Over Except for the Killing

George Friedman weighs in on the attempts to negotiate an end to the conflict produced by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine:

The war isn’t exactly over because the fighting continues. However, unless the Russian army suddenly evolves into a more effective force, or unless the U.S. or Europe sends massive forces to drive Russia out, the lines on the map are more or less fixed. The new borders are a reality. And everyone needs to accept those realities if they want peace talks to succeed. There are other demands the Europeans can make that Russia will not accept – which shows them to be more honorable than the Americans, who just want the war to end and to do business with a weakened Russia – and there are other issues that can be negotiated. Some of these, such as the size of the Ukrainian military, can and will likely be ignored.

There is one last dimension to be considered. Russia is a nuclear power, and during the Cold War, Russia and the U.S. took every precaution to avoid posing a profound threat to each other. They dueled in the so-called Third World, but aside from the Cuban missile crisis, they never threatened to put each other in an untenable position out of fear of a desperate nuclear response. Eastern Ukraine and the Crimean Peninsula are simply not worth going to the brink, as we used to say in the Cold War.

In the 1970s, the U.S. negotiated endlessly with North Vietnam over a war it long knew it could not win. The U.S. has learned from that, I think, that diplomatic pride is not worth the cost of lives. Russia cannot occupy Ukraine, Ukraine cannot force the Russians out, and the negotiations must acknowledge as much. Putin will say he does not need peace, and Europe will be outraged that America admits the inadmissible – that the war is over. But this is all posturing. Those who want the war to continue unless their terms are met are bluffing a busted flush. The war is over, except for the killing.

I disagree with Mr. Friedman only on some particulars. I don’t believe that Russia’s objective was to conquer Ukraine. I believe it was to subordinate Ukraine and, failing that, to, in John Mearsheimer’s words, “wreck it”. I also think that Ukraine’s objective has not just been to retain all of its pre-2014 territory but to create an ethnic state where there has never been one.

As I have said before I think the United States should continue to provide military aid to Ukraine with the objectives of preventing Russia from winning outright and providing Ukraine with the strongest foreseeable position for negotiations. If our European allies are dissatisfied with U. S. objectives, they should send their own troops to fight against the Russians.