Andrew Olmsted thows out an interesting aside:
The more I look at history, the more I come to believe that we could have avoided just about every war in our history had we chosen to do so. The decisions would have come with costs: staying out of the Civil War, for example, might have meant the end of the United States as we know it. Nonetheless, Lincoln could have avoided fighting that war had he gone along with conventional wisdom and agreed to let the South go. In some cases … it’s pretty clear in retrospect that we made some good choices …. In other cases … it’s pretty clear that we acted almost entirely from a desire to be an imperial power. In plenty of other cases the question is far more difficult: were our decisions to defend South Korea and South Vietnam good wars of choice or bad ones?
An Australian writer some years ago (sorry, can’t remember whom) made an interesting point: understanding why wars break out requires understanding why peace breaks out. If it is so difficult to stop a war when it hasn’t started, how is it that a war that has been in progress for years can be stopped? The reason, he asserted, is found in the notion of war as a continuum of non-war international relations. When a nation decides it can get more from fighting than it will lose, it is willing to fight. When two nations are willing to fight, there is almost a certainty of war.
In other words, wars start when two (or more) nations aren’t willing to give up what they might gain by fighting. Once one (or more) of those nations realizes that it will gain the most, or lose the least, by giving up, that side gives up.
History seems to bear out this line of argument, and leaders (as opposed to some of their followers) seem to be pretty rational about decisions to go to war. This indicates that our best bet to quell the Ba’athist part of the Iraq war, at least, would be to give the Ba’athists hope for non-reprisal and some shot at political integration. For the jihadis, being religious zealots, we probably won’t be able to do better than kill them or drive them out.
In any case, I don’t think it will take more than another two years to bring Iraq to the point of relative peace and stability. I hope I am correct in this.