The piece in the Washington Post is characterized as “seven opinions on the war in Ukraine”. In actuality it’s the same opinion expressed seven different ways: Ukraine will win its war with Russia. How could it not with the morale of the Ukrainians as high as it is and the West providing whatever weapons they need? If the views of the retired general staff as quoted by Daniel Davis at 1945 are being represented accurately, they hold the same view. Here’s a sample snippet:
Earlier this week in a Washington Post op-ed, Hertling plainly stated Ukraine “will win the war.†The reason for his declarative optimism? Russia won’t make the changes necessary to win “simply because it can’t.â€
The Russian military, the former general claimed, “reflects the character and values of the society†from which it was drawn, and Russians are incapable of learning lessons. The good general seems to have forgotten that Russia, when sufficiently threatened, destroyed France’s Napoleonic armies in 1812 and Germany’s vaunted Wehrmacht in 1945.
Lt. Col. Davis disagrees:
Too many of today’s retired general officers seem to still believe they are dealing with a foreign head of state like Saddam Hussein, Muammar Qaddafi, or Bashar al-Assad, none of whom had or have the power to do any meaningful harm to the U.S. or NATO. Vladimir Putin, regardless of how much many in the West may detest him and blame him for the war in Ukraine, is not in that category by virtue of his nuclear arsenal.
Moreover, as has been graphically demonstrated over the past year of war in which Russia has struggled to possess even a fifth of one bordering nation, Moscow does not represent any credible conventional threat to the NATO alliance. Even with a major mobilization, Putin will be hard-pressed to capture all the Donbas; there is presently no chance for him even to capture all of Ukraine. It is concerning that our generals don’t seem to grasp this clear military reality.
If the objective is, as Ukrainian President Zelensky has averred, a restoration of control by Ukraine of its territory prior to 2014, it’s unclear to me how that can be made to happen without direct involvement by NATO. Ukraine and Russia are presently engaged in a struggle which both parties consider existential. The gravest question to my mind is what is actually existential for each side? I am convinced that Russia believes that holding Crimea is existential for it; they are not bluffing or posturing. Do they see Donetsk and Luhansk the same way? If recovering Donetsk and Luhansk existential for the Ukrainians? Crimea?
Without some change in the objectives of both combatants, I can only imagine that the war will continue for a long time.
Besides Crimea, Russia has “legally” incorporated four more oblasts into its own national territory. They will not relinquish those territories, and their official military policy is to use nuclear weapons first, before anyone else does, in order to retain Russian territories.
Current American war policy in Ukraine can only end in a nuclear war, which would destroy all of Europe and North America and the European part of Russia.
Our leaders are simply ignoring everything Russia says, and they are totally ignorant about everything Russian, especially its military, its economy, and the patriotism of its people.
It certainly does seem quite an unresolvable problem, doesn’t it?
I have not heard one credible analyst or observer express the view that Ukraine can, or that Russia will allow, the repatriation of Crimea. Unless Zelensky is simply posturing positions seem irreconcilable.
So consider what the US can control. Much has been made of Bidens trip. “Braveâ€. “Historic†and such. I’m not so impressed. Others even including his wife have preceded him. But let’s just stipulate it was a warranted visit. What on the real policy side offers hope of resolution? Whatever it takes/however long it takes is perpetuating a meat grinder given the two sides posture. That seems less leadership and constructive and more bluster with other peoples treasure. Apparently we have learned nothing in Viet Nam, the Middle East or Afghanistan etc. I am cynical enough to believe it’s a horrible mix of ego, stupidity and lining the pockets of the defense contractors. I think Joe needs to have a come to Jesus with Zelensky. Yeah, right.
I’m not optimistic. And it’s so unnecessary.
PBS Frontline has a series of talks concerning this topic, this one with Timothy Snyder is very insightful
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=um-SEQDQidM
Apparently we have learned nothing in Viet Nam, the Middle East or Afghanistan etc. I am cynical enough to believe it’s a horrible mix of ego, stupidity and lining the pockets of the defense contractors
What we have learned is how to drag wars on forever by exploiting them on behalf of those who benefit most from them – mainly power brokers and defense contractors. People are already speculating more money will be given to Ukraine than was spent on the Afghanistan folly.
I keep harping on the fact we have many places to invest in, helping our own citizens and curing the many problems we have domestically – a growing illegal immigrant invasion causing increased fentanyl deaths and human trafficking; homeless encampments everywhere; infrastructure neglect; increasing crime; environmental disasters; a growing unsustainable debt crisis along with inflation. There is an endless line of people here who have been wounded by the myopic visions, unsympathetic outreach, and nonsensical policies of the Biden Administration. Couple their poor performance to meet fundamental needs here, it simply baffles the brain why people aren’t rebelling more over Biden’s slobbering attention to the 3rd most corrupt country in the world, thousands of miles away!
Last i looked it was Ukraine soldiers fighting and not US soldiers like in Viet Nam. Dont think the analogy makes much sense.
Steve
I guess Ukrainian soldiers and citizens, caught and dying in a meat grinder perpetuated by US policy, don’t mean much. Expendable.
Ghoulish.
So Ukraine isn’t allowed to fight in defense of their own country? After seeing the dead bodies of civilians with hands tied behind their backs and hundreds of bombing of civilian sites they wouldn’t want to fight? The Russian invasion provides them the motivation and inspiration to fight. Our arms let them do that. You, OTOH, would be happy to let them be crushed by Russia and thousands more tortured to death and lose their freedom.
BTW, feel free to go to The Wall and let everyone their know they were expendables.
Steve