Obama Redux Redux

Let me put my cards on the table right at the start. I think that the U. S.’s biggest foreign policy challenges are

  • Reindustrializing America. If you don’t think that’s a foreign policy challenge, consider that U. S. prestige is founded, not on admiration of American values, but on admiration of the American economy and military might. Doing that will be opposed tooth and nail by our notional European allies. Doing what we need to do will also probably catch flak from the WTO and the BANANA wing of the environmental movement.
  • Reassure our Asian allies (Japan, South Korea, India, Philippines, etc.) in the face of an increasingly aggressive China.
  • Build better relationships with our Central and South American neighbors and do what we can to help their economies and encourage political liberalization. The job-seekers masquerading as asylum-seekers showing up on our borders are best deterred by increasing the opportunities available to them at home. And we do need to deter them.
  • Butt out of other people’s civil wars or, worse, wars of aggression.

Armed with that let’s turn to Walter Russell Mead’s latest Wall Street Journal column. In the column Dr. Mead expresses skepticism of the Biden Administration present course on foreign policy:

The Biden team is driven by conviction. It really believes that America’s leading position in the world rests on global admiration for U.S. values. The administration thinks America’s alliance network is based on those values and Washington’s commitment to a multilateral approach. President Trump’s “America First” foreign policy, in this view, was an all-out assault on the foundations of U.S. power.

Let us hope that Mr. Biden’s leadership will strengthen alliances and rally the rattled forces of democracy against rival authoritarian great powers. But talk is easy; work is hard.

No president in recent decades made as many inspiring speeches about democracy and human rights as President Obama—and yet no administration in recent decades saw authoritarian powers make so many gains. In 2011 Mr. Obama put down a marker in Syria: “The time has come for President Assad to step aside.” A decade later, propped up by Russia and Iran, Bashar Assad is still there.

It is very well for Mr. Biden to say he isn’t Mr. Trump, but what he needs to demonstrate to the world is that he isn’t Mr. Obama. The Obama administration’s mix of tough words and fumbled deeds in places like Egypt and Syria—along with its serial failures to curb Russian and Chinese power plays from Crimea to the South China Sea—badly diminished American prestige. The prospect that the new administration will similarly dissipate Washington’s energy and credibility in empty gestures and moralistic word salads quietly worries U.S. allies (and delights and encourages American adversaries).

He barely scratches the surface of the shortfalls in the Obama Administration’s foreign policy which included:

  • Failing to recognize that nation-building in Afghanistan is a Sisyphean task which the Trump Administration was unable to call to a conclusion and which threatens to be reinvigorated.
  • Lack of attention to the myriad economic and political problems in Central and South America.
  • Intervention in civil wars in Libya and Syria and a war of aggression of the KSA against Yemen.
  • Expansion of drone warfare (which the Trump Administration also underwrote).

Do we really want to return to tho
se? I should add that there’s an open question as to whether Israel will actually attack Iran if the Biden Administration attempt to return to the JCPOA.

One more point. I there’s something to be learned from the Carter Administration, it’s that although human rights and democracy promotion may inform American foreign policy, we can’t let it become the extent of American foreign policy.

7 comments… add one
  • Andy Link

    I agree with a lot of that, particularly the goals we should be focusing on. I definitely agree that US “leadership” for many in the FP establishment values-based and wrongly assumes that other countries will follow. America needs to carefully consider and recalibrate the extent to which we need to continue to subsidize the security of other countries, particularly those in Europe who face no real external threats. Part of it though is the legacy of NATO expansion which the US wanted a lot more than Europeans – so now we’re in the position of being obligated to defend a bunch of little countries that most of Europe doesn’t want to actually defend.

    It is positive that the Biden administration has said they are going to at least reduce support for the Saudi and UAE war in Yemen.

    Afghanistan is still in thrall to domestic political hot-potato and I don’t see us ever pulling out until our leadership thinks it can do so while saving face. I don’t expect anything to change there. If the Taliban were smarter, they’d promise whatever is necessary to get the US to leave, wait two years, and then move to take over the country again.

    Central and South America should get a lot more coverage than it does. I don’t think economics is the primary problem there, it’s a lack of effective governance. There are significant chunks of Mexico, Guatemala, and others where the government doesn’t have any actual authority.

    Biden may wish it, but I’m skeptical about Iran returning to the JPOA. Why would they when the agreement is only good for as long as the Biden administration is in office?

    It’s early days still, so we’ll have to see what develops. Trump (and probably America) was lucky that he faced no real FP crises during his term. I don’t know the odds, but Biden shouldn’t bet that he won’t face any either.

  • CuriousOnlooker Link

    Perhaps I am seeing things which are not; but the post leaves out Russia.

    From the actual events of the last 3 weeks, this is the where the highest risk of miscalculation could occur.

    And there are not any easy policy paths to be had vis-a-vis Russia.

  • steve Link

    Agree with some of it. I dont really think we had that much influence on Syria and Egypt but since he doesnt like Obama I guess he can blame him. Agree strongly that Obama ignored Central and South America too much, but that has been true of every POTUS except for the one who did illegal arms deals and in that case we would have been better if there had been ignorance.

    Also agree that I dont see Iran going back to the JPOA. They will just do whatever they want to do. We cant hold up our end. Israel will continue sending out notices like they have for the last 25 years that Iran will have nukes any day and they will attack Iran if they think they can do so without fear of major repercussions regardless of JPOA or not.

    Steve

  • I definitely agree that US “leadership” for many in the FP establishment values-based and wrongly assumes that other countries will follow.

    I think they have confused lack of U. S. leadership with actually is the situation: a complete and utter lack of followership. Few countries see anything to gain for themselves by following the U. S. lead.

  • Andy Link

    “Perhaps I am seeing things which are not; but the post leaves out Russia.”

    My two cents on that are these:

    – We should stop shitting on Russia’s strategic interests at every opportunity as we have been doing for 25 years. A substantial part of Russia’s revanchism is a reaction to that. Except for nuclear weapons, Russia is not a serious strategic threat.

    – Regarding nukes, we need to have a productive relationship to manage and hopefully reduce our nuclear arsenals. At the very least we should want to take steps to avoid an escalatory spiral and other situations that might literally blow up the world.

  • I have been saying both of those things about our policy WRT Russia for decades, just in stronger terms, for example there is no more important bilateral relationship in the world than that between the U. S. and Russia.

  • Drew Link

    “… there is no more important bilateral relationship in the world than that between the U. S. and Russia.”

    Heh. True enough. And yet, when Hillary Clinton needed a political fix to her email problem, but failed and the Democrats needed Plan B, the Party beclowned themselves and marched arm in arm down the Russia-as-boogeyman trail making a mockery of the notion of said important relationship.

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