STAT has convened a panel of experts on infectious disease, epidemiology, and pandemic preparedness to solicit their views on how, looking forward, we might “avoid the mistakes, poor decisions, and incompetence of this spring”. Here are their recommendations, summarized from the link above:
- Prioritize early warnings
- Pay attention to small numbers
- Act fast
- Act fast strategically
- Do a way better job in minority and high-poverty communities
Rather than fisking that list, I would only challenge them to do one thing. In advance produce a cast-iron method of distinguishing between statistical anomalies and the earliest phases of exponential growth. I can imagine the vague outlines of a realtime reporting system fed organically from data that providers actually have incentives to produce on a timely basis but only the vaguest outlines. Otherwise I have no idea of how that might be done.
The experts won’t say it; but how about striving to maintain credibility by stressing what they don’t know, and leaving decisions on trade offs to decision makers.
We still don’t know how disastrous the decision by many public health officials to condemn in the harshest terms one group of protestors (who wanted to reopen the businesses) while giving approbation to another group of protestors (who are fighting racism).
I believe only Fauci has had the sense to say all mass gatherings are dangerous in terms of coronavirus spread; no matter the reason.
These public health officials better hope they do not have to deal with a second wave and have to sell strict lockdowns again.
I think it’s fair to predict that it will be disastrous regardless of the outcome. If there is an outbreak of COVID-19 following these demonstrations, it will harm the credibility of the “experts” and elected officials who outright rejected the notion of criticizing the demonstrators on those grounds. If there is NO outbreak of COVID-19 following these demonstrations, it will harm the credibility of “experts” who predicted there would be an outbreak and politicians who insisted on strict lockdowns.
Has their been a poll on this or something I missed? Most of the people I hear asked about it agreed, like Fauci, that going out to the protests was probably risky. All said wear a mask if you do go out.
Steve
Do some google / twitter searches.
Here is an article
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/06/04/public-health-protests-301534
Or the letter from 1200 public health experts across the country
https://slate.com/technology/2020/06/protests-coronavirus-pandemic-public-health-racism.html
When Politico and Slate notice the inconsistency….
Here even solitary camping and lake fishing was prohibited until recently to combat the virus.
So now mass protests are good?
The difference I see is that fisherman never threatened violence. Fear moves mountains.