At RealClearPolkcy William Taylor points out something that hadn’t occurred to me. One-term presidents are becoming increasingly common. Four of the last eight former presidents served one term (or less). If you assume that President Biden will only serve a single term (likely considering his age), it will be five of the last nine. Is that the trend of the future?
Normalizing the four-year presidency may have its advantages. Growing economic and military concerns from great power competition contribute to the need for a flexible, responsive, and potentially unpredictable executive and commander-in-chief. A revolving door of presidents allow for more diversity of individuals and philosophies over a briefer period of time. Presidents can focus on enacting the immediate policies elected upon instead of weighing how their actions will impact their viability for a second term.
I think the more concerning question is the advanced age of recent presidents. Biden was older at the beginning of his first term than any president in history but so was Trump. I think that’s a product of zeitgeist, characteristics of the different age cohorts, and some bad strategy on the part of the major political parties.
I think that not seeking a second term will continue to be rare. Whether it will become increasingly difficult to be re-elected I have no idea.
I wish instead it were one, six year term.
I think we’re stuck with the present four year term with the possibility of one additional term. A two year term would be simply too short. A single eight year term would be too long. A six year term would overlap with some cohort of senators.
OK.
Go five and really screw up the political calculus.
Do I hear 7? 7……..7……..7….