According to NBC’s whip count a majority of the House now favors impeachment:
Two hundred and nineteen House Democrats and one independent — a majority of the chamber’s 435 members — now favor some kind of impeachment action against President Donald Trump, according to an NBC News tally.
House Democrats reached the milestone a day after Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced a formal impeachment inquiry into the president following claims that he might have withheld aid to Ukraine to pressure officials there to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden and his son.
What does “impeachment action” mean? It means either impeachment or an impeachment inquiry:
That nearly all House Democrats support some kind of impeachment action represents a significant development in the chamber’s push forward with official impeachment proceedings.
But that doesn’t mean they will all vote to impeach the president.
Some House Democrats, as well as Rep. Justin Amash, I-Mich., have asked for an impeachment inquiry to examine any evidence of wrongdoing, while others have favored the House Judiciary Committee investigation. Still others have called for drafting articles of impeachment against Trump. The different terms the lawmakers are using to discuss the issue make it unclear how they will vote if articles of impeachment were to go before the full House. The Democratic holdouts, meanwhile, include several of those in competitive districts — some who flipped seats last year.
Since to proceed with an inpeachment inquiry only requires a simple majority, it appears that an inquiry we shall have as was apparent from the moment that Speaker Pelosi announced her support.
The important remaining questions are where will the inquiry be held (special panel, House floor, or Judiciary committee), whether the members of the House will be able to restrain themselves (I don’t believe they will; many Democrats genuinely hate this president and Speaker Pelosi has been reluctant to bring her caucus to heel), how long it will be (too short and it will look like a farce, too long and people will lose interest not to mention interfere with the campaigning schedule), and whether the inevitable impeachment vote will draw any Republicans.
Will the also inevitable publishing of the name of the “whistle-blower” materially impact the proceedings or opinion? Frankly, I doubt it, particularly if the individual is a Democrat or a #NeverTrumper.
The publishing of the “whistle-blower” won’t change the course of impeachment – but it could affect the Democratic nomination.
If it was a Warren partisan (or worse, works for Warren) — Biden may hold a personal grudge towards Warren for dragging his sole surviving son into this. Even if his nomination looks ever less likely — his refusal to cooperate with Warren until there is no choice could have huge implications.
Another question is how will this affect the budget?
I previously held the view the budget would be settled before impeachment; lest a shutdown occur during impeachment and the Democratic House gets the blame for it.
But now — the budget framework agree in July has a high chance of collapsing. In that case; a year long CR will be the eventual alternative. But the Democrats would probably prefer hitting their head on a wall then a CR which keeps the status quo — i.e. Trump continues to use the emergency declaration to build bits of the wall.
“Trump continues to use the emergency declaration to build bits of the wall.”
Since he is using military family money to build it they might be OK with the optics. (Ok, this could have changed as I am not following this closely now, but the original plan called for using military family money.)
Steve