Confess (1953)

This picture, directed by Alfred Hitchcock (who was a Catholic), is essentially a lengthy dramatization of the seal of the confessional.

Friendly Persuasion (1956)

A Quaker family tries to hold onto its pacifist beliefs during the American Civil War.

The Hoodlum Priest (1961)

A dramatization of the life of Charles Clark also known as “Dismas” Clark, a Catholic priest who ministered to men in prison and those who had just been released from prison. Parts of it were shot in my high school.

Lilies of the Field (1963)

Sidney Poitier was award the Academy Award for Best Actor for his performance in this movie. One of the best things about this movie is that every single character in it is a better person at the end of the movie than they were at the beginning.

Andrei Rublev (1966)

This Soviet movie is a dramatization of the life of the title character, a painter of religious icons. It’s widely considered one of the greatest movies ever made.

Fiddler on the Roof (1971)

Judaism is central to this adaptation of the Broadway musical.

Malcolm X (1992)

Denzel Washington received the Academy Award for Best Actor for his portrayal of the title character. In essence it is a story of conversion, masterfully portrayed.

The Way (2010)

In The Way Martin Sheen portrays a man who gains faith by fulfilling his deceased son’s pledge to complete the pilgimage, the Way of James.

Silence (2016)

This movie, directed by Martin Scorsese, is about Catholic missionaries in Japan in the 17th century.

This is just a sampling. There are many others that are worth watching. If you’re tired of Biblical epics.

At OilPrice.com Tsvetana Paraskova takes note of what appears to me to be an important development:

China’s refiners are expected to lower their refinery runs at the biggest scale—by 900,000 barrels per day (bpd)—since the beginning of the pandemic in 2020, as new COVID-related lockdowns weigh on fuel consumption, analysts and industry sources told Reuters on Thursday.

China’s demand, especially gasoline demand, has suffered in recent weeks as authorities continue with their “zero COVID” policy and lockdown large cities and areas to contain a surge in infections. Most recently, China locked down 26 million residents in the financial hub Shanghai, which hit demand as people are confined to their homes.

The return of severe lockdowns as China is battling its worst coronavirus outbreak in two years has prompted analysts to lower expectations of oil demand in the world’s top oil importer and, by extension, global oil demand for this quarter and the full year 2022.

Refiners in China are now set to reduce runs this month by nearly 1 million bpd, which would be equivalent to 6.3 percent of the average Chinese refinery production in recent months, according to Reuters calculations.

If it persists this development potentially has more serious implications both for Russia and the price of gas at the pump than any actions the U. S. has taken to date. Not to mention supply chains, many of which continue to run through China.

I found this consideration by Robert Farley at 1945 of the sinking of the Russian warship Moskva interesting:

Early reports indicate that the Russian cruiser Moskva, flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, has been severely damaged or possibly sunk (NOTE: most reports at present indicate it was seriously damaged at the time of this writing) after a fire and explosion. Ukrainian authorities announced yesterday that the ship had been struck by two Neptune anti-ship missiles, and Russian officials have confirmed that the ship suffered a fire and that the crew has been evacuated. One report indicated that the Moskva air defense system was distracted by a Ukrainian TB2 drone, facilitating the missile strike. According to this report, Moskva then rolled onto her side. If the loss of the ship is confirmed, she will be the largest warship destroyed in combat since the sinking of the Argentinian cruiser General Belgrano (the former USS Phoenix) in the Falklands War in 1982. However, the full details of the attack may not be known for several days.

I believe it has been confirmed that the ship sank as it was being towed for repairs after the damage done by the missile attack.

This is interesting for a number of reasons not the least its implications for the United States. IIRC multiple wargames of naval action in the Persian Gulf found U. S. ships vulnerable to attack by missiles carried by much smaller vessels. The combined use of drones and missiles is thought-provoking as well.

The U. S. Navy makes considerable use of very large craft. The new age of warfare presents considerable risks to such vessels which we’ll need to start addressing.

The picture at the top of this post illustrates a recently-issued Ukrainian stamp depicting the Moskva and a gesture of defiance.

As you may recall last year I changed jobs—left my employer of seven years for another. There aren’t too many men of my age still working let alone changing employers.

My former employer met my definition of a medium-sized company: $200 million annual revenues, 1,200 employees, half to two-third of them in India. Locations in four countries, four in the U. S.

Yesterday I got some surprising news. My former employer has ceased U. S. operations. I don’t know when it happened. Probably some time in the last six weeks. I was informed of it when I reached out to a former colleague.

The impetus for my departure was a mandatory pay cut, caused by the lockdowns. I had been there before early in my career and wasn’t about to put up with that again. Looks like my reasoning and timing were both pretty good.

I found E. J. Dionne’s Washington Post column in reaction to the Brooklyn subway shooting yesterday grimly amusing. He declaims that our politics needs to “sober up” about crime but I think he could dry out a bit himself. The blocker for me in his column was this:

But the conservative politicians who work relentlessly to tie their moderate and progressive foes to slogans such as “defund the police” — which is currently being advocated by virtually no one active in politics — reject national action on weapons.

The problem is that it is not, as Mr. Dionne, suggests here, just a Republican talking point. This: “currently being advocated by virtually no one active in politics” is factually untrue. At least a dozen members of the House Progressive Caucus continue to advocate defunding the police. As this Forbes article makes clear, local elected officials have actually taken action to defund the police. Here’s a quick summary:

Chicago, Illinois

The city spent $17.3 million between 2015 and 2020 to guard “unnamed city officials.” That’s as Mayor Lori Lightfoot said she’s opposed to defunding police while – we found – 400 police officers positions were quietly cut during 2020.

San Francisco, California

The city spent $12.4 million between 2015 and 2020 to protect the mayor, London Breed. That’s as San Francisco officials promised to divest $120 million from police over two years and reallocate the money into health programs and workforce training.

The mayor’s police security detail cost spiked nearly $1 million over the past five-years.

The police department wouldn’t say how many officers were assigned. However, the city spent $1.7 million (2015); $417,489 (2016); $2.5 million (2017); $2.7 million (2018); $2.5 million (2019); and $2.6 million in 2020.

New York City, New York

The city slashed $1 billion from its $6 billion police budget in 2021, reallocating $354 million to mental health, homelessness and education services. The cuts mostly haven’t yet materialized.

That’s while Mayor Bill de Blasio sports a NYPD security detail. However, the NYPD has not yet responded to our open records request with more detailed cost information.

While de Blasio traveled the country during his failed 2020 presidential campaign, his police detail reportedly cost taxpayers $358,000. His wife and son also have security details, while his daughter canceled her protection a few years ago.

Baltimore, Maryland

The city spent $3.6 million in 2020 for 14 police to cover the Mayor, Brendon Scott; the States Attorney, Marilyn Mosby; and the Police Commissioner, Michael Harrison. Yet, Baltimore has eliminated about $22 million from its police budget. This story first aired on Fox Baltimore.

Protection for the mayor included six officers and one sergeant, costing almost $2 million.

The state’s attorney has three officers and one sergeant, costing $1.3 million. The police commissioner’s security detail included two officers and one sergeant, costing $464,948.

San Diego, California

The city budgeted for 2021, $2.6 million for 12 full time officers to protect the mayor, Todd Gloria; the city council during meetings; and for city administration building security.

However, the mayor’s budget calls for cutting $4.3 million from the police overtime budget, and spending more than $1 million to set up the new police oversight body, the Commission on Police Practices.

Denver, Colorado

The mayor frequently argues against defunding the police. However, the national media highlights Denver’s policy as a prototype “defund the police” model. The city is beta testing the use of healthcare workers to respond to domestic mental health calls instead of police.

Mayor Michael Hancock’s security detail is comprised of one sergeant and six detectives. In the last six years, the security cost taxpayers nearly $4.2 million: $621,399 (2015); $643,092 (2016); $716,262 (2017); $716,487 (2018); $740,737 (2019); and $746,743 (2020).

Other cities around the country

City spokespeople in St. Louis, MO; Durham, NC; Madison, WI; Rochester, NY and Norman, OK said their officials don’t have a police detail.

In the remaining 20 cities, spokespeople either confirmed that they have police details and included expenditures, or have not yet responded in detail to our open records request. Only one city (Salt Lake) rejected our request.

Our auditors at OpenTheBooks.com continue to follow up with these cities:

In Minneapolis, MN where George Floyd was killed, the city cut $8 million from the police budget to launch a mental health team to respond to certain 911 calls.

In Oakland, CA the city council cut the police budget by $14.6 million, while considering larger cuts down the road.

Portland, OR, cut $15 million from its budget and disbanded a gun violence reduction unit and transit team that had been accused of over-policing Black communities, among other cuts.

The mayor’s 2021 budget for Milwaukee, WI, cut 120 police officers, mostly through attrition and not hiring new officers, cutting about $430,000 from the overall budget. That followed 60 police jobs cut in 2020.

Atlanta, GA, Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms said her city has already reallocated around 50% of their corrections budgets to social services and community enhancement initiatives over the past several years, instead of those services being led by police officers.

Georgia banned defunding police – which it defined as cutting budgets by more than 5% in one year or cumulatively across five years.

In Seattle, WA, councilmembers initially pledged to meet activists’ demands and cut the police budget by 50%, but ultimately backtracked, passing a reduction of about 20%. They left vacancies unfilled and moved certain functions, like parking enforcement, out of the police budget.

Los Angeles, CA, approved a $150 million budget cut from its $1.86 billion proposed budget.

A $15 million police budget cut hit Washington D.C., where the Defund the Police movement became a hot button issue in the run-up to the 2020 election.

Philadelphia, PA slashed police funding by $33 million; Hartford, CT cut $1 million from its $40 million budget; and Salt Lake City, UT reduced its police budget by $5.3 million and denied our Freedom of Information Act request.

Austin, TX cut about $20 million from the police department, and moved another $80 million by shifting certain services out of law enforcement.

In Dallas, TX the city council kept the budget mostly intact but cut $7 million from the $24 million overtime budget and reallocated for other uses the in department.

Camden, NJ, was ahead of the curve, disbanding its police force in 2013, laying off all its police and handing its policing over to the county.

What would be factually accurate is that Democratic pols have learned that the words “defund the police” are a political liability so they’re avoiding them without rejecting the actual policy of defunding the police. Such sophistry might fool the rubes but it won’t improve the quality of our political discourse or our policies. Or reduce crime.

I agree with Mr. Dionne that we need to “sober up” our discussion of crime. We won’t accomplish that by replacing Republican talking points with Democratic ones.