For a really divergent view of COVID-19 check out this article at Medium by Justin Hart who presents some data suggesting that it’s circulating in the population for at least a year and is, indeed, one of the explanations for the exceptionally virulent flu seasons we’ve had the last couple of years:
Influenza surveillance across the country nationally shows a significant increase YoY from the 2018–2019 season and seems to be challenging the severe 2017–2018 season. For reference, the flu “season†usually starts the last weeks of September and goes until April or May.
If that’s the case, the efforts to contain the virus are not only too late but well over a year too late. I have no idea whether any of this is true or not. As I’ve been saying we just don’t know what we don’t know.
The contra argument is from DNA sequencing, the most recent common ancestor of the virus in Italy, China, US was dated to Nov of last year.
Not buying it, unless it mutated since then, but if you use that theory you can explain anything. Besides the DNA story we should have seen the ICUs overflowing and higher death rates. Look at the most recent NEJM study. 5% end up in ICU and half of those on a vent.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032
Steve
Economic collapse is now the bigger threat. DOW is down again this morning 800 pts, putting it near 20,000. All the Trump era growth is gone. Everyone has lost over 30% of their retirement savings.
A large portion of the people in the service economic are out of work. There are 130 million workers in the US, and 10% of those are in the restaurant business alone. Leisure/hospitality and retail trade each account for another 10%. So our government idled at least 30% of the work.
These statistics indicate an actual Great Depression is at hand.
PS. I see you have reelected the corrupt Kim Foxx. What is the difference between Chicago and Baltimore, other than you have more criminals in power and in the streets?
PPS. What haven’t you left?
I’d like to believe it’s just another variety of flu, but how then can we explain what’s happening in Iran? I think the regime wanted to believe that but cascading illness forced them to admit and take measures.
Kim Fox was re-elected! Unbelievable.
Bob Sykes raises an issue with a lot of tentacles.
Consider a hypothetical –
What if instead of trying to quarantine 330 million people we inverted the task: quarantine the vulnerable, perhaps 30 million people. Quarantine of the general population isn’t working; all have seen the pictures and interviews, or even NYC. We are told most of the population will be asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. And the current strategy is coming at costs approaching the risks and costs we are trying to avoid. Its probably a more manageable task.
Many of those in the vulnerable group are already in identifiable, sequestered venues: nursing homes, assisted living and other senior housing. Don’t let the carriers near them. Expend our resources in providing food and medicines to them in place, not subsidizing the havoc being created by full country quarantine. If the government is in the business of dictating to small businesses it can surely be in the business of dictating to the vulnerable portion of the population.
In the 2017-2018 flu season the CDC says we lost 60,000. We have lost 115 so far, yet we are following a strategy with other (huge) costs and destined to fail its initial intent. Something is wrong here.