That’s my assessment of what’s going on in the war in Ukraine right now. The Russians are overstating their preparedness for the Ukrainians’ counteroffensive and the casualties that the Ukrainians have taken in the operation. The Russians are understating their own casualties both in terms of lives and equipment as well as the significance of the territory from which they’ve been forced to withdraw. They may also be overstating the involvement of Western forces in the intelligence, planning, and execution of the operation.
However, the Russians aren’t the only ones overstating and understating. The Ukrainians are overstating Russian casualties and the significance of the operation and understating their own casualties.
Even if the Ukrainians continue to receive material support from NATO, a war of attrition probably favors the Russians.
Would have been in 100% agreement on the war of attrition until a few months ago but I have really been impressed by the willingness and the ability of the Ukrainians to fight. They really dont want to be forced to join Russia. Couple that with the underperformance of Russian troops and I dont think its a given anymore. I think it still favors Russia but they are going to have to mobilize a lot more troops and that may have political fallout.
Steve
First, Russia has only committed about 60,000 troops out of their army of 300,00 or so. Second, second the troops in the north are Donbas militias, amounting to another 60,00 or so. Third, Ukrainian losses are very much higher than Russia’s. Kherson and Kharkov are disasters for Kiev.
In the long run, Russia wins and dictates terms to Ukraine, assuming there still is a Ukraine. If we are really stupid, we get a nuclear war that destroys, Europe, Russia, and the US. Gnon and China laugh.
Most likely, the EU economy crashes, and there a famine in Europe. The collapse of the EU drags the whole world into a Second Great Depression, worse than the first.
Bob, can I have some of what you’re smoking?
There are so many conflicting reports emanating from Ukraine regarding who is winning or losing the battle over there. One constant, though, is that there is an enormous amount of public suffering and infrastructure ruin going on in a war that shouldn’t have happened. Furthermore, this war is being primarily supported, through funding and armaments, by the US – a country carrying a 31 trillion debt and an out-of-control border invasion as well. I really don’t follow how the Biden Administration prioritizes this country’s “to do†list.
Propaganda is a tool of war, so consider the source.
Russia has problems with other breakaway provinces and others who haven’t acted but may be encouraged by massive troop movements to the Ukrainian war.
Reports are out of attempts on Putin’s life, a rather serious distraction.
IOW, Russia has other ongoing security commitments and I wouldn’t expect Putin to place all of his bets on one roll of the dice.
Conditions are looking better for a cease fire if Zelenski can get Ukrainians to dial down their enthusiasm.